In recent years, supply chain finance is exploited to solve the financing difficulties of small- and medium-sized enterprises. SME credit risk assessment is a critical part in the SCF system. The diffusion of SME credit risk may cause serious consequences, leading the whole supply chain finance system unstable and insecure. Compared with traditional credit risk assessment models, the supply chain relationship, credit condition of SME, and core enterprises should all be considered (...) to rate SME credit risk in SCF. Traditional methods mix all indicators from different index systems. They cannot give a quantitative result on how these index systems work. Furthermore, traditional credit risk assessment models are heavily dependent on the number of annotated SME data. However, it is implausible to accumulate enough credit risky SMEs in advance. In this paper, we propose an adaptive heterogenous multiview graph learning method to tackle the small sample size problem for SMEs’ credit risk forecasting. Three graphs are constructed by using indicators from supply chain operation, SME financial indicator, and nonfinancial indicator individually. All the graphs are integrated in an adaptive manner, providing a quantitative explanation on how the three parts cooperate. The experimental analysis shows that the proposed method has good performance for determining whether SME is risky or nonrisky in SCF. From the perspective of SCF, SME financing ability is still the main factor to determine the credit risk of SME. (shrink)

Credit theorists claim to explain the incompatibility of luck and knowledge and also what makes knowledge valuable. If the theory works as well as they think, it accomplishes a lot. Unsurprisingly, however, some epistemologists remain unsure. Jennifer Lackey, for instance, proposes a dilemma that suggests credit theories are either too strong or too weak. Her criticism has been hard to overcome. This paper suggests a modified account of knowledge as credit for true belief that allows credit (...) theorists to better counter Lackey’s criticism. I call my version of credit theory Risk Sensitive Credit. Under my account, an agent deserves credit just in case she believes truly on account of her reasonably accurate epistemic risk assessment. This assessment need not include higher order beliefs or even enter into conscious thought. Recent work in cognitive science, for instance, suggests that our visual faculties, in the absence of our direct awareness, work in accordance with a risk sensitive framework. This research will be referenced to help explain the dynamics of barn facade Gettier cases. (shrink)

This article examines the epistemology of risk assessment in the context of financial modelling for the purposes of making loan underwriting decisions. A financing request for a company in the paper and pulp industry is considered in some detail. The paper and pulp industry was chosen because it is subject to some specific risks that have been identified and studied by bankers, investors and managers of paper and pulp companies and certain features of the industry enable analysts to (...) quantify the impact of specific risk events of a given dimension on a company's future financial performance. While companies in other industries may be subject to similar risk factors, the impact of risk events may be more difficult to gauge in those industries. The ability of financial analysts to model the impact of a risk event, and hence quantify a credit risk, increases the predictive accuracy of the model. I argue that bankers and regulators should recognise the uncertainty associated with unquantifiable credit risk in financial models, and they should view this uncertainty as a credit risk factor in and of itself. Evaluating the relative degree to which credit risk is quantifiable in financial models is a potentially significant yet largely unrecognised tool for credit risk management. I consider some possible applications of this assessment tool for managing risk within the banking industry. (shrink)

The issues of the optimum rate between risk and profitability of bank business have been investigated. The bank operation peculiarities in risk and uncertain conditions are studied. There has been revealed a matter of risk as bank and economic term, it has been presented interlink between various risks and the necessity to improve the managerial process by bank credit risk has been justified. Practical algorithms for solving problems on possible bank credit risks prognosis have (...) been considered and there has been justified the reasonability of their using by banks at practical assessment of creditability of a borrower. A situational simulation of the part of bank's overdue loan debts under different conditions was carried out. The variants of possible developments of bank's credit portfolio during financial crisis were forecasted using conventional examples. According to the calculation banks have been offered to develop their own credit strategy by simulating various situations choosing the most convenient as to risk value as well as to minimize their credit risks and improving an assessment of creditability of borrowers in addition to assessment models, developed by a bank, well-known assessment models of the bankruptcy probabilities, which, by comparing all of them, give the clear picture of possible financial deterioration in future and to use A-calculation method which is based considering subjective factors which, not less than objective ones, can indicate the risk of the loan debts. (shrink)

Elizabeth Anderson exalts the transition from the aristocratic to the modern ethic of debt as one of the most significant cultural achievements of capitalism. Whereas the debitor was once forced to compromise his liberty, dignity, and equality, today the rights and freedoms of insolvents are legally protected, and disadvantaged members of the community can readily obtain credit without personal supplication. Anderson’s intuition was, until recently, widely shared. Then came the financial crisis of 2007-08 and the ensuing global recession, triggered (...) by mass defaults among “sub-prime” borrowers. Many had entered the mortgage market with no proof of income, no assets behind them, no down-payment, a chequered credit history, and a generally reduced repayment capacity. Suddenly a flurry of criticism was unleashed against the lowering of credit standards and the government programs which pressured lenders to service the poor. My aim in this paper is not to assess the democratization of credit from the point of view of economic efficiency or political prudence, but rather to provide a much needed ethical appraisal. Any number of reasons might be advanced for why a particular government policy is morally objectionable. I will concentrate on the least controversial reason conceivable: the policy violates the rights of citizens. Whether this is true of government-driven credit-democratization - specifically, whether it violates the rights of the lenders compelled to act as agents of the policy, the rights of the third parties exposed to the risks associated with the expansion of credit markets, or both – is the question that I take up here. (shrink)

The EU Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA) defines four risk categories for AI systems: unacceptable, high, limited, and minimal. However, it lacks a clear methodology for the assessment of these risks in concrete situations. Risks are broadly categorized based on the application areas of AI systems and ambiguous risk factors. This paper suggests a methodology for assessing AI risk magnitudes, focusing on the construction of real-world risk scenarios. To this scope, we propose to integrate the AIA (...) with a framework developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and related literature. This approach enables a nuanced analysis of AI risk by exploring the interplay between (a) risk determinants, (b) individual drivers of determinants, and (c) multiple risk types. We further refine the proposed methodology by applying a proportionality test to balance the competing values involved in AI risk assessment. Finally, we present three uses of this approach under the AIA: to implement the Regulation, to assess the significance of risks, and to develop internal risk management systems for AI deployers. (shrink)

Violence risk assessment tools are increasingly used within criminal justice and forensic psychiatry, however there is little relevant, reliable and unbiased data regarding their predictive accuracy. We argue that such data are needed to (i) prevent excessive reliance on risk assessment scores, (ii) allow matching of different risk assessment tools to different contexts of application, (iii) protect against problematic forms of discrimination and stigmatisation, and (iv) ensure that contentious demographic variables are not prematurely removed (...) from risk assessment tools. (shrink)

Competition in retail banking lending forces banks to constantly analyze the proposed loan products and loan products to competitors, to develop and introduce new versions of products, improve existing conditions, taking into account the changing needs of the population, the provision of new social groups of potential borrowers, uses of credit and other factors. In the process, the banks are increasingly collaborating with sales, service, insurance and other organizations providing credit in conjunction with other services. The specificity of (...) the emergence of different types of retail lending, their interrelation and interpenetration leads to the necessity of ordering and classification of retail banking loans, as well as its continuous improvement and additions. The choice of reasonable criteria differentiation of types of retail loans based on certain classifications is rather difficult, but important problem. Scientific approaches to the classification of bank loans illuminated by representatives of such scholars H. Babin, U. Dremova, A. Lavrushin, W. Lexis, E. Litvinov, M. Petukhov, A. Plyetinska, N. Syekirina, M. Chirkova, N. Shabanova and others. The article aims to systematize criteria for the classification of retail banking loans, which will increase the efficiency of banks through differentiated product range of loans to meet the needs of customers. After systematization and critical analysis of scientific approaches to the classification of retail banking loans formed a plurality of types of loans and are presented in the form of classification of retail loans, depending on the following conditions: bank control over how the borrower spends money; speed of the Credit application; credit facility; credit terms; support; method of payment; Terms of; method of charging interest; giving way; category of the borrower; the amount of the loan; currency loan; type of interest rate; method of evaluating creditworthiness; segment of the retail market; sales channel. The classification best reflects the diversity of the types of retail banking loans and can be used to diversify the credit risk of investments, development of various loan products for the effective organization of retail lending, as well as to develop a differentiated system of assessing the creditworthiness of private borrowers. (shrink)

The large-scale proliferation of China’s new type of agricultural entities has given rise to a higher demand for funds. Farmers have insufficient effective collateral, which makes it difficult for them to obtain sufficient loans. Chinese financial institutions have developed a biological asset mortgage loan business to cope with this situation. China has not considered biological mortgages but has been using real estate and asset mortgage models with strong realizability. This innovative financial business has achieved positive results since it was attempted, (...) but it also faces many risks. It is very important to comprehensively and accurately consider the risk factors of biological asset mortgage loans. Based on 1249 production and operation data samples of new agricultural entities in Zhejiang, Henan, and Shandong provinces, this study constructs an XGBoost model for empirical analysis and compares it with logical regression, support vector machine, and random forest algorithms to obtain the optimal model and feature importance value. According to the characteristic importance value, a biological asset mortgage loan risk assessment system with 4 primary indicators and 20 secondary indicators is established, which can effectively identify the biological asset mortgage loan risk of new agricultural entities. (shrink)

For the purpose of this analysis, risk assessment becomes the primary term and risk management the secondary term. The concept of risk management as a primary term is based upon a false ontology. Risk management implies that risk is already there, not created by the decision, but lies already inherent in the situation that the decision sets into motion. The risk that already exists in the objective situation simply needs to be “managed”. By (...) considering risk assessment as the primary term, the ethics of responsibility for risking the lives of others, the environment and future generations in the first place comes into the forefront. The issue of risk heeding is especially important as it highlights the need to pay attention to warnings of danger and to take action to redress problems before disasters occur. In this paper, the decision making that led to the choice of technology utilized and the implementation of such technology in the case of the space shuttle Challenger disaster will be used as a model to illustrate the need to take ethical factors into account when making decisions regarding the safety of technological systems and the heeding of danger warnings. While twenty-five years separates the decision to launch the Challenger and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster, the lessons of the Challenger disaster are still to be learned. (shrink)

Comparative risk assessment is playing an ever-increasing role in environmental policy priority setting, as manifested in national and numerous subnational comparative risk projects. It is widely accepted that public values, interests, and concerns should play an important role in CRA. However, the philosophical basis for public involvement in CRA has not been adequately explored, nor have comparative risk projects always made explicit their rationales for public involvement. The author examines the political, normative, and epistemic rationales for (...) public involvement and explores the case for public involvement in the making of ethical, valuation, and evidentiary judgments. The author considers key issues each rationale raises, problems eachfaces, and some of the implications of each for specific aspects of CRA. (shrink)

The primary responsibility of the US Food and Drug Administration is to protect public health by ensuring the safety of the food supply. To that end, it sometimes conducts risk assessments of novel food products, such as genetically modified food. The FDA describes its regulatory review of GM food as a purely scientific activity, untainted by any normative considerations. This paper provides evidence that the regulatory agency is not justified in making that claim. It is argued that the FDA’s (...) policy stance on GM food is shaped by neoliberal considerations. The agency’s review of a genetically engineered animal, the AquAdvantage salmon, is used as a case study to track the influence of neoliberalism on its regulatory review protocol. After that, an epistemic argument justifying public engagement in the risk assessment of new GM food is outlined. It is because risk evaluations involve normative judgments, in a democracy, layperson representatives of informal epistemic communities that could be affected by a new GM food should have the opportunity to decide the ethical, political or other normative questions that arise during the regulatory review of that entity. (shrink)

This article explores how Anglo-American financial firms since the 1980s have operated and acted in an increasingly deregulated, risky, and uncertain arena. I look at these firms and their actions with a particular focus on “temporality” and requisite “emotion-rules,” where variations in emotion-rules correspond with organizational definitions of uncertainty. Firms impose specific emotion-rules, depending on national policies, official duties, and interpretations of each risk. In finance, caveat emptor (i.e., buyer or lender distrust) is an emotion-rule set in screening policies (...) and data collection for credit risks and risks of fraud by personnel, and it gives rise to actual emotions. I argue that three time-orientations are significant in creating emotion-rules. If a past, present, or a long-term future is deployed to construct a future, that creates and frames an institution’s attempts to manage uncertainty. Looking exclusively at Anglo-American corporate finance policies and strategies (often deemed the international “one best way”), six modes of certainty constructions are presented. Each is assessed against the dispositions and emotional strategies required in highly-skilled careers, in specific organizational settings. The relative influence of individual perspectives, institutional rules and general typologies of social action is assessed and found to comprise one past view, three present views, and one future-oriented perspective towards the future. Implications are outlined for emotion-rules relevant to financial careers and office. (shrink)

What are the challenges of turning data subjects into research participants—and how can we approach this task responsibly? In this paper, we develop a methodology for studying the lived experiences of people who are subject to automated scoring systems. Unlike most media technologies, automated scoring systems are designed to track and rate specific qualities of people without their active participation. Credit scoring, risk assessments, and predictive policing all operate obliquely in the background long before they come to matter. (...) In doing so, they constitute a problem not only for those subject to these systems but also for researchers who try to study their experience. Specifically, we identify three challenges that are distinct to studying experiences of automated scoring: limited awareness, embeddedness, and ongoing inquiry. Starting from the observation that coming to terms with one's position as a data subject constitutes a form of learning in its own right, we propose a research strategy called critical companionship. Originally articulated in the context of nursing research, critical companionship invites us to accompany a data subject over time, paying critical attention to how the participant's and the researcher's inquiries complicate and constitute each other. We illustrate the strengths and limitations of this methodology with materials from a recent study we conducted about people's credit repair practices and sketch a set of sensibilities for studying contemporary scoring systems from the margins. (shrink)

In this paper, we distinguish between different sorts of assessments of algorithmic systems, describe our process of assessing such systems for ethical risk, and share some key challenges and lessons for future algorithm assessments and audits. Given the distinctive nature and function of a third-party audit, and the uncertain and shifting regulatory landscape, we suggest that second-party assessments are currently the primary mechanisms for analyzing the social impacts of systems that incorporate artificial intelligence. We then discuss two kinds of (...) as-sessments: an ethical risk assessment and a narrower, technical algo-rithmic bias assessment. We explain how the two assessments depend on each other, highlight the importance of situating the algorithm within its particular socio-technical context, and discuss a number of lessons and challenges for algorithm assessments and, potentially, for algorithm audits. The discussion builds on our team’s experience of advising and conducting ethical risk assessments for clients across dif-ferent industries in the last four years. Our main goal is to reflect on the key factors that are potentially ethically relevant in the use of algo-rithms, and draw lessons for the nascent algorithm assessment and audit industry, in the hope of helping all parties minimize the risk of harm from their use. (shrink)

Recent progress in synthetic biology has enabled the development of novel therapeutic opportunities for the treatment of human disease. In the near future, first-in-human trials will be indicated. FIH trials mark a key milestone in the translation of medical SynBio applications into clinical practice. Fostered by uncertainty of possible adverse events for trial participants, a variety of ethical concerns emerge with regards to SynBio FIH trials, including ‘risk’ minimization. These concerns are associated with any FIH trial, however, due to (...) the novelty of the approach, they become more pronounced for medical applications of emerging technologies like SynBio. To minimize potential harm for trial participants, scholars, guidelines, regulations and policy makers alike suggest using ‘risk assessment’ as evaluation tool for such trials. Conversely, in the context of emTech FIH trials, we believe it to be at least questionable to contextualize uncertainty of potential adverse events as ‘risk’ and apply traditional risk assessment methods. Hence, this issue needs to be discussed to enable alterations of the evaluation process before the translational phase of SynBio applications begins. In this paper, we will take the opportunity to start the debate and highlight how a misunderstanding of the concept of risk, and the possibilities and limitations of risk assessment, respectively, might impair decision-making by the relevant regulatory authorities and research ethics committees, and discuss possible solutions to tackle the issue. (shrink)

Post-Normal Science as a theory links epistemology and governance. It not only focuses on problem situations where facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent, but also tries to develop epistemic approaches that allow for sound scientific answers. The following article addresses major epistemological challenges within a typical ‘‘wicked-problem situation’’, i.e., risk assessment of emerging technologies. Such challenges include epistemological problems intrinsic to the task of proving the absence of risk, problems related to the (...) multi-sited production of evidence and the multitude of epistemic cultures involved, the incompatibility of the various implicit objectives and the complex actor-constellations, that shape not only the way scientific knowledge is translated into action, but also which kind of knowledge is produced and which experts are listened to. To illustrate and discuss these characteristics, the article draws on an empirical study of risk research in the fields of agri-biotechnology and telecommunication technology in Germany. It concludes that although some aspects of PNS are already part of current epistemic practices in these fields, a state of ‘‘functional post-normality’’ depends upon a meaningful co-evolution between post-normal science and post-normal governance that has not yet been achieved. (shrink)

There are widely held premises that suicide is almost exclusively the result of mental illness and there is “strong evidence for successfully detecting and managing suicidality in healthcare”. In this context, ‘zero-suicide’ policies have emerged, and suicide risk assessment tools have become a normative component of psychiatric practice. This essay discusses how suicide evolved from a moral to a medical problem and how, in an effort to reduce suicide, a paternalistic healthcare response emerged to predict those at high (...) risk. The evidence for the premises is critiqued and shown to be problematic; and it is found that strong paternalistic interventions are being used more often than acknowledged. Using a Principles approach, the ethics of overriding autonomy in suicide prevention is considered. Ethical concerns are identified with the current approach which are potentially amplified by the use of these risk assessments. Furthermore, it is identified that the widespread use of risk assessments in health settings is equivalent to screening without regard to the ethical principles of screening. The essay concludes that this is unethical; that we should abandon the use of standardized suicide risk assessments and ‘zero-suicide’ policy; and that this may improve outcomes. (shrink)

SummaryI contend on both theoretical and historical grounds that quantitative risk assessment is relevant for policy determination only as a cost estimate. In particular, it provides a method for estimating the costs of a hypothetical insurance policy against the potential liabilities associated with a given course of action. It is not relevant to the question of rational choice under risk.RésuméJe montre, en partant d'arguments aussi bien théoriques qu'historiques, que le calcul quanti‐tatif des risques n'aide à la détermination (...) d'une politique à suivre qu'en tant qu'estimation des coûts. En particulier, il fournit une méthode pour estimer les primes d'une police hypothétique d'assurance contre les responsabilites potentielles associées à une suite donnée d'actions. 11 ne permet pas un choix rationnel dans des situations comportant des risques.ZusammenfassungIch argumentiere, sowohl aus theoretischen als auch aus historischen Gründen, dass eine quantitative Risikoberechnung für die Wahl einer Handlungsweise nur als Kostenschätzung relevant ist. Namentlich bietet sie eine Methode, um die Prämie einer Versicherungspolice gegen pot‐entielle Haftbarkeit, welche mit den Vorgängen eines Aktionsverlaufs verbunden ist, zu bestim‐men. Bei der Frage einer rationalen Wahl in einer Risikosituation ist sie nicht relevant. (shrink)

Can we measure and predict character with predictive analytics so a business can better assess, ideally objectively, whether to lend money or extend credit to that person, beyond current objective measures of credit scores and standard financial metrics like solvency and debt ratios? We and the analysts probably do not know enough about character to try to measure it, though it might be more useful to measure and predict a person’s temperance and prudence as virtues, or self-control as (...) psychology, or sense of obligation, particularly a moral commitment or sense of duty to honor a contract and re-pay a loan. The pervasive data surveillance of people that goes with “big data” and predictive analytics is not only an invasion of privacy in general, but an impairment of the aspect of privacy called autonomy that will constrict and alter a person’s choices and development of self. (shrink)

With the increase in depth of coal mining, the hydrogeological complexity largely increases and water inrush accidents happen more frequently. For the safety of coal mining, horizontal directional drilling and grouting techniques have been implemented to detect and plug the fractures and conduits that deliver high-pressure groundwater to coal mine. Taking the grouting engineering performed at Xingdong coal mine at 980 m below sea level as an example, we collected the data of grouting quantity, the loss of drilling fluid, gamma (...) value, water temperature, average water absorption, distance between grouting loss points, water pressure on coal seam floor, and aquifuge thickness at 90 boreholes in the mine to conduct grey relational analysis, first. The analysis showed that the grouting quantity was highly correlated with all other factors. Subsequently, grey system evaluation was used to evaluate the risk of water inrush from the coal seam floor. The results of risk analysis illustrated that three water inrushes from Ordovician limestone occurred in mining face 2127, 2125, and 2222 in the study area were all located in the area with a risk score higher than 65. Through grouting, the identified cracks were effectively blocked and waterproof layers beneath the coal seam floors were constructed to reduce the threat of water inrush. By comparing the risk assessment results with three water inrush cases before grouting operation, we found that water inrush areas were consistent with the area of higher risk. (shrink)

College student entrepreneurship is a complex and dynamic process, in which the potential risks faced by entrepreneurial enterprises are interactive and diverse. The changes in risk assessment for college student entrepreneurship are also dynamic and nonlinear and are affected by many factors, which make the risk assessment process for college student entrepreneurship quite complicated. Big data analysis technology is a new product formed under the background of cloud computing and Internet technology, which has the characteristics of (...) large data scale, multiple data types, and strong data value and provides more technical support for the researches on the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing previous research results, this article expounded the research status and significance of the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship, elaborated the development background, current status, and future challenges of big data analysis technology, introduced the basic principles of support vector machine and hierarchical analytic process, constructed a risk assessment model for college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis, analyzed the risk factors and assessment indicators of the entrepreneurial model, proposed a risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis, performed the discrimination coefficient calculation and comprehensive correlation optimization, and finally conducted a case experiment and its result analysis. The study results show that the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis can effectively realize the comprehensive management of risk factors, make full use of the value of assessment parameter data, and significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of the risk assessment for college student entrepreneurship, providing more technical support for the researches on the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship. The study results of this article provide a reference for further researches on the risk assessment algorithm of college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis. (shrink)

With the development of economic globalization and the policy guidance of International Financial Reporting Standards, the overseas investment of Chinese enterprises has been greatly affected. To study the overseas investment risks of Chinese enterprises, this paper applies a risk analysis model to summarize and analyze the results of overseas investment of Haier from 2008 to 2020. This paper defines the risk analysis model as risk identification, risk assessment, and risk response, and studies overseas investment (...) risks including political, economic, cultural, legal, cost, epidemic, and business risks. The existence of various risks is identified in the company’s overseas investment projects;. The overseas investment risks of Haier are evaluated, through a comprehensive evaluation method combining qualitative and quantitative, financial data, and market response;. In view of the deficiencies of the existing risk prevention measures in the overseas investment of enterprises, some reasonable suggestions are purposed. The innovation of this paper are: This paper combines IFRS 9, IFRS 15, and IFRS 16, selects theories, and combines cases to evaluate the risks of overseas investment that are difficult to quantify, and analyzes the risks of overseas investment by Z-value models and market effects. This research method has pertinence and applicability to enterprises investing overseas. (shrink)

Algorithmic risk assessment tools, such as COMPAS, are increasingly used in criminal justice systems to predict the risk of defendants to reoffend in the future. This paper argues that these tools may not only predict recidivism, but may themselves causally induce recidivism through self-fulfilling predictions. We argue that such “performative” effects can yield severe harms both to individuals and to society at large, which raise epistemic-ethical responsibilities on the part of developers and users of risk (...) class='Hi'>assessment tools. To meet these responsibilities, we present a novel desideratum on algorithmic tools, called explainability-in-context, which requires clarifying how these tools causally interact with the social, technological, and institutional environments they are embedded in. Risk assessment practices are thus subject to high epistemic standards, which haven't been sufficiently appreciated to date. Explainability-in-context, we contend, is a crucial goal to pursue in addressing the ethical challenges surrounding risk assessment tools. (shrink)

Risk assessment is an evidence-based analytical framework used to evaluate research findings related to environmental and public health decision-making. Different routines have been adopted for assessing the potential risks posed by substances and products to human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a hazard-driven approach, based on a monocausal toxicological perspective. Questions have been raised about the applicability of the general chemical risk assessment approach in the specific case of nanomaterials. Most scientists and stakeholders assume (...) that the current standard methods are in principle suitable, but point out that experimental aspects and practical guidelines need specific adaptations. Beyond this laboratory level, risk assessment of nanomaterials also faces a number of substantive and procedural limitations, which are intrinsically attributed to the general orthodoxy of the risk assessment concept. Moreover, the developed formalism used to organize scientific knowledge is closely interlinked with the underlying governance design and the mode of interaction between the two spheres of ‘science’ and ‘decisions’. This contribution will provide a closer look at the evolution of different institutional settings for risk assessment in the context of decision-making. Improved risk governance frameworks with different narratives, process designs and procedural elements will be compared. The question of a general principle of enhanced organization of risk assessment will be discussed taking account of the barriers of substantive and procedural limitations in the special case of nanomaterials. (shrink)

In this paper we explore whether or not the use of risk assessment tools in criminal sentencing can be made compatible with a retributivist justification of punishment. While there has been considerable discussion of the accuracy and fairness of these tools, such discussion assumes that one’s recidivism risk is relevant to the severity of punishment that one should receive. But this assumption only holds on certain accounts of punishment, and seems to conflict with retributivist justifications of punishment. (...) Drawing on the broader desert literature, we explain the source of this conflict, and suggest that a retributivist approach on which the severity of punishment partly depends on one’s character in addition to their acts offers some hope of reconciling retributivism with the use of risk assessment tools in considerations of sentencing reduction in particular. Ultimately, however, even this limited attempt at reconciliation fails, so long as risk assessment tools fail to distinguish between risk that one is responsible for, and risk that one is not responsible for. (shrink)

Call for Written evidence - Risk Assessment and Risk Planning.

Risks and burdens in the study participation, as well as an adequate risk-benefit balance, are key concepts for the evaluation of clinical studies by research ethics committees. An adequate assessment and continuous monitoring to ensure compliance of risks and burdens in clinical trials have long been described as a central task in research ethics. However, there is currently no uniform and solid theoretical approach to risk assessment by RECs. Regulatory standards of research ethics such as the (...) Declaration of Helsinki provide only minimal guidance on how risk decisions are considered. Due to discrepancies in the existing literature and guidance documents, adequate risk assessment by RECs remains to be elusive. In this article, we address current definitions of risk and present our own concept of aggregate risk definition. Moreover, we highlight the concept of benefit, the standard of reasonableness with respect to ethics literature and different approaches of risk-benefit assessment. In order to present a comprehensive theoretical approach of risk assessment by RECs, further understanding of the definitions of risk may improve adequate decision-making tasks by RECs. To improve the process of risk assessment by RECs, a dynamic framework will be illustrated, showing step-by-step risk assessment functions. This approach may be a promising tool to ensure adequacy in risk assessment by RECs. (shrink)

The "prevailing opinion" among decision theorists, according to John Harsanyi, is to use the Bayesian rule, even in situations of uncertainty. I want to argue that the prevailing opinion is wrong, at least in the case of societal risks under uncertainty. Admittedly Bayesian rules are better in many cases of individual risk or certainty. (Both Bayesian and maximin strategies are sometimes needed.) Although I shall not take the time to defend all these points in detail, I shall argue (1) (...) that there are compelling reasons for rejecting Harsanyi's defense of the Bayesian strategy under uncertainty; (2) that it is more rational, in specific types of situations, to prefer the maximin strategy; and (3) that calibrating expert opinions is superior to using the equiprobability assumption or subjective probabilities. (shrink)

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced recently that food products derived from some animal clones and their offspring are safe for human consumption. In response to criticism that it had failed to engage with ethical, social, and economic concerns raised by livestock cloning, the FDA argued that addressing normative issues prior to issuing a final ruling on animal cloning is not part of its mission. In this article, the authors reject the FDA's claim that its mission to protect (...) and advance public health can be accomplished without considering ethical issues or without making value judgments. The authors offer two arguments in support of their position. First, the agency's mission statement presupposes significant normative commitments and judgments. Second, the FDA's risk assessment of food products from cloned animals and their offspring is itself clearly shaped by a variety of normative commitments. (shrink)

In 2004 prenatal risk assessment was implemented as a routine offer to all pregnant women in Denmark. It was argued that primarily the new programme would give all pregnant women an informed choice about whether to undergo prenatal testing. On the basis of ethnographic fieldwork in an ultrasound clinic in Denmark and interviews with pregnant women and their partners, we call into question the assumption underlying the new guidelines that more choice and more objective information is a source (...) of empowerment and control. We focus on one couple's experience of PRA. This case makes it evident how supposed choices in the context of PRA may not be experienced as such. Rather, they are experienced as complicated processes of meaning-making in the relational space between the clinical setting, professional authority and the social life of the couples. PRA users are reluctant to make choices and abandon health professionals as authoritative experts in the face of complex risk knowledge. When assumptions about autonomy and self-determination are inscribed into the social practice of PRA, authority is transferred to the couple undergoing PRA and a new configuration of responsibility evolves between the couple and their relationship to the foetus. It is argued that al-though the new programme of prenatal testing in Denmark presents itself in opposition to quasi-eugenic and paternalistic forms of governing couples' decisions it represents another form of government that works through the notion of choice. An ethics of a shared responsibility of PRA and its outcome would be more in agreement with how decisions are actually made. (shrink)

Exposure of the banking system to the Global Financial Crisis attracted attention to the study of riskiness and spillover. This paper studies the pattern of systemic risk and size effect in the Indian banking sector. Based on market capitalization, three public sector banks and three from the private sector were taken. Data are taken from the year 2007 to 2020. The analysis is done through quantile- CoVaR and TENET measure. State variables like Indian market volatility and global risk (...) measures negatively influence the Indian banks’ returns. Liquidity risk is a crucial aspect of private banks. Public banks experience public confidence even in the distress period. Large banks like HDFC and SBI bank offer the highest degree of systemic risk contribution. The role of private banks in transmitting systemic risk has been intensifying since 2015. Small-sized banks like PNB and BOB have become significant receivers and transmitters of risk. (shrink)

The process of risk assessment of biotechnologies, such as genetically modified organisms (GMOs), has normative dimensions. However, the US’ Food and Drug Administration (FDA) seems committed to the idea that such evaluations are objective. This essay makes the case that the agency’s regulatory approach should be changed such that the public is involved in deciding any ethical or social questions that might arise during risk assessment of GMOs. It is argued that, in the US, neither aggregative (...) nor deliberative (representative) democracy ought to be used to make such determinations. Instead, participatory (deliberative) democracy should be the means by which members of the polity decide which normative concerns ought to underlie FDA’s assessment of GMOs. This paper uses a hypothetical case involving a new GM seed to make that argument. (shrink)

The basic question for risk assessment is not "What are the risks?" but "How safe is safe enough?" Its ambitious goal is to make risk management a scientific enterprise. In order to succeed, not only must risks be quantified but also the many kinds of costs and benefits associated with technology and its control must be quantified and we must find a common metric for comparing these different factors. The risks of risk assessment include the (...) possibility of distorting values in the quest for general comparability and also the problem of responding rationally to different kinds of uncertainty. The problems discussed include comparing novel events to statistically frequent events, comparing different distributions of risk, and quantifying the value of saving human lives. (shrink)

The existing risk assessment and control methods of enterprise risk financing have a large error in mobile data, which leads to inaccurate risk assessment results and low-risk optimization control efficiency. In order to improve the accuracy of risk financing risk assessment for small and medium-sized enterprises and risk control optimization efficiency, this article proposes risk assessment and risk control algorithms for SMEs in the era of big data. (...) Through verifying the information of the loan application and supplementing the data during the loan period, invoke the existing enterprise financing risk database, establish the SME venture financing risk assessment model; build the risk evaluation index system according to the characteristics of the enterprise production organization, process characteristics, and the development of the socioeconomic and technical environment; apply the GA–PSO algorithm to the design of the SME risk financing risk control scheme, and complete the SME risk financing risk assessment and risk control. The experimental results show that the risk optimization control efficiency of the control algorithm reaches more than 70%, and the risk assessment accuracy of SMEs reaches over 95%, and the runtime less than 80 ms, with good convergence performance of risk assessment and control, strong risk optimization control ability, and accurate evaluation effect. (shrink)

Epistemic uncertainties are included in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as second-order probabilities that represent the degrees of belief of the scientists that a model is correct. In this article, I propose an alternative approach that incorporates the scientist’s confidence in a probability set for a given quantity. First, I give some arguments against the use of precise probabilities to estimate scientific uncertainty in risk analysis. I then extend the “confidence approach” developed by Brian Hill and Richard Bradley (...) to PRA. Finally, I claim that this approach represents model uncertainty better than the standard (Bayesian) model does. (shrink)