Abstract

The central thesis of this book is that the argument that probability is insufficient to handle uncertainty in artificial intelligence (AI) is metaphysical in nature. Piscopo calls this argument against probability the non-adequacy claim and provides this summary of it [which first appeared in (Piscopo and Birattari 2008)]:Probability theory is not suitable to handle uncertainty in AI because it has been developed to deal with intrinsically stochastic phenomena, while in AI, uncertainty has an epistemic nature. (Piscopo (3))Piscopo uses the term “metaphysical” in the Popperian sense: the non-adequacy claim is metaphysical (rather than scientific) since it cannot be disproved (much less established) by observation or experiment.In Chapter 2, Piscopo recounts some of the relevant history and issues in philosophy of science. There is little that is controversial here. One problem is that when addressing the question of how a particular probabilistic model is tested, Piscopo limits herself ..