Abstract

This paper discusses a deterministic model of the spread of an infectious disease in a closed population that was proposed byKermack &McKendrick . The mathematical assumptions on which the model is based are listed and criticized. The ‘threshold theorem’ according to which an epidemic develops if, and only if, the initial population density exceeds a certain value determined by the parameters of the model, is discussed. It is shown that the theorem is not true. A weaker result is stated and proved.A new simplified version of the model is discussed. In this model it is assumed that an infected individual becomes infectious after a constant time and that it will removed after a constant time. Numerical simulations of this model show that the form of the fluctuations in the number of diseased individuals depends on the values of the parameters. The number of infectious individuals may oscillate up and down under certain circumstances. Necessary conditions for the number of infectious individuals to rise above previous levels are stated and proved