Discounting Small Probabilities Solves the Intrapersonal Addition Paradox

Ethics 132 (1):204-217 (2021)
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Abstract

Nebel argues for the Repugnant Conclusion via the “Intrapersonal Repugnant Conclusion,” on which certainty of a mediocre life is better for individuals than a sufficiently small chance of an excellent life. In this article, I deny that acceptance of the Intrapersonal Repugnant Conclusion leads us to the Repugnant Conclusion. I point out that on many views which avoid the Repugnant Conclusion we should discount very small probabilities down to zero. If we do, then Nebel’s crucial premise of Ex Ante Pareto fails, because discounting at the individual level can fail to match up with discounting at the population level.

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Petra Kosonen
University of Texas at Austin

Citations of this work

Decision theory and de minimis risk.Martin Smith - 2024 - Erkenntnis 89 (6):2169-2192.
Saving Fanaticism.Kacper Kowalczyk - forthcoming - Australasian Journal of Philosophy.

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References found in this work

An impossibility theorem for welfarist axiologies.Gustaf Arrhenius - 2000 - Economics and Philosophy 16 (2):247-266.
An Intrapersonal Addition Paradox.Jacob M. Nebel - 2018 - Ethics 129 (2):309-343.

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