Explaining Things Probabilistically

The Monist 84 (2):208-217 (2001)
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Abstract

Human beings crave explanations of all sorts of things. If “probabilityis our very guide of life,” then probability must play a crucial role in explanation. There are, of course, many types of explanations, and scientific explanations are no doubt in the minority; nevertheless, they are sometimes enormously important. Carl G. Hempel and Paul Oppenheim’s 1948 classic, “Studies in the Logic of Explanation,” characterized one form of deductive explanation with considerable precision, as well as another, which they dealt with much less formally. They also explicitly acknowledged the need for statistical laws and statistical forms of scientific explanation, a topic lying beyond the scope of that essay.

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