In multicausal abductive tasks a person must explain some findings by assembling a composite hypothesis that consists of one or more elementary hypotheses. If there are n elementary hypotheses, there can be up to 2n composite hypotheses. To constrain the search for hypotheses to explain a new observation, people sometimes use their current explanation—the previous evidence and their present composite hypothesis of that evidence; however, it is unclear when and how the current explanation is used. In addition, although a person's (...) current explanation can narrow the search for a hypothesis, it can also blind the problem solver to alternative, possibly better, explanations. This paper describes a model of multicausal abductive reasoning that makes two predictions regarding the use of the current explanation. The first prediction is that the current explanation is not used to explain new evidence if there is a simple (i.e., nondisjunctive, concrete) hypothesis to account for that evidence. The second prediction is that the current explanation is used when attempting to discriminate among several alternative hypotheses for new evidence. These hypotheses were tested in three experiments. The results are consistent with the second prediction: the current explanation is used when discriminating among alternative hypotheses. However, the first prediction—that the current explanation is not used when a simple hypothesis can account for new data—received only limited support. Participants used the current explanation to constrain their interpretation of new data in 46.5% of all trials. This suggests that context‐independent strategies compete with context‐dependent ones—an interpretation that is consistent with recent work on strategy selection during problem solving. (shrink)

One task of religion is delivering human beings from evil within and between themselves. Defining good as well-being or functioning well, evil as impaired functioning, and doing evil as impairing the functioning of others, this essay explores how religions in consort with other social institutions might understand and respond to evil in light of contemporary scientific knowledge. To understand evil I use a multicausal approach that includes both biological and sociocultural environmental causes. I illustrate the use of this approach by (...) analyzing how we might understand and respond to human rage and violence. (shrink)

The Adequate Cause Theory: On the relation of Philosophical and Legal Concepts of Causality. The paper discusses the first explicit and logically convincing introduction of a concept of probabilistic causality into legal theories of causation in Germany by Johannes von Kries (1888). First, it is shown how this step was prepared by the failure of the philosophical analysis of causation which took its leading examples from physics to overcome the difficulties which presented themselves in cases of "irreducible multicausality". Secondly, (...) I give the basic ideas of Kries's connection of causal theory and probability theory by presenting his concept of "scope" ("Spielraum"). Finally, I turn to some concepts which are still controversively discussed in legal contexts and which exhibit the logical structure analysed by Kries. It is shown that a certain indefiniteness of the relevant distinctions, which cannot be overcome, does not paralyse their being useful. (shrink)

This paper focuses on the causation of diseases, particularly on the idea of a “genetic cause” taking Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) as an example. We (1) provide some historical information and a synopsis of the current knowledge on the etiology and pathogenesis of AD, (2) analyse some conceptual problems related to the notion of “genetic disease” (3) elaborate on the alleged (genetic) cause of AD, and (4) place the discussion on the cause of AD in a broader philosophical context, paying attention (...) to a constructivist perspective, the notions of causal connection and causal selection, and to some practical and normative consequences of our analysis. We conclude (a) that AD is not a specific disease entity with one specific cause, (b) that the idea of a single (sufficient) cause can still function as a heuristic tool in AD research and practice, and (c) that a “belief” in causation can go together with the notions of multicausality and probability. (shrink)

The real-life complexity of moral motivation can be examined and explained by reintegrating time and development into moral inquiry. This article is one of the possible integrative steps in this direction. A dynamic developmental conception of moral motivation can be a useful bridge toward such integration. A comprehensive view of moral motivation is presented. Moral motivation is reconceptualized as a developmental process of self-organization and self-regulation out of which moral judgment and action emerge through the interplay of dynamically intertwined cognitive (...) and emotional components. Moral identity is proposed to emerge from long-term self-organization of moral motivation. In turn, as a higher-order construct, moral identity has a top-down influence on real-time self-organization. The article includes an account of short-term changes in moral motivation, and an account that connects real-time moral functioning with long-term changes. Moral motivation is qualified as a dynamic developmental process on the basis of self-organization, multicausality, nonlinearity, interconnectedness of time scales and substantial intrapersonal variability through motivational pluralism. (shrink)

Although clinicians and researchers working in the field of autism are generally not concerned with philosophical categories of kinds, a model for understanding the nature of autism is important for guiding research and clinical practice. Contemporary research in the field of autism is guided by the depiction of autism as a scientific object that can be identified with systematic neuroscientific investigation. This image of autism is compatible with a permissive account of natural kinds: the mechanistic property cluster (MPC) account of (...) natural kinds, recently proposed as the model for understanding psychiatric disorders. Despite the heterogeneity, multicausality and fuzzy boundaries that complicate autism research, a permissive account of natural kinds (MPC kinds) provides prescriptive guidance for the investigation of objective causal mechanisms that should inform nosologists in their attempt to carve autism’s boundaries at its natural joints. However, this essay will argue that a mechanistic model of autism is limited since it disregards the way in which autism relates to ideas about what kind of behavior is abnormal. As historical studies and definitions of autism show, normative issues concerning disability, impairment and societal needs have been and still are inextricably linked to how we recognize and understand autism. The current search for autism’s unity in neurobiological mechanisms ignores the values, social norms and various perspectives on mental pathology that play a significant role in 'the thing called autism’. Autism research needs to engage with these issues in order to achieve more success in the effort to become clinically valuable. (shrink)

Aristotle’s influence on D’Arcy Thompson was praised by Thompson himself and has been recognized by others in various respects, including the aesthetic and normative dimensions of biology, and the multicausal explanation of living forms. This article focuses on the relatedness of organic forms, one of the core problems addressed by both Aristotle’s History of Animals (HA), and the renowned chapter of Thompson’s On Growth and Form (G&F), “On the Theory of Transformations, or the Comparison of Related Forms.” We contend that, (...) far from being an incidental inspiration stemming from Thompson’s classicist background, his translation of HA played a pivotal role in developing his theory of transformations. Furthermore, we argue that Thompson’s interpretation of the Aristotelian method of comparison challenges the prevailing view of Aristotle as the founder of “typological essentialism,” and is a key episode in the revision of this narrative. Thompson understood that the method Aristotle used in HA to compare animal forms is better comprehended as a “method of transformations,” leading to a morphological arrangement of animal diversity, as opposed to a taxonomical classification. Finally, we examine how this approach to the relatedness of forms lay the foundation for a causal understanding of parts and their interconnections. Although Aristotle and Thompson emphasized distinct types of causes, we contend that they both differ in a fundamental sense from the one introduced by Darwin’s theory of natural selection, which was formulated as a solution to the species problem rather than the form problem. We conclude that Thompson’s interpretation of Aristotle’s approach to form comparison has not only impacted contemporary scholarship on Aristotle’s biology, but revitalized a perspective that has regained significance due to the resurgence of the problem of form in evo-devo. (shrink)

Background In 2021, Spain became the first Southern European country to grant and provide the right to euthanasia and medically assisted suicide. According to the law, the State has the obligation to ensure its access through the health services, which means that healthcare professionals’ participation is crucial. Nevertheless, its implementation has been uneven. Our research focuses on understanding possible ethical conflicts that shape different positions towards the practice of Medical Assistance in Dying, on identifying which core ideas may be underlying (...) them, and on suggesting possible reasons for this disparity. The knowledge acquired contributes to understanding its complexity, shedding light into ambivalent profiles and creating strategies to increase their participation. Methods We conducted an exploratory qualitative research study by means of semi-structured interviews (1 h) with 25 physicians and nurses from primary care (12), hospital care (7), and palliative care (6), 17 women and 8 men, recruited from Madrid, Catalonia, and Andalusia between March and May 2023. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded in Atlas.ti software by means of thematic and interpretative methods to develop a conceptual model. Results We identified four approaches to MAiD: Full Support (FS), Conditioned Support (CS), Conditioned Rejection (CR), and Full Rejection (FR). Full Support and Full Rejection fitted the traditional for and against positions on MAiD. Nevertheless, there was a gray area in between represented by conditioned profiles, whose participation cannot be predicted beforehand. The profiles were differentiated considering their different interpretations of four core ideas: end-of-life care, religion, professional duty/deontology, and patient autonomy. These ideas can intersect, which means that participants' positions are multicausal and complex. Divergences between profiles can be explained by different sources of moral authority used in their moral reasoning and their individualistic or relational approach to autonomy. Conclusions There is ultimately no agreement but rather a coexistence of plural moral perspectives regarding MAiD among healthcare professionals. Comprehending which cases are especially difficult to evaluate or which aspects of the law are not easy to interpret will help in developing new strategies, clarifying the legal framework, or guiding moral reasoning and education with the aim of reducing unpredictable non-participations in MAID. (shrink)

O uso de drogas é complexo e multicausal com impactos para as pessoas, famílias e sociedade. Este estudo investigou legislações, políticas públicas e estratégias, que possam diminuir vulnerabilidades e contribuir para os ODS. Foi realizado levantamento documental, em legislações e documentos, para análise da realidade social, a partir das experiências profissionais, e ainda levantamento bibliográfico, na BVS e LILACS, de 2016 a 2018. Observou-se que o Estado se mantém disciplinador e entre as políticas mais relevantes estão a Redução de Danos, (...) os CAPS e o Consultório de Rua, marcadas pelo empirismo, obstáculos e desafios em relação à universalidade e equidade. Estratégias intersetoriais, podem ser utilizadas para se obter melhores condições de saúde e bem-estar, saneamento e água, educação, trabalho. A promoção da saúde corrobora na redução das vulnerabilidades e equidade, com maior sensibilização e qualificação dos profissionais das redes de atenção social, para acolher a população com competência e dignidade. (shrink)

The search for causes of perinatal brain damage needs a solid theoretical foundation. Current theory apparently does not offer a unanimously accepted view of what constitutes a cause, and how it can be identified. We discuss nine potential theoretical misconceptions: (1) too narrow a view of what is a cause (causal production vs. facilitation), (2) extrapolating from possibility to fact (potential vs. factual causation), (3) if X, then invariably Y (determinism vs. probabilism), (4) co-occurrence in individuals vs. association in populations, (...) (5) one cause is all that is needed (single cause attribution vs. multicausal constellations), (6) drawing causal inferences from very small numbers of observations (the tendency to generalize), (7) unstated causal inferences, (8) ignoring heterogeneity, and (9) failing to consider alternative explanations for what is observed. We hope that our critical discussion will contribute to fruitful research and help reduce the burden of perinatal brain damage. (shrink)

Epidemiological studies of chronic diseases began around the mid-20th century. Contrary to the infectious disease epidemiology which had prevailed at the beginning of the 20th century and which had focused on single agents causing individual diseases, the chronic disease epidemiology which emerged at the end of Word War II was a much more complex enterprise that investigated a multiplicity of risk factors for each disease. Involved in the development of chronic disease epidemi-ology were therefore fundamental discussions on the notion of (...) causality, especially the question when causal inferences could be justified. In this paper, I shall analyze the implicit normativity of these de-bates. First, I shall give a brief overview of the historical background on which chronic disease epi-demiology emerged and describe how the pioneer studies on smoking and lung cancer became icon of the major challenge that the emerging chronic disease epidemiology was facing: the impossibility of proving that statistical associations reflected causal relations. Next, I shall describe how the develop-ment from the monocausal enterprise of infectious disease epidemiology to the multicausal enterprise of chronic disease epidemiology gave rise to intense discussions of the possible criteria by which to establish causal relationships between a given factor and a particular disease. I shall show how the necessary and sufficient conditions expressed in the so-called Henle-Koch criteria that had proved useful for the 19th century investigations of infectious diseases remained an ideal, although clearly an unobtainable one. Thus, I shall show how 20th century chronic disease epidemiologists on the one hand were searching for a new set of general principles which would provide a logical framework for their investigations, but on the other hand admitted that they would have to accept something more "pragmatic". I shall analyze the various positions in this debate, arguing that the implacability of the debate was due to unrecognized normative issues. I shall argue that many insisted on a distinction between science and application that was untenable, but that due to this distinction the values in-volved in deciding whether or not to act on the basis of a hypothesis were rarely explicitly discussed and the decision therefore continued to appear as a matter of taste rather than the result of a cogent normative analysis. (shrink)

A análise epistemológica das práticas das ciências da saúde vem se tornando mais presente no debate filosófico nas últimas décadas, e se torna premente diante do contexto dramático da pandemia em que atualmente vivemos. Para contribuir com a essa análise, o presente artigo apresenta uma introdução às temáticas da filosofia da medicina e da filosofia da epidemiologia, especialmente o exame do papel da causalidade, conceito fundamental para a compreensão da relação entre saúde e doença. A noção de causa INUS, formulada (...) pelo filósofo J. L. Mackie e adaptada para a epidemiologia por Kenneth Rothman, permite retratar com precisão as interações multicausais que cooperam para a alteração de um estado de saúde. Contudo, o modelo visual de Rothman não contempla conceitos importantes da epidemiologia, imprecisão que busco sanar com uma proposta de representação temporal do conjunto multicausal que, dentre outras coisas, facilita o planejamento de intervenções pontuais que visem a impedir a instalação de uma doença. A delimitação do conjunto causal também é posta em questão, uma vez que a perspectiva multicausal não delimita intrinsecamente qualquer critério acerca de onde finalizar a seleção de fatores causais. Aponto para a manipulabilidade como a abordagem própria das ciências da saúde para a seleção dos fatores nos quais intervir, e que o reconhecimento dessa perspectiva é importante para a própria compreensão filosófica da causalidade. (shrink)

In times of crisis, one of the areas heavily affected has been food, as a direct consequence of the damage caused to family farming and therefore to Food and Nutrition Security (SAN). Climate change, in turn, causes widespread crises, which, due to their impact on humanity, and above all, on SAN, provide complex humanitarian crises, worsening hunger. The military conflict imposes difficulties in access to food and production. This study aimed to critically describe the panorama of climate change and armed (...) conflicts in Africa, relating them to the pandemic of COVID-19 as a factor of aggravating the situation of food insecurity in African countries. A literature review study was carried out in various databases, journals and portals for this purpose, with emphasis on Google Scholar, CAPES and governmental portals. The results point to climate change, as being multicausal, and constitute a risk factor for agriculture and SAN, in African countries, characterized by the destruction of crops and the reduction of food availability. Armed conflicts makes difficult to produce and distribute food, especially for people who’s affected. (shrink)

Una concepción algebraica de la realidad social es una idea que escandalizaría a muchos de mis colegas. ¿Qué tiene que ver el álgebra con una ideología política? ¿Qué dice una fórmula de la historia, disciplina multicausal y reacia a las reducciones lineales? ¿Qué podría decir, siquiera, de la antropología y su proceder? Nótese que ni siquiera me molesto en incluir a la filosofía. Defender una visión formal del quehacer filosófico es una misión aún más ingrata. La tarea en la que (...) se embarca el profesor Fonseca Martínez en su libro Belief and Sociey: Making Ranking Theory Useful for the Social World es, en ese preciso sentido, realmente una missio; funge como enviado de una tradición en gran medida foránea para la ciencia social – y mejor sería decir ciencias sociales – en América Latina. (shrink)

Since the mid-20th century, the study of Self-Regulated Learning has aimed to identify the distinctive characteristics that enable individuals to acquire new knowledge and skills under their control. The theory of Internal Self-Regulation vs. External-Regulation in Learning has postulated that a large number of self-regulatory variables are mediated by regulated/non-regulated or dysregulated features of the context. After signing their informed consent, a total of 616 university students completed validated instruments of SRL vs. ERL, behavioral regulation, regulatory teaching, and metacognitive study (...) control strategies. Using an ex-post facto design and correlation, regression, structural equation model and mediation analyses, the present research aimed to establish multicausal predictive relationships among the analyzed variables. Results indicated positive predictive effects between the external regulation variables on the self-regulation variables in learning [regulation /non-regulation /dysregulation ]; as well as positive predictive effects between SRL on SRB, RT and metacognitive SRS. Additionally, external regulation not only predicted but mediated numerous relations among the variables studied. Other findings and important considerations for future research in the field of self-regulation are discussed. (shrink)

The irreversibility in time, the multicausality on lines, and the uncertainty of feedbacks make economic systems and the predictions of economic chaotic time series possess the characteristics of high dimensionalities, multiconstraints, and complex nonlinearities. Based on genetic algorithm and fuzzy rules, the chaotic genetics combined with fuzzy decision-making can use simple, fast, and flexible means to complete the goals of automation and intelligence that are difficult to traditional predicting algorithms. Moreover, the new combined method’s ergodicity can perform nonrepetitive searches (...) in a global scope, hence improving the algorithm’s accuracy and efficiency. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing previous research works, this paper expounded the research status and significance of the prediction of economic chaotic time series, elaborated the development background, current status, and future challenges of the combined algorithm of chaotic genetics with fuzzy decision, introduced the basic principles of chaotic genetic algorithm and fuzzy decision algorithm, constructed a prediction model for economic chaotic time series, performed parameter synchronization optimization and moderate function construction, analyzed the prediction processes of economic chaotic time series, conducted phase space reconstruction and correlation dimension calculation, and finally carried out a simulation experiment with its result analysis. The study results show that the algorithm of chaotic genetics combined with fuzzy decision-making can dynamically adjust chaotic mutation operators and summarize fussy expert experiences. The phase space of its reconstructed chaotic attractor has high-precision predictability and can find orderly processes from changeable economic results, which in turn can be used to analyze and predict the complex economic chaotic time series. The study results of this paper provide a reference for further research on predictive analysis of economic chaotic time series based on chaotic genetics combined with fuzzy decision algorithm. (shrink)

Returning to sport after the sports injury is a difficult decision because it’s multicausal and the fact that a rash decision can result in numerous negative consequences. Given the importance of psychological variables for the correct rehabilitation of the injured athlete and his or her optimal return to sports practice, there seems to be little information on this subject. In this sense, the objective is to determine the relationship between the subjective psychological disposition of the athlete in the process of (...) Return to Play with the type of mood profile and his mental health. This is based on the fact that each athlete evaluates his or her recovery differently and has different levels of anxiety, depression, and stress. For this purpose, four athletes participated in the study. Two males and two females from the sports of indoor soccer and soccer, who had just returned to sports after a moderate or severe injury. The average age was 24.25 years. Various measurements were taken after practices and after matches, to assess mood, psychological readiness, anxiety, stress, and depression. The results confirm Morgan’s iceberg profile and the influence that subjective psychological perceptions and assessed emotional states have on athletes’ incorporation into their sports practice with a guarantee of success. (shrink)

Se realizó una revisión bibliográfica con el objetivo de profundizar los conocimientos sobre el cólera y su historia. Se tratan aspectos relacionados con la etiología de la enfermedad, patogenia, cuadro clínico, tratamiento, epidemiología y prevención. El cólera es una enfermedad de origen multicausal donde intervienen factores biológicos, ambientales, sociales, políticos y culturales, la cual está resurgiendo como un problema sanitario de primera magnitud en muchos países. Para su erradicación es necesario desarrollar una fuerte promoción de salud en el seno de (...) la sociedad, garantizar atención rápida a enfermos y contactos e impedir la desorganización de la estructura social y económica en pro de la calidad de vida del ser humano. A bibliographical revision with the objective of deepening in the knowledge on cholera and its history was carried out. Some aspects related with its aetiology, pathology, clinical picture, treatment, epidemiology and prevention are considered. Cholera is an illness of multicausal origin where biological, environmental, social, political and cultural factors intervene. This disease is resurging as a sanitary problem of first magnitude in many countries. It is necessary to develop a strong promotion of health in the society to eradicate it, to guarantee a quick attention to sick and contacts and to impede the disorganization of the social and economic structure in favour of the quality of the human being life. (shrink)

Change is the fundamental idea of evolution. Explaining the extraordinary biological change we see written in the history of genomes and fossil beds is the primary occupation of the evolutionary biologist. Yet it is a surprising fact that for the majority of evolutionary research, we have rarely studied how evolution typically unfolds in nature, in changing ecological environments, over space and time. While ecology played a major role in the eventual acceptance of the population genetic viewpoint of evolution in the (...) synthetic era (circa 1918-1956), it held a lesser role in the development of evolutionary theory until the 1980s, when we began to systematically study the evolutionary dynamics of natural populations in space and time. As a result, early evolutionary theory was initially constructed in an abstract vacuum that was unrepresentative of evolution in nature. The subtle synthesis between ecology with evolutionary biology (eco-evo synthesis) over the past 40 years has progressed our knowledge of natural selection dynamics as they are found in nature, thus revealing how natural selection varies in strength, direction, form, and, more surprisingly, level of biological organization. Natural selection can no longer be reduced to lower levels of biological organization (i.e., individuals, selfish genes) over shorter timescales but should be expanded to include adaptation at higher levels and over longer timescales. Long-term and/or emergent evolutionary phenomena, such as multilevel selection or evolvability, have thus become tenable concepts within an evolutionary biology that embraces ecology and spatiotemporal change. Evolutionary biology is currently suspended at an intermediate stage of scientific progress that calls for the organization of all the recent knowledge revealed by the eco-evo synthesis into a coherent and unified theoretical framework. This is where philosophers of biology can be of particular use, acting as a bridge between the subdisciplines of biology and inventing new theoretical strategies to organize and accommodate the recent knowledge. Philosophers have recommended transitioning away from outdated philosophies that were originally derived from physics within the philosophical zeitgeist of logical positivism (i.e., monism, reductionism, and monocausation) and toward a distinct philosophy of biology that can capture the natural complexity of multifaceted biological systems within diverse ecosystems—one that embraces the emerging philosophies of pluralism, emergence, and multicausality. Therefore, I see recent advances in ecology, evolutionary biology, and the philosophy of biology as laying the groundwork for another major biological synthesis, what I refer to as the Second Synthesis because, in many respects, it is analogous to the aims and outcomes of the first major biological synthesis (but is notably distinct from the inorganic and contrived progressive movement known as the extended evolutionary synthesis). With the general development of a distinctive philosophy of science, biology has rightfully emerged as an autonomous science. Thus, while the first synthesis legitimized biology, the Second Synthesis autonomized biology and afforded biology its own philosophy, allowing biology to finally realize its full scientific potential. (shrink)

This paper analyzes the complex historical and regional factors that contribute to the escalation of destruction from 2003 on in Darfur. Darfur is not an isolated case that suddenly erupted in violence. It is the most recent case in a long history of repeated violations by the Sudanese state against its citizens. From the use of proxy militias (the Janjaweed) to signing peace agreements that fragment and weaken the opposition, destruction in Darfur continues government strategies of divide and rule. At (...) the same time, complex regional dynamics especially between Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic add to violence and instability within states and across borders. The paper emphasizes the speed with which during 2003–2005 over 2.4 million were uprooted from their homes and the ongoing vulnerability of internally displaced persons to attacks, disease and malnutrition. This restructuring of the population in Darfur is part of a strategy to control the populace and redistribute land and other resources. The multicausal origin of the conflict and its increasing complexity points to the difficulty of providing security for the people in Darfur and resolving the conflict. (shrink)

Health policy is increasingly confronted with the demand for financing genetic testing on inherited susceptibility to disease. Tests on polymorphism/snp associated with multicausal and chronic conditions are already offered in private commercial institutions or in academic hospitals. The increasing pressure on public health services to offer SNP testing leads to first methodological approaches for a generally valid regulatory framework applicable for inclusion or refusal of genetic tests into the public health services. Systematic search in Medline, Embase and the Web for (...) methodological papers or guidelines for the assessment of polymorphism-screening. Since genetic testing has not only clinical and economic effects on health care, but also primarily ethical consequences by profiling our understanding of “health” and “disease”, this paper gives an overview of relevant aspects and background information to consider in the assessment of genetic tests. Although 2–3 million SNPs are identified and the journals are full of reported “significant” associations between disease and mutation, only a few can be replicated unequivocally. The ACCE -framework was developed by the Center of Disease Control for the assessment of genetic testing. This standardised appraisal approach proposes collecting and evaluating: Prevalence, genotype-/phenotype-relation. Clinical presentation: natural history; the different expressions of disease. Performance of the genetic test. Implications for therapy and prevention. Conclusion for clinical applications of risk-profiling of health on their susceptibility to disease and/or for clarification of disease for therapy planning. Since genetic testing is urging its way into the health care system, the actual danger is, that population screening starts before valid evidence from big prospective studies have been carried out and delivered proofs of direct causal associations. Before diffusing into the health care system we are suggesting to take a cautious and standardised approach. (shrink)