Abstract

This essay explores the thesis that the essence of the Soviet communist strategy remains immutable regardless of the developmental stage of the communist system, the Party leadership, or the composition of the top Party organs. It argues further that changes in the Soviet communist system have a cyclical character, oscillating between "malignant" phases of harsh terror and more relaxed phases of "lurking" communism in which terror is lessened, but not removed, and popular expectations are raised. Each cycle takes approximately a generation. A new, "malignant" phase is forecast for the near future which would bring about the demise of perestroika in the Soviet Union by 1993, concurrently with Gorbachev's likely removal from power.