The application of the formal framework of causal Bayesian Networks to children’s causal learning provides the motivation to examine the link between judgments about the causal structure of a system, and the ability to make inferences about interventions on components of the system. Three experiments examined whether children are able to make correct inferences about interventions on different causal structures. The first two experiments examined whether children’s causal structure and intervention judgments were consistent with one another. In Experiment 1, children (...) aged between 4 and 8 years made causal structure judgments on a three-component causal system followed by counterfactual intervention judgments. In Experiment 2, children’s causal structure judgments were followed by intervention judgments phrased as future hypotheticals. In Experiment 3, we explicitly told children what the correct causal structure was and asked them to make intervention judgments. The results of the three experiments suggest that the representations that support causal structure judgments do not easily support simple judgments about interventions in children. We discuss our findings in light of strong interventionist claims that the two types of judgments should be closely linked. (shrink)

There are challenges to the dominant research paradigm in breast cancer science. In the United States, science and social activism create paradigmatic shifts. Using interviews, ethnographic observations, and an extensive review of the literature, we create a three-dimensional model to situate changes in scientific controversy concerning environmental causes of breast cancer. We identify three paradigm challenges posed by activists and some scientists: to move debates about causation upstream to address causes; to shift emphasis from individual to modifiable societal-level factors beyond (...) an individual’s control; and to allow direct lay involvement in research, which may raise new questions and change how questions are approached, the methods used, and the standards of proof. We use our model to examine controversies about doing scientific research, interpreting scientific results, and acting on science. Ultimately, we aim to understand what impedes construction of new methodologies and knowledge about environmental factors in human disease. (shrink)

The title of this book refers to a particular construction of the world that brooks no uncertainty: 'things are the way I believe them to be'.

Previous research on counterfactual thoughts about prevention suggests that people tend to focus on enabling rather than causing events and controllable rather than uncontrollable events. Two experiments explore whether counterfactual thinking about enablers is distinct from counterfactual thinking about controllable events. We presented participants with scenarios in which a cause and an enabler contributed to a negative outcome. We systematically manipulated the controllability of the cause and the enabler and asked participants to generate counterfactuals. The results indicate that when only (...) the cause or the enabler is controllable participants undid the controllable event more often. However, when the cause and enabler are matched in controllability participants undid the enabler slightly more often. The findings are discussed in the context of the mental model, functional and judgement dissociation theories as well as previous research on counterfactual thinking. The importance of controllability and.. (shrink)

Indicative conditionals and tendency causal claims are closely related (e.g., Frosch and Byrne, 2012), but despite these connections, they are usually studied separately. A unifying framework could consist in their dependence on probabilistic factors such as high conditional probability and statistical relevance (e.g., Adams, 1975; Eells, 1991; Douven, 2008, 2015). This paper presents a comparative empirical study on differences between judgments on tendency causal claims and indicative conditionals, how these judgments are driven by probabilistic factors, and how these factors (...) differ in their predictive power for both causal and conditional claims. (shrink)

Originally published in Proceedings of the British Academy 60 (1974), 339-359.

Originally published in Proceedings of the British Academy 60 (1974), 339-359.

The paper distinguishes versions of the 'Agency theory of causation' and defends some of them against the charge of circularity.

With obstacles at various levels of government, multi-level settings provide complex challenges for the implementation of gender mainstreaming. Policy transfer appears to hold some explanatory potential in these sorts of contexts; scholarship however, still tends to focus on single sources of influence – either European or domestic – and potentially misses the broader picture. This article revisits the classic question of who learns what from whom by addressing the implementation of gender mainstreaming in research policies in the Spanish regions through (...) the lens of policy transfer. Measures to tackle gender inequality in science have been developed at the EU, state and regional levels, thus enabling the three regions studied here – Galicia, the Basque Country and the Balearic Islands – to ‘borrow’ good practices from different layers of government. This article suggests that more nuanced frameworks, recognizing that multi-level settings are potential sites for complex lesson-drawing processes, are likely to offer greater explanatory depth. (shrink)