Sleeping Beauty: a simple solution

Analysis 64 (1):8-10 (2004)
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Abstract

I defend the suggestion that the rational probability in the Sleeping Beauty paradox is one third. The reasoning in its favour is familiar: for every heads-waking, there are two tails-wakings. To complete the defense, I rebut the reasoning which purports to justify the competing suggestion – that the correct probability is half – by undermining its premise, that no new information has been received.

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10.1093/analys/64.1.8

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Ruth Weintraub
Tel Aviv University

Citations of this work

Updating as Communication.Sarah Moss - 2012 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 85 (2):225-248.
Time-Slice Rationality and Self-Locating Belief.David Builes - 2020 - Philosophical Studies 177 (10):3033-3049.

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References found in this work

Sleeping beauty: Reply to Elga.David Lewis - 2001 - Analysis 61 (3):171–76.
The doomsday argument and the number of possible observers.Ken D. Olum - 2002 - Philosophical Quarterly 52 (207):164-184.
The End of the World.John Leslie - 2000 - Mind 109 (433):155-158.

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