Abstract

Subjects were asked to assess their subjective probability distributions for unknown parameters of Bernoulli processes. The processes were generated by random devices like, for instance, irregular dice. The assessments were based on two assessment techniques. One asked for the median and quartiles of the distributions, the other asked for the impact of four hypothetical samples. The main purpose of the study was to study the resulting two sets of distributions. The results show substantial differences between the distributions using the two techniques but these differences decreased as the experiment progressed