Empirical agreement is often used as an important criterion when assessing the validity of scientific models. However, it is by no means a sufficient criterion as a model can be so adjusted as to fit available data even though it is based on hypotheses whose plausibility is known to be questionable. Our aim in this paper is to investigate into the uses of empirical agreement within the process of model validation.

I introduce a new method for validating models—including stochastic models—that gets at the reliability of a model’s predictions under intervention or manipulation of its inputs and not merely at its predictive reliability under passive observation. The method is derived from philosophical work on natural kinds, and turns on comparing the dynamical symmetries of a model with those of its target, where dynamical symmetries are interventions on model variables that commute with time evolution. I demonstrate that this method (...) succeeds in testing aspects of model validity for which few other tools exist. (shrink)

This paper will discuss the recent LIGO-Virgo observations of gravitational waves and the binary black hole mergers that produce them. These observations rely on having prior knowledge of the dynamical behaviour of binary black hole systems, as governed by the Einstein Field Equations (EFEs). However, we currently lack any exact, analytic solutions to the EFEs describing such systems. In the absence of such solutions, a range of modelling approaches are used to mediate between the dynamical equations and the experimental data. (...) Models based on post-Newtonian approximation, the effective one-body formalism, and numerical relativity simulations (and combinations of these) bridge the gap between theory and observations and make the LIGO-Virgo experiments possible. In particular, this paper will consider how such models are validated as accurate descriptions of real-world binary black hole mergers (and the resulting gravitational waves) in the face of an epistemic circularity problem: the validity of these models must be assumed to justify claims about gravitational wave sources, but this validity can only be established based on these same observations. (shrink)

Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. (...) The primary value of models is heuristic. (shrink)

This paper responds to a recent challenge for the validity of extrapolation of neurobiological knowledge from laboratory animals to humans. According to this challenge, experimental neurobiology, and thus neuroscience, is in a state of crisis because the knowledge produced in different laboratories hardly generalizes from one laboratory to another. Presumably, this is so because neurobiological laboratories use simplified animal models of human conditions that differ across laboratories. By contrast, I argue that maintaining a multiplicity of experimental protocols and simple (...) models is well justified. It fosters rather than precludes the validity of extrapolation of neurobiological knowledge. The discipline is thriving. (shrink)

The current study seeks to validate L2 grit measure among 637 Chinese senior middle school students using a bifactor modeling approach. To do so, we first assessed and compared four alternative measurement models including CFA, bifactor CFA, ESEM, and bifactor ESEM models. Among these models, CFA exhibited the poorest fit to the data collected from the sample. ESEM showed partial fit to the data with a slightly lower factor correlation between two components of L2 grit than CFA. Two bifactor models (...) demonstrated excellent fits to the data. The more parsimonious bifactor CFA model was selected as the optimal one. Based on the bifactor CFA model, we confirmed measurement invariance across gender and predictive validity of L2 grit on subsequent language achievements. Based on these findings, methodological and pedagogical implications were discussed. (shrink)

PAMVEC is a novel vehicle modeling tool designed to complement the capabilities of dynamic vehicle simulators and be better-suited to the purposes of vehicle technology assessment. This paper presents a validation of PAMVEC against published data for a range of production and pre-production prototype vehicles whose powertrain technologies span the range currently being exhibited by automotive manufacturers. For each vehicle, the PAMVEC model was used to predict the fuel/energy consumption and required peak powertrain output due to acceleration performance. Errors (...) typically. (shrink)

We describe a new approach for developing and validating cognitive process models. We develop graphical models (specifically, hidden Markov models) both from human empirical data on a task, as well as from synthetic data traces generated by a cognitive process model of human behavior on the task. We show that considering differences between the two graphical models can unveil substantive and nuanced imperfections of cognitive process models that can then be addressed to increase their fidelity to empirical data.

Cognitive diagnostic assessment has been developed rapidly to provide fine-grained diagnostic feedback on students’ subskills and to provide insights on remedial instructions in specific domains. To date, most cognitive diagnostic studies on reading tests have focused on retrofitting a single booklet from a large-scale assessment. Critical issues in CDA involve the scarcity of research to develop diagnostic tests and the lack of reliability and validity evidence. This study explored the development and validation of the Diagnostic Chinese Reading Comprehension Assessment (...) for primary students under the CDA framework. Reading attributes were synthesized based on a literature review, the national curriculum criteria, the results of expert panel judgments, and student think-aloud protocols. Then, the tentative attributes were used to construct three booklets of reading comprehension items for 2–6 graders at three key stages. The assessment was administered to a large population of students in grades 2–6 from 20 schools in a district of Changchun City, China. Q-matrices were compared and refined using the model-data fit and an empirical validation procedure, and five representative cognitive diagnostic models were compared for optimal performance. The fit indices suggested that a six-attribute structure and the G-DINA model were best fitted for the reading comprehension assessment. In addition, diagnostic reliability, construct, internal and external validity results were provided, supporting CDM classifications as reliable, accurate, and useful. Such diagnostic information could be utilized by students, teachers, and administrators of reading programs and instructions. (shrink)

Byrne has demonstrated that although subjects can make deductively valid inferences of the modus ponens and modus tollens forms, these valid inferences can be suppressed by presenting an appropriate additional premise “If R then Q” with the original conditional “If P then Q”. This suppression effect challenges the assumption of all syntactic theories of conditional reasoning that formal rules of inference such as modus ponens is part of mental logic. This paper argues that both the syntactic and the mental (...) class='Hi'>model accounts of the suppression effect are inadequate because they fail to give a principled account of the critical interpretive component involved in reasoning. In contrast, the relative salience model proposed in this study emphasized the centrality of the interpretative processes with the critical component being the relative salience of premises as judged by subjects on the basis of their prior knowledge activated in particular problem situations. Using 120 undergraduates and 120 policemen as subjects, predictions from the model were tested and confirmed in a suppression paradigm and evidence of convergent validity for the construct of salience were obtained. The results cannot be reconciled with either the syntactic view or the mental model view that have dominated theories of conditional reasoning. (shrink)

Since Economics survey by Windrum et al., research on empirical validation of agent-based Agent-based model in Economics has made substantial advances, thanks to a constant flow of high-quality contributions. This Chapter attempts to take stock of such recent literature to offer an updated critical review of the existing validation techniques. We sketch a simple theoretical framework that conceptualizes existing validation approaches, which we examine along three different dimensions: Comparison between artificial and real-world Data; Calibration and estimation of model (...) parameters; and parameter space Exploration. Finally, we discuss open issues in the field of ABM validation and Estimation. In particular, we argue that more research efforts should be devoted toward advancing HypothesisTesting in ABM, with specific emphasis on model stationarity and ergodicity. (shrink)

In recent years, workplace well-being has been a popular research topic, because it is helpful to promote employees’ welfare, thereby bringing valuable personal and organizational outcomes. With the development of technology, the technology industry plays an important role in Taiwan. Although the salary and benefits provided by the technology industry are better than other industries, the work often requires a lot of time and effort. It is worth paying attention to whether a happy workplace will bring subjective well-being for the (...) technology industry in Taiwan. This study explored the influence of workplace well-being, job involvement, and flow on the subjective well-being. The research was conducted by a questionnaire survey. A total of 256 employees in the technology industry in the Nanzi Processing Zone in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan were surveyed. Collected data were analyzed by statistical methods, such as multivariate and structural equation models. The study results indicated that workplace well-being, flow, and job involvement have a positive and significant impact on the subjective well-being. In addition to having a direct impact on subjective well-being, flow is also a significant variable to mediate the impact of workplace well-being to subjective well-being. In addition, job involvement also affects subjective well-being through flow, which means that the state of selflessness at work is the most important factor affecting subjective well-being. Finally, based on the research findings, the researcher provided practical suggestions to the government and the technology industry. (shrink)

Qualitative validation consists in showing that a model is able to mimic available observed data. In population level biological models, the available data frequently represent a group status, such as pool testing, rather than the individual statuses. They are aggregated. Our objective was to explore an approach for qualitative validation of a model with aggregated data and to apply it to validate a stochastic model simulating the bovine viral-diarrhoea virus (BVDV) spread within a dairy cattle herd. Repeated (...) measures of the level of BVDV-specific antibodies in the bulk-tank milk (total milk production of a herd) were used to summarise the BVDV herd status. First, a domain of validation was defined to ensure a comparison restricted to dynamics of pathogen spread well identified among observed aggregated data (new herd infection with a wide BVDV spread). For simulations, scenarios were defined and simulation outputs at the individual animal level were aggregated at the herd level using an aggregation function. Comparison was done only for observed data and simulated aggregated outputs that were in the domain of validation. The validity of our BVDV model was not rejected. Drawbacks and ways of improvement of the approach are discussed. (shrink)

Animal models of human disease play a central role in modern biomedical science. Developing animal models for human mental illness presents unique practical and philosophical challenges. In this article we argue that existing animal models of psychiatric disease are not valid, attempts to model syndromes are undermined by current nosology, models of symptoms are rife with circular logic and anthropomorphism, any model must make unjustified assumptions about subjective experience, and any model deemed valid would be inherently unethical, (...) for if an animal adequately models human subjective experience, then there is no morally relevant difference between that animal and a human. (shrink)

Controlled elicitation of linguistic and psycholinguistic experimental data facilitate strong inferences about phonological, syntactic, semantic and pragmatic structures and functions, yet neglect the ecological validity of responses. Ecological validity in this paper refers to whether data gathered under controlled conditions are commensurate with routine problem solving and language use in natural settings. All methods produce "white room" effects that compromise data gathering and analysis. Unexamined folk knowledge and experiences also guide the investigator s interpretation of data from field (...) research, laboratories, testing sessions, and target sentences. Story recall data from children in a combined second-third grade classroom and their narrative responses to cartoons without sound are used to illustrate ecological validity issues. The child's spontaneous, imaginative narratives about the story and cartoons resemble adult folk theory, and their semantic content reveal sociocultural knowledge essential for understanding subjects ' reasoning and information processing skills. (shrink)

This paper provides a historical analysis of a shift in the way animal models of mental disorders were conceptualized: the shift from the mid-twentieth-century view, adopted by some, that animal models model syndromes classified in manuals such as the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), to the later widespread view that animal models model component parts of psychiatric syndromes. I argue that in the middle of the twentieth century the attempt to maximize the face validity (...) of animal models sometimes led to the pursuit of the ideal of an animal model that represented a behaviorally defined psychiatric syndrome as described in manuals such as the DSM. I show how developments within psychiatric genetics and related criticism of the DSM in the 1990s and 2000s led to the rejection of this ideal and how researchers in the first decade of the twenty-first century came to believe that animal models of mental disorders should model component parts of mental disorders, adopting a so-called endophenotype approach. (shrink)

We agree that external validity of social psychological experiments is a concern, we disagree these models are useless. Experiments, reconsidered from a situated cognition perspective and non-linearly combined with other methods allow grasping decision dynamics beyond bias outcomes. Dynamic insights regarding these processes are key to understand missing forces and bias in real-world social groups.

The -logic of Terwijn is a variant of first-order logic with the same syntax in which the models are equipped with probability measures and the quantifier is interpreted as ‘there exists a set A of a measure such that for each,...’. Previously, Kuyper and Terwijn proved that the general satisfiability and validity problems for this logic are, i) for rational, respectively -complete and -hard, and ii) for, respectively decidable and -complete. The adjective ‘general’ here means ‘uniformly over all languages’. (...) We extend these results in the scenario of finite models. In particular, we show that the problems of satisfiability and validity with respect to finite models in E-logic are, i) for rational, respectively -complete and -complete, and ii) for, respectively decidable and -complete. Although partial results toward the countable case are also achieved, the computability of E-logic over countable models still remains largely unsolved. In addition, most o... (shrink)

Take a formula of first-order logic which is a logical consequence of some other formulae according to model theory, and in all those formulae replace schematic letters with English expressions. Is the argument resulting from the replacement valid in the sense that the premisses could not have been true without the conclusion also being true? Can we reason from the model-theoretic concept of logical consequence to the modal concept of validity? Yes, if the model theory is (...) the standard one for sentential logic; no, if it is the standard one for the predicate calculus; and yes, if it is a certain model theory for free logic. These conclusions rely inter alia on some assumptions about possible worlds, which are mapped into the models of model theory. Plural quantification is used in the last section, while part of the reasoning is relegated to an appendix that includes a proof of completeness for a version of free logic. (shrink)

A key issue in the business ethics field is the design of effective measures for assessing the ethical culture of organizations. The Corporate Ethical Virtues Model (CEV), developed by Kaptein in 2008, is an instrument for measuring ethical culture, and has been applied, adapted and validated in different contexts. In 2013, DeBode, Armenakis, Field and Walker developed the CEV–S, a shortened version of the original scale. Both the CEV and CEV–S assess eight dimensions based on corporate ethical virtues: clarity, (...) congruency of supervisors, congruency of senior management, feasibility, supportability, transparency, discussability and sanctionability. The objective of this study is to present a Spanish version of the CEV–S and its validation process. The scale was applied to two samples of 114 and 193 Colombian employees from two companies operating in the services sector. The confirmatory factor analyses revealed a good fit for the eight-factor structure of the Spanish CEV–S and the statistical tests applied showed good levels of reliability and validity for this scale. The adequate psychometric properties shown by the Spanish CEV–S may support its use in future research to measure organizational ethical culture in Spanish-speaking settings. (shrink)

Prior to statistical mechanics and especially before the advent of the new quantum mechanics, it was traditionally held, following in the main the Kantian philosophy, that the task of science is to attain a unique quantitative representation of reality. It was thought—and with justifiable zeal—that a scientific discipline is exact to the extent to which a mathematical pattern yielding quantitative relations can be applied to its subject matter. This view was based on the implicit assumptions that functional relatedness conducive to (...) quantitative evaluation is bound to reveal the most generic, and hence, the most essential traits of events. (shrink)

Introduction to modelling and validation -- Non-hierarchical coloured petri nets -- CPN ML programming -- Formal definition of non-hierarchical coloured petri nets -- Hierarchical coloured petri nets -- Formal defintion of hierarchical coloured petri nets -- State spaces and behavioural properties -- Advanced state space methods -- Formal definition of state spaces and behavioural properties -- Timed coloured petri nets -- Formal definition of timed coloured petri nets -- Simulation-based performance analysis -- Behavioural visualisation -- Examples of industrial applications -- (...) Teaching coloured petri nets. (shrink)

This paper presents an effort to induce a Bayesian belief network (BBN) from crime data, namely the national crime victimization survey (NCVS). This BBN defines a joint probability distribution over a set of variables that were employed to record a set of crime incidents, with particular focus on characteristics of the victim. The goals are to generate a BBN to capture how characteristics of crime incidents are related to one another, and to make this information available to domain specialists. The (...) novelty associated with the study reported in this paper lies in the use of a Bayesian network to represent a complex data set to non-experts in a way that facilitates automated analysis. Validation of the BBN’s ability to approximate the joint probability distribution over the set of variables entailed in the NCVS data set is accomplished through a variety of sources including mathematical techniques and human experts for appropriate triangulation. Validation results indicate that the BBN induced from the NCVS data set is a good joint probability model for the set of attributes in the domain, and accordingly can serve as an effective query tool. (shrink)

ABSTRACTThe present study describes the development and validation of a facial expression database comprising five different horizontal face angles in dynamic and static presentations. The database includes twelve expression types portrayed by eight Japanese models. This database was inspired by the dimensional and categorical model of emotions: surprise, fear, sadness, anger with open mouth, anger with closed mouth, disgust with open mouth, disgust with closed mouth, excitement, happiness, relaxation, sleepiness, and neutral. The expressions were validated using emotion classification and (...) Affect Grid rating tasks [Russell, Weiss, & Mendelsohn, 1989. Affect Grid: A single-item scale of pleasure and arousal. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 493–502]. The results indicate that most of the expressions were recognised as the intended emotions and could systematically represent affective valence and arousal. Furthermore, face angle and facial motion information influenced emot... (shrink)

Simple heuristics and regression models make different assumptions about behaviour. Both the environment and judgment can be described as fast and frugal. We do not know whether humans are successful when being fast and frugal. We must assess both global accuracy and the costs of Type I and II errors. These may be “smart heuristics that make researchers look simple.”.

The global impact of COVID-19 has seriously affected health and livelihood in every country or region, especially in terms of physical consumption behaviors. Hairdressing is an essential physical consumption behavior. To prevent infection, the consumption model for using the beauty industry matchmaking platform has been used during the pandemic. This study investigates the changes in the behavior of media app users in the beauty industry in the post-epidemic era of COVID-19. The COM-B model is the basis for a (...) research framework to study the factors that affect changes in behavior in the areas of Capability, Motivation, and Opportunity of the theoretical framework. A new dimension of fashion sense has expanded the application and validation of the COM-B model to determine the causal relationship between the ability to pursue beauty, motivation, fashion sense, and opportunities by using the platform and the dimension of user behavior. The study finds that fashion sense in the BIMP has a positive and significant impact on beauty care ability, self-motivation to pursue beauty and future cooperation opportunities. The ability, motivation and opportunity to act are all positively significant, which is in agreement with the theoretical framework of the COM-B model. There is no mediating effect for motivation between fashion sense and behavior. The results of this study show that increasing the sense of fashion for members using the BIMP will increases active behavior for members using the platform. This study also proposes practical suggestions for the operation of the BIMP based on the results. (shrink)

Critics of animal modeling have advanced a variety of arguments against the validity of the practice. The point of one such form of argument is to establish that animal modeling is pointless and therefore immoral. In this article, critical arguments of this form are divided into three types, the pseudoscience argument, the disanalogy argument, and the predictive validity argument. I contend that none of these criticisms currently succeed, nor are they likely to. However, the connection between validity (...) and morality is important, suggesting that critical efforts would be instructive if they addressed it in a more nuanced way. (shrink)

Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD).

Recent studies of Italian past definite and past participle forms show that human performance with regular and irregular inflections is not dissociated as Clahsen's model would predict. Some performance profiles, accounted for by dual-mechanism models in terms of an underlying symbol-manipulating combinatorial procedure, are generated in Italian by the higher learnability and generalizability of phonologically regular morphological processes.

ABSTRACTSpatial cueing paradigms are popular tools to assess human attention to emotional stimuli, but different variants of these paradigms differ in what participants’ primary task is. In one variant, participants indicate the location of the target, whereas in the other they indicate the shape of the target. In the present paper we test the idea that although these two variants produce seemingly comparable cue validity effects on response times, they rest on different underlying processes. Across four studies using both (...) variants and manipulating the motivational relevance of cue content, diffusion model analyses revealed that cue validity effects in location tasks are primarily driven by response biases, whereas the same effect rests on delay due to attention to the cue in identification tasks. Based on this, we predict and empirically support that a symmetrical distribution of valid and invalid cues would reduce cue validity... (shrink)

The problem analysed in this paper is whether we can gain knowledge by using valid inferences, and how we can explain this process from a model-theoretic perspective. According to the paradox of inference (Cohen & Nagel 1936/1998, 173), it is logically impossible for an inference to be both valid and its conclusion to possess novelty with respect to the premises. I argue in this paper that valid inference has an epistemic significance, i.e., it can be used by an agent (...) to enlarge his knowledge, and this significance can be accounted in model-theoretic terms. I will argue first that the paradox is based on an equivocation, namely, it arises because logical containment, i.e., logical implication, is identified with epistemological containment, i.e., the knowledge of the premises entails the knowledge of the conclusion. Second, I will argue that a truth-conditional theory of meaning has the necessary resources to explain the epistemic significance of valid inferences. I will explain this epistemic significance starting from Carnap’s semantic theory of meaning and Tarski’s notion of satisfaction. In this way I will counter (Prawitz 2012b)’s claim that a truth-conditional theory of meaning is not able to account the legitimacy of valid inferences, i.e., their epistemic significance. (shrink)

Research on the joint effect of multiple motives for studying was recently given a push in a new direction with the introduction of the motivational mindset model. This model contributes to a better understanding of study success and student wellbeing in higher education. The aim of the present study is to validate the newly developed model and the associated mindset classification tool. To this end, 662 first-year university students were classified in one of the four types of (...) motivational mindset using the classification tool and three exploratory validation procedures were conducted through sense of purpose, study engagement, and students’ background characteristics in terms of gender and ethnicity. Both purpose and study engagement are central dimensions of student wellbeing and predictors of study success. The results show that sense of purpose and study engagement differ across the four types of mindset, students in the low-impact mindset show the least optimal pattern of study engagement and sense of purpose, sense of purpose and study engagement are positively related and this relationship is consistent across mindsets, and overall differences in purpose and study engagement between gender and ethnic subgroups stem from one specific type of motivational mindset. The results provide support for the validity of the MMM and the usefulness of the MCT. The implications of the findings are discussed as well as promising avenues for future research. (shrink)