Abstract

ABSTRACTIt is conventional wisdom that the laws of physics that govern our everyday world are different from those that explain the smallest particles and forces. Alexander Wendt argues that, to the contrary, quantum theory in fact can apply to the larger-scale world, and to human behavior as well. An alluring possibility to be sure, but we may need multiple theories of different types to explain diverse human behavior and behavioral patterns. Theories, furthermore, can be self-confirming or self-denying. In quantum theory, classical physics, and social life, uncertainty looms large and political leaders in particular face multiple choices in dealing with it, including whether attempts to reduce uncertainty will change the world to their detriment. In these efforts, they often conflate estimates of likelihood with judgments of confidence and incorrectly assume that an estimate that an event is unlikely is flawed if the event actually occurs.