Abstract

The illusory truth effect is exhibited when repeated exposure to a statement increases an individual’s credence in that statement. While most investigations of the illusory truth effect focus on individuals’ belief formation, humans typically form beliefs within a social structure. This is particularly relevant because various social structures can give rise to repeated exposure to statements; e.g. one or two foundational papers might always be cited by a particular lab. So, how does the illusory truth effect influence learning and belief formation in a group? This paper uses network models to investigate this question. These models show that the illusory truth effect can be very detrimental to a group’s belief formation. The effect causes networks to prematurely settle on a belief, in part, through repeated exposure data points that are not independently generated. Previous research has indicated that the probability of such failures is near zero when networks are large or scientists are forced to explore unpopular and risky science. However, simulation results show that the harmful consequences of the illusory truth effect are robust even in large networks with mandatory exploration.