Rational risk‐aversion: Good things come to those who weight

Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 108 (3):697-725 (2024)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

No existing normative decision theory adequately handles risk. Expected Utility Theory is overly restrictive in prohibiting a range of reasonable preferences. And theories designed to accommodate such preferences (for example, Buchak's (2013) Risk‐Weighted Expected Utility Theory) violate the Betweenness axiom, which requires that you are indifferent to randomizing over two options between which you are already indifferent. Betweenness has been overlooked by philosophers, and we argue that it is a compelling normative constraint. Furthermore, neither Expected nor Risk‐Weighted Expected Utility Theory allow for stakes‐sensitive risk‐attitudes—they require that risk matters in the same way whether you are gambling for loose change or millions of dollars. We provide a novel normative interpretation of Weighted‐Linear Utility Theory that solves all of these problems.

Other Versions

No versions found

Links

PhilArchive

    This entry is not archived by us. If you are the author and have permission from the publisher, we recommend that you archive it. Many publishers automatically grant permission to authors to archive pre-prints. By uploading a copy of your work, you will enable us to better index it, making it easier to find.

    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 105,768

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Risk aversion and the long run.Johanna Thoma - 2018 - Ethics 129 (2):230-253.
Risk, rationality and expected utility theory.Richard Pettigrew - 2015 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 45 (5-6):798-826.
Measuring Belief and Risk Attitude.Sven Neth - 2019 - Electronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science 297:354–364.
Risk-taking and tie-breaking.Ryan Doody - 2023 - Philosophical Studies 180 (7):2079-2104.
Normative Decision Theory.Edward Elliott - 2019 - Analysis 79 (4):755-772.
Risk and Tradeoffs.Lara Buchak - 2014 - Erkenntnis 79 (S6):1091-1117.
Can risk aversion survive the long run?Hayden Wilkinson - 2022 - Philosophical Quarterly 73 (2):625-647.

Analytics

Added to PP
2023-06-22

Downloads
343 (#88,849)

6 months
57 (#102,402)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author Profiles

Timothy Luke Williamson
University of Oxford
Christopher Bottomley
Princeton University

Citations of this work

Of marbles and matchsticks.Harvey Lederman - forthcoming - In Tamar Szabó Gendler, John Hawthorne, Julianne Chung & Alex Worsnip, Oxford Studies in Epistemology, Vol. 8. Oxford University Press.
Welfare and autonomy under risk.Pietro Cibinel - 2025 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 110 (2):526-551.
Better Foundations for Subjective Probability.Sven Neth - 2024 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 103 (1):1-22.

View all 8 citations / Add more citations

References found in this work

The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1954 - Synthese 11 (1):86-89.
In Defense of Fanaticism.Hayden Wilkinson - 2022 - Ethics 132 (2):445-477.
What Is Risk Aversion?H. Orii Stefansson & Richard Bradley - 2019 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 70 (1):77-102.

View all 17 references / Add more references