Sleeping Beauty: a simple solution

Analysis 64 (1):8-10 (2004)
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Abstract

I defend the suggestion that the rational probability in the Sleeping Beauty paradox is one third. The reasoning in its favour is familiar: for every heads-waking, there are two tails-wakings. To complete the defense, I rebut the reasoning which purports to justify the competing suggestion – that the correct probability is half – by undermining its premise, that no new information has been received.

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Ruth Weintraub
Tel Aviv University