Guilt and costly apology: calculations of expected return

Abstract

This manuscript is intended as a technical supplement to Rosenstock and O'Connor. Calculations are presented for the expected return for strategic players of an iterated prisoner's dilemma which includes guilt-prone grim trigger players, who apologize when they accidentally defect, as well as fake apologizers who in fact act as defectors. See Rosenstock and O'Connor for a discussion of how the results presented here can be interpreted, using ESS analysis and exploring basins of attraction under the replicator dynamics, to help understand the conditions under which guilt can evolve. I hope for this note to both make it easier for others to understand and build on those results, and to demonstrate how expected returns can be calculated for various strategies in various games

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Sarita Rosenstock
University of Melbourne

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