Abstract

While large statistical studies are able to identify the variables that are at play in the evaluation of the impact of third parties on conflict dynamics, they do less well in exploring how and explaining why they are influential. This chapter illustrates how “focused, structured comparison” can, through in-depth case studies, identify areas of current policy frameworks that require refinement and additional study. A comparison of conflict prevention efforts in Estonia, Ukraine and Moldova, three cases very similar in characteristics but very different in outcome, makes a persuasive case that existing frameworks are essentially one-dimensional and state-centric; they focus almost entirely on the intervening party and the target state. They do not adequately consider or account for the actions of sub-state actors such as minority groups, despite the fact that the minority is clearly a stakeholder. These findings allow for a re-conceptualization of conflict prevention policies and a shift toward a focus on what Kachuyevski terms multidimensional prevention.