Based on upper echelon theory, we employ machine learning to explore how CEO characteristics influence corporate violations using a large-scale dataset of listed firms in China for the period 2010–2020. Comparing ten machine learning methods, we find that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) outperforms the other models in predicting corporate violations. An interpretable model combining XGBoost and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) indicates that CEO characteristics play a central role in predicting corporate violations. Tenure has the strongest predictive (...) power and is negatively associated with corporate violations, followed by marketing experience, education, duality (i.e., simultaneously holding the position of chairperson), and research and development experience. In contrast, shareholdings, age, and pay are positively related to corporate violations. We also analyze violation severity and violation type, confirming the role of tenure in predicting more severe and intentional violations. Overall, our findings contribute to preventing corporate violations, improving corporate governance, and maintaining order in the financial market. (shrink)

Learning a deep structure representation for complex information networks is a vital research area, and assessing the quality of stereoscopic images or videos is challenging due to complex 3D quality factors. In this paper, we explore how to extract effective features to enhance the prediction accuracy of perceptual quality assessment. Inspired by the structure representation of the human visual system and the machine learning technique, we propose a no-reference quality assessment scheme for stereoscopic (...) images. More specifically, the statistical features of the gradient magnitude and Laplacian of Gaussian responses are extracted to form binocular quality-predictive features. After feature extraction, these features of distorted stereoscopic image and its human perceptual score are used to construct a statistical regression model with the machine learning technique. Experimental results on the benchmark databases show that the proposed model generates image quality prediction well correlated with the human visual perception and delivers highly competitive performance with the typical and representative methods. The proposed scheme can be further applied to the real-world applications on video broadcasting and 3D multimedia industry. (shrink)

Software defects prediction at the initial period of the software development life cycle remains a critical and important assignment. Defect prediction and correctness leads to the assurance of the quality of software systems and has remained integral to study in the previous years. The quick forecast of imperfect or defective modules in software development can serve the development squad to use the existing assets competently and effectively to provide remarkable software products in a given short timeline. Hitherto, several researchers (...) have industrialized defect prediction models by utilizing statistical and machine learning techniques that are operative and effective approaches to pinpoint the defective modules. Tree family machine learning techniques are well-thought-out to be one of the finest and ordinarily used supervised learning methods. In this study, different tree family machine learning techniques are employed for software defect prediction using ten benchmark datasets. These techniques include Credal Decision Tree, Cost-Sensitive Decision Forest, Decision Stump, Forest by Penalizing Attributes, Hoeffding Tree, Decision Tree, Logistic Model Tree, Random Forest, Random Tree, and REP-Tree. Performance of each technique is evaluated using different measures, i.e., mean absolute error, relative absolute error, root mean squared error, root relative squared error, specificity, precision, recall, F-measure, G-measure, Matthew’s correlation coefficient, and accuracy. The overall outcomes of this paper suggested RF technique by producing best results in terms of reducing error rates as well as increasing accuracy on five datasets, i.e., AR3, PC1, PC2, PC3, and PC4. The average accuracy achieved by RF is 90.2238%. The comprehensive outcomes of this study can be used as a reference point for other researchers. Any assertion concerning the enhancement in prediction through any new model, technique, or framework can be benchmarked and verified. (shrink)

This study aims to examine the main determinants of efficiency of both conventional and Islamic Saudi banks and then choose the best fit model among machine learning prediction models, Chi-squared automatic interaction detector, linear regression, and neural network ). The data were collected from the annual financial reports of Saudi banks from 2014 to 2018. The Saudi banking sector consists of 11 banks, 4 of which are Islamic. In this study, the major financial ratios are subgrouped into the (...) profitability ratios, managerial practices, asset and loans, capital adequacy ratios, and liquidity. First, regression analysis is implemented with efficiency ratio as a dependent variable and the proxies of banks’ profitability, liquidity, asset quality, management ratios, and capital adequacy ratios as independent variables. Next, the feature selection is applied for different prediction models. Subsequently, 4 prediction models were developed to choose the best fit. The performance metrics have also been evaluated. Regression results exhibit that the efficiency of both conventional and Islamic banks is highly affected by profitability, liquidity, and managerial practices. Finally, we choose the best prediction model with the highest R2 in the training and the testing phases with/out feature selection that is the CHAID model. The best predictors of cost efficiency for Saudi banks are the capital ratios, namely, CAR total and CAR tier 1. Findings are theoretically and practically important to academics, investors, and policymakers. Policymakers can benefit from the novelty of this study in building an early warning system using the CHAID model to predict different financial distress scenarios. (shrink)

Nowadays, online product reviews have been at the heart of the product assessment process for a company and its customers. They give feedback to a company on improving product quality, planning, and monitoring its business schemes in order to increase sale and gain more profit. They are also helpful for customers to select the right products in less effort and time. Most companies make spam reviews of products in order to increase the products sales and gain more profit. Detecting (...) spam product reviews is a challenging issue in NLP. Numerous machine learning approaches have attempted to detect and classify the product reviews as spam or nonspam. However, in order to improve the classification accuracy, this study has introduced an ensemble machine learning model that combines predictions from multilayer perceptron, K-Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest and predicts the outcome of the review as spam or real, based on the majority vote of the contributing models. In order to accomplish the task of spam review classification, the proposed ensemble and other benchmark boosting approaches are tested with 25 statistical features extracted from mobile application reviews of Yelp Dataset. Then, three different selection techniques are exploited to diminish the feature space and filter out the top 10 optimal features. The effectiveness of the proposed ensemble, the individual models, and other benchmark boosting approaches is again evaluated with 10 optimal features in terms of classification accuracy. Experimental outcomes illustrate that the proposed ensemble model outperformed the individual classifiers and state-of-the-art boosting approaches like Generalized Boost Regression Model, Extreme Gradient Boost, and AdaBoost Regression Model in terms of classification accuracy. (shrink)

Precise global solar radiation data are indispensable to the design, planning, operation, and management of solar radiation utilization equipment. Some examples prove that the uncertainty of the prediction of solar radiation provides more value than deterministic ones in the management of power systems. This study appraises the potential of random forest, V-support vector regression, and a resilient backpropagation artificial neural network for daily global solar radiation point prediction from average relative humidity, daily average temperature, and daily sunshine duration. To acquire (...) more accurate predictions of DGSR and examine the influence of historical DGSR on the performance of point prediction models, two different model inputs are considered: three meteorological variables and the lags of DGSR and three meteorological variables. Then, two interval prediction methods are developed by introducing the KDE to out-of-bag, introducing kernel density estimation to split conformal based on the three machine learning models. The two methods for interval prediction are denoted as OOB-KDE and SC-KDE. The mean absolute error, mean relative error, and Kendall rank correlation are used to assess the point prediction models. The performance of interval prediction methods is evaluated by the prediction interval coverage probability, prediction interval normalized average width, and coverage width criteria. The following conclusions are drawn from this study. First, the V-SVR model performs best with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.016 and mean relative error of 0.001. Second, the lags of DGSR improve the prediction accuracy by about 30%. Third, the OOB-KDE and SC-KDE methods improved the quality of the prediction interval. OOB-KDE improved CWC by 81%, and SC-KDE improved CWC by 99.99%. Fourth, the best interval prediction result is obtained using the SC-KDE method using the V-SVR model. The average difference between its PICP and prediction interval nominal coverage is only 3% of the PINC, and its PINAW is less than 0.007. (shrink)

The management control system aids administrators in guiding a business toward its organizational plans; as a result, management control is primarily concerned with the execution of the plan and plans. Financial and nonfinancial criteria are used to create management control systems. The financial element focuses on net income, earnings, and other financial metrics. The two components of leadership strategy in this study are cost and differentiation, which highlight the strategy of differentiation in attaining higher quality due to the robust (...) strategy’s attention on a particular area of the company. In this study, we presented a novel method named deep interaction neural network to predict the performance of the manufacturing companies based on their leading competitors using features cost leadership and differentiation strategies. Moreover, the management control system is classified into two financial and nonfinancial factors based on machine learning methods. Based on the results, the presented factors can accurately estimate the company’s performance based on management control criteria with a 93.48% R-square. Moreover, it can be seen that the DT method is presented with higher classification performance values. (shrink)

This paper explores the integration of machine learning into economics and social sciences, assessing its potential impact and limitations. It introduces fundamental machine learning concepts and principles, highlighting the differences between the two disciplines, particularly the focus on causal inference in economics and prediction in machine learning. The paper discusses diverse applications of machine learning, from extracting insights from unstructured data to creating novel indicators and improving predictive accuracy, while also addressing challenges (...) related to data quality, computational efficiency, and data ownership. It emphasizes the importance of standardization, transparency, and ethical considerations in prediction tasks, recognizing that machine learning is a powerful tool but cannot replace economic theory. Ultimately, researchers remain optimistic about the transformative potential of machine learning in re-shaping research methodologies and generating new insights in economics and social sciences. (shrink)

Lower extremity non-contact soft tissue injuries are prevalent in elite futsal. The purpose of this study was to develop robust screening models based on pre-season measures obtained from questionnaires and field-based tests to prospectively predict LE-ST injuries after having applied a range of supervised Machine Learning techniques. One hundred and thirty-nine elite futsal players underwent a pre-season screening evaluation that included individual characteristics; measures related to sleep quality, athlete burnout, psychological characteristics related to sport performance and self-reported (...) perception of chronic ankle instability. A number of neuromuscular performance measures obtained through three field-based tests [isometric hip strength, dynamic postural control and lower extremity joints range of motion ] were also recorded. Injury incidence was monitored over one competitive season. There were 25 LE-ST injuries. Only those groups of measures from two of the field-based tests, as independent data sets, were able to build robust models [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve score ≥0.7] to identify elite futsal players at risk of sustaining a LE-ST injury. Unlike the measures obtained from the five questionnaires selected, the neuromuscular performance measures did build robust prediction models. The inclusion in the same data set of the measures recorded from all the questionnaires and field-based tests did not result in models with significantly higher performance scores. The model generated by the UnderBagging technique with a cost-sensitive SMO as the base classifier and using only four ROM measures reported the best prediction performance scores. The models developed might help coaches, physical trainers and medical practitioners in the decision-making process for injury prevention in futsal. (shrink)

An important topic in evolutionary art is the development of systems that can mimic the aesthetics decisions made by human begins, e.g., fitness evaluations made by humans using interactive evolution in generative art. This paper focuses on the analysis of several datasets used for aesthetic prediction based on ratings from photography websites and psychological experiments. Since these datasets present problems, we proposed a new dataset that is a subset of DPChallenge.com. Subsequently, three different evaluation methods were considered, one derived from (...) the ratings available at DPChallenge.com and two obtained under experimental conditions related to the aesthetics and quality of images. We observed different criteria in the DPChallenge.com ratings, which had more to do with the photographic quality than with the aesthetic value. Finally, we explored learning systems other than state-of-the-art ones, in order to predict these three values. The obtained results were similar to those using state-of-the-art procedures. (shrink)

PurposeAlthough an increasing body of literature suggests a relationship between brain irradiation and deterioration of neurocognitive function, it remains as the standard therapeutic and prophylactic modality in patients with brain tumors. This review was aimed to abstract and evaluate the prediction models for radiation-induced neurocognitive decline in patients with primary or secondary brain tumors.MethodsMEDLINE was searched on October 31, 2021 for publications containing relevant truncation and MeSH terms related to “radiotherapy,” “brain,” “prediction model,” and “neurocognitive impairments.” Risk of bias was (...) assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool.ResultsOf 3,580 studies reviewed, 23 prediction models were identified. Age, tumor location, education level, baseline neurocognitive score, and radiation dose to the hippocampus were the most common predictors in the models. The Hopkins verbal learning and the trail making tests were the most frequent outcome assessment tools. All studies used regression as machine learning method. All models were judged to have a high risk of bias mainly due to issues in the analysis.ConclusionExisting models have limited quality and are at high risk of bias. Following recommendations are outlined in this review to improve future models: developing cognitive assessment instruments taking into account the peculiar traits of the different brain tumors and radiation modalities; adherence to model development and validation guidelines; careful choice of candidate predictors according to the literature and domain expert consensus; and considering radiation dose to brain substructures as they can provide important information on specific neurocognitive impairments. (shrink)

In order to build high-quality concrete, it is imperative to know the raw materials in advance. It is possible to accurately predict the quality of concrete and the amount of raw materials used using machine learning-enhanced methods. An automated process based on machine learning strategies is proposed in this paper for predicting the compressive strength of concrete. Fusion-learning-based optimization is used in the proposed approach to generate a strong learner by pooling support vector (...) regression models. The SVR technique proposes an optimization method for finding the kernel radial basis function parameters based on improving the innovative gunner algorithm. As a result of AIG's diverse solutions, local optima are effectively avoided. Therefore, the novelty of our research is that, in solving the uncertainty of predicted outputs based on integrated models, we use fusion-learning-based optimization to improve regression discrimination. We also collected a standard dataset to analyze the proposed algorithm, and subsequently, the dataset was designed from concrete laboratory tests on 244 samples, seven features, and three outputs. Different regression intensities are determined by correlation analysis of responses. Regression fusion is sufficiently accurate to estimate the number of desired outcomes examined based on the appropriate input data sample. The best quality concrete can be achieved with an error rate of less than 5%. (shrink)

Learning the structure of event sequences is a ubiquitous problem in cognition and particularly in language. One possible solution is to learn a probabilistic generative model of sequences that allows making predictions about upcoming events. Though appealing from a neurobiological standpoint, this approach is typically not pursued in connectionist modeling. Here, we investigated a sequential version of the restricted Boltzmann machine, a stochastic recurrent neural network that extracts high-order structure from sensory data through unsupervised generative learning and (...) can encode contextual information in the form of internal, distributed representations. We assessed whether this type of network can extract the orthographic structure of English monosyllables by learning a generative model of the letter sequences forming a word training corpus. We show that the network learned an accurate probabilistic model of English graphotactics, which can be used to make predictions about the letter following a given context as well as to autonomously generate high-quality pseudowords. The model was compared to an extended version of simple recurrent networks, augmented with a stochastic process that allows autonomous generation of sequences, and to non-connectionist probabilistic models. We conclude that sequential RBMs and stochastic simple recurrent networks are promising candidates for modeling cognition in the temporal domain. (shrink)

When courts started publishing judgements, big data analysis within the legal domain became possible. By taking data from the European Court of Human Rights as an example, we investigate how natural language processing tools can be used to analyse texts of the court proceedings in order to automatically predict judicial decisions. With an average accuracy of 75% in predicting the violation of 9 articles of the European Convention on Human Rights our approach highlights the potential of machine learning (...) approaches in the legal domain. We show, however, that predicting decisions for future cases based on the cases from the past negatively impacts performance. Furthermore, we demonstrate that we can achieve a relatively high classification performance when predicting outcomes based only on the surnames of the judges that try the case. (shrink)

As more objections have been raised against grant peer-review for being costly and time-consuming, the legitimate question arises whether machine learning algorithms could help assess the epistemic efficiency of the proposed projects. As a case study, we investigated whether project efficiency in high energy physics can be algorithmically predicted based on the data from the proposal. To analyze the potential of algorithmic prediction in HEP, we conducted a study on data about the structure and outcomes of HEP experiments (...) with the goal of predicting their efficiency. In the first step, we assessed the project efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis of 67 experiments conducted in the HEP laboratory Fermilab. In the second step, we employed predictive algorithms to detect which team structures maximize the epistemic performance of an expert group. For this purpose, we used the efficiency scores obtained by DEA and applied predictive algorithms – lasso and ridge linear regression, neural network, and gradient boosted trees – on them. The results of the predictive analyses show moderately high accuracy, indicating that they can be beneficial as one of the steps in grant review. Still, their applicability in practice should be approached with caution. Some of the limitations of the algorithmic approach are the unreliability of citation patterns, unobservable variables that influence scientific success, and the potential predictability of the model. (shrink)

Machine learning (ML) models recently led to major breakthroughs in predictive tasks in the natural sciences. Yet their benefits for the social sciences are less evident, as even high-profile studies on the prediction of life trajectories have shown to be largely unsuccessful – at least when measured in traditional criteria of scientific success. This paper tries to shed light on this remarkable performance gap. Comparing two social science case studies to a paradigm example from the natural sciences, we (...) argue that, in addition to explanation, prediction is an important goal of social science – and we identify constraints that impede pure ML prediction from being successful in that field. As a remedy, we outline elements of an integrative modelling approach that combines explanatory models and predictive ML models. (shrink)

This study focuses on a traditional business ethics question and aims to use advanced techniques to improve the performance of corporate fraud prediction. Based on the GONE framework, we adopt the machine learning model to predict the occurrence of corporate fraud in China. We first identify a comprehensive set of fraud-related variables and organize them into each category (i.e., Greed, Opportunity, Need, and Exposure) of the GONE framework. Among the six machine learning models tested, the Random (...) Forest (RF) model outperforms the other five models in corporate fraud prediction. Based on the RF model, we show that Exposure variables play a more important role in predicting corporate fraud than other input variables. These results highlight the importance of Exposure variables in corporate fraud prediction and promote the practical use of the machine learning model in solving business ethics questions. (shrink)

The fields of machine learning (ML) and cognitive science have developed complementary approaches to computationally modeling human behavior. ML's primary concern is maximizing prediction accuracy; cognitive science's primary concern is explaining the underlying mechanisms. Cross-talk between these disciplines is limited, likely because the tasks and goals usually differ. The domain of e-learning and knowledge acquisition constitutes a fruitful intersection for the two fields’ methodologies to be integrated because accurately tracking learning and forgetting over time and predicting (...) future performance based on learning histories are central to developing effective, personalized learning tools. Here, we show how a state-of-the-art ML model can be enhanced by incorporating insights from a cognitive model of human memory. This was done by exploiting the predictive performance equation's (PPE) narrow but highly specialized domain knowledge with regard to the temporal dynamics of learning and forgetting. Specifically, the PPE was used to engineer timing-related input features for a gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT) model. The resulting PPE-enhanced GBDT outperformed the default GBDT, especially under conditions in which limited data were available for training. Results suggest that integrating cognitive and ML models could be particularly productive if the available data are too high-dimensional to be explained by a cognitive model but not sufficiently large to effectively train a modern ML algorithm. Here, the cognitive model's insights pertaining to only one aspect of the data were enough to jump-start the ML model's ability to make predictions—a finding that holds promise for future explorations. (shrink)

This paper proposes a nonlinear autoregressive neural network method for the investment performance evaluation of state-owned enterprises. It is different from the traditional method based on machine learning, such as linear regression, structural equation, clustering, and principal component analysis; this paper uses a regression prediction method to analyze investment efficiency. In this paper, we firstly analyze the relationship between diversified ownership reform, corporate debt leverage, and the investment efficiency of state-owned enterprises. Secondly, a set of investment efficiency evaluation (...) index system for SOE was constructed, and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network approach was used for verification. The data of A-share state-owned listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2009 to 2018 are taken as a sample. The experimental results show that the output value from the NARNET is highly fitted to the actual data. Based on the neural network model regression analysis, this paper conducts a descriptive statistical analysis of the main variables and control variables of the evaluation indicators. It verifies the direct impact of diversified ownership reform on the investment efficiency of SOE and the indirect impact on the investment efficiency of SOE through corporate debt leverage. (shrink)

Due to the inherent chaotic and fractal dynamics in the price series of Bitcoin, this paper proposes a two-stage Bitcoin price prediction model by combining the advantage of variational mode decomposition and technical analysis. VMD eliminates the noise signals and stochastic volatility in the price data by decomposing the data into variational mode functions, while technical analysis uses statistical trends obtained from past trading activity and price changes to construct technical indicators. The support vector regression accepts input from a hybrid (...) of technical indicators and reconstructed variational mode functions. The model is trained, validated, and tested in a period characterized by unprecedented economic turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing the evaluation of the model in the presence of the pandemic. The constructed hybrid model outperforms the single SVR model that uses only TI and rVMF as features. The ability to predict a minute intraday Bitcoin price has a huge propensity to reduce investors’ exposure to risk and provides better assurances of annualized returns. (shrink)

Supervised machine learning has found its way into ever more areas of scientific inquiry, where the outcomes of supervised machine learning applications are almost universally classified as predictions. I argue that what researchers often present as a mere terminological particularity of the field involves the consequential transformation of tasks as diverse as classification, measurement, or image segmentation into prediction problems. Focusing on the case of machine-learning enabled poverty prediction, I explore how reframing a measurement (...) problem as a prediction task alters the primary epistemic aim of the application. Instead of measuring a property, machine learning developers conceive of their models as predicting a given measurement of this property. I argue that this _predictive reframing_ common to supervised machine learning applications is epistemically and ethically problematic, as it allows developers to externalize concerns critical to the epistemic validity and ethical implications of their model’s inferences. I further hold that the predictive reframing is not a necessary feature of supervised machine learning by offering an alternative conception of machine learning models as measurement models. An interpretation of supervised machine learning applications to measurement tasks as _automatically-calibrated model-based measurements_ internalizes questions of construct validity and ethical desirability critical to the measurement problem these applications are intended to and presented as solving. Thereby, this paper introduces an initial framework for exploring technical, historical, and philosophical research at the intersection of measurement and machine learning. (shrink)

This paper describes the application of eight statistical and machine-learning methods to derive computer models for predicting mortality of hospital patients with pneumonia from their findings at initial presentation. The eight models were each constructed based on 9847 patient cases and they were each evaluated on 4352 additional cases. The primary evaluation metric was the error in predicted survival as a function of the fraction of patients predicted to survive. This metric is useful in assessing a model’s potential (...) to assist a clinician in deciding whether to treat a given patient in the hospital or at home. We examined the error rates of the models when predicting that a given fraction of patients will survive. We examined survival fractions between 0.1 and 0.6. Over this range, each model’s predictive error rate was within 1% of the error rate of every other model. When predicting that approximately 30°K of the patients will survive, all the models have an error rate of less than 1.5%. The models are distinguished more by the number of variables and parameters that they contain than by their error rates; these differences suggest which models may be the most amenable to future implementation as paper-based guidelines. (shrink)

There remains no consensus among social scientists as to how to measure and understand forms of information deprivation such as misinformation. Machine learning and statistical analyses of information deprivation typically contain problematic operationalizations which are too often biased towards epistemic elites' conceptions that can undermine their empirical adequacy. A mature science of information deprivation should include considerable citizen involvement that is sensitive to the value-ladenness of information quality and that doing so may improve the predictive and explanatory (...) power of extant models. (shrink)

This paper argues that machine learning and epidemiology are on collision course over causation. The discipline of epidemiology lays great emphasis on causation, while ML research does not. Some epidemiologists have proposed imposing what amounts to a causal constraint on ML in epidemiology, requiring it either to engage in causal inference or restrict itself to mere projection. We whittle down the issues to the question of whether causal knowledge is necessary for underwriting predictions about the outcomes of public (...) health interventions. While there is great plausibility to the idea that it is, conviction that something is impossible does not by itself motivate a constraint to forbid trying. We disambiguate the possible motivations for such a constraint into definitional, metaphysical, epistemological, and pragmatic considerations and argue that “Proceed with caution” is the outcome of each. We then argue that there are positive reasons to proceed, albeit cautiously. Causal inference enforces existing classification schema prior to the testing of associational claims, but associations and classification schema are more plausibly discovered in a back-and-forth process of gaining reflective equilibrium. ML instantiates this kind of process, we argue, and thus offers the welcome prospect of uncovering meaningful new concepts in epidemiology and public health—provided it is not causally constrained. (shrink)

Prediction-based decisions, which are often made by utilizing the tools of machine learning, influence nearly all facets of modern life. Ethical concerns about this widespread practice have given rise to the field of fair machine learning and a number of fairness measures, mathematically precise definitions of fairness that purport to determine whether a given prediction-based decision system is fair. Following Reuben Binns (2017), we take ‘fairness’ in this context to be a placeholder for a variety of (...) normative egalitarian considerations. We explore a few fairness measures to suss out their egalitarian roots and evaluate them, both as formalizations of egalitarian ideas and as assertions of what fairness demands of predictive systems. We pay special attention to a recent and popular fairness measure, counterfactual fairness, which holds that a prediction about an individual is fair if it is the same in the actual world and any counterfactual world where the individual belongs to a different demographic group (cf. Kusner et al. (2018)). (shrink)

Knowing the level of quality from which the context is no longer valuable in a Context-Aware Data Mining (CADM) system is an important information. The main goal of this research is to study the variations of the predictions in case of different levels of noise and missing context data in practical scenarios for predicting soil moisture. The research has been performed on two locations from the Transylvanian Plain, Romania and two locations from Canada. The values predicted for the soil (...) moisture were compared in mixed scenarios that vary the quantity of noise and missing context data. The studied behavior was performed using Deep Learning, Decision Tree and Gradient Boosted Tree machine learning algorithms. It has been shown that when using the air temperature as context for predicting soil moisture, variations of noise and missing data do not influence the results proportionally with the levels of noise and missing data applied. Also, Gradient Boosted Tree algorithm proves to be the best algorithm from the ones studied, to be considered when predicting soil moisture with the CADM approach. (shrink)

Predictions concerning postindustrial society include that of workers serving as machine monitors. That concept is explored in this article in respect to faculty in higher education serving as monitors of computers that are executing instructional programs. Questions concerning changes in faculty roles and the control of educational quality are addressed. Alfred Bork’s vision of asynchronous learning systems is elaborated, and that alternative is compared to the concept of machine monitoring. It is concluded that monitoring in higher (...) education is not likely unless student demand for distance learning is great, but in that case, monitoring would be superior to proposals for automated asynchronous learning systems. (shrink)

Autism spectrum disorder is an inherited long-living and neurological disorder that starts in the early age of childhood with complicated causes. Autism spectrum disorder can lead to mental disorders such as anxiety, miscommunication, and limited repetitive interest. If the autism spectrum disorder is detected in the early childhood, it will be very beneficial for children to enhance their mental health level. In this study, different machine and deep learning algorithms were applied to classify the severity of autism spectrum (...) disorder. Moreover, different optimization techniques were employed to enhance the performance. The deep neural network performed better when compared with other approaches. (shrink)

In order to better improve the teaching quality of university teachers, an effective method should be adopted for evaluation and analysis. This work studied the machine learning algorithms and selected the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to evaluate teaching quality. First, the principles of selecting evaluation indexes were briefly introduced, and 16 evaluation indexes were selected from different aspects. Then, the SVM algorithm was used for evaluation. A genetic algorithm (GA)-SVM algorithm was designed and experimentally (...) analyzed. It was found that the training time and testing time of the GA-SVM algorithm were 23.21 and 7.25 ms, both of which were shorter than the SVM algorithm. In the evaluation of teaching quality, the evaluation value of the GA-SVM algorithm was closer to the actual value, indicating that the evaluation result was more accurate. The average accuracy of the GA-SVM algorithm was 11.64% higher than that of the SVM algorithm (98.36 vs 86.72%). The experimental results verify that the GA-SVM algorithm can have a good application in evaluating and analyzing teaching quality in universities with its advantages in efficiency and accuracy. (shrink)

Creating agents that proficiently interact with people is critical for many applications. Towards creating these agents, models are needed that effectively predict people's decisions in a variety of problems. To date, two approaches have been suggested to generally describe people's decision behavior. One approach creates a-priori predictions about people's behavior, either based on theoretical rational behavior or based on psychological models, including bounded rationality. A second type of approach focuses on creating models based exclusively on observations of people's behavior. At (...) the forefront of these types of methods are various machine learning algorithms. This paper explores how these two approaches can be compared and combined in different types of domains. In relatively simple domains, both psychological models and machine learning yield clear prediction models with nearly identical results. In more complex domains, the exact action predicted by psychological models is not even clear, and machine learning models are even less accurate. Nonetheless, we present a novel approach of creating hybrid methods that incorporate features from psychological models in conjunction with machine learning in order to create significantly improved models for predicting people's decisions. To demonstrate these claims, we present an overview of previous and new results, taken from representative domains ranging from a relatively simple optimization problem and complex domains such as negotiation and coordination without communication. (shrink)

Machine learning algorithms may radically improve our ability to diagnose and treat disease. For moral, legal, and scientific reasons, it is essential that doctors and patients be able to understand and explain the predictions of these models. Scalable, customisable, and ethical solutions can be achieved by working together with relevant stakeholders, including patients, data scientists, and policy makers.

Just as humans can draw conclusions responsibly or irresponsibly, so too can computers. Machine learning systems that have been trained on data sets that include irresponsible judgments are likely to yield irresponsible predictions as outputs. In this paper I focus on a particular kind of inference a computer system might make: identification of the intentions with which a person acted on the basis of photographic evidence. Such inferences are liable to be morally objectionable, because of a way in (...) which they are presumptuous. After elaborating this moral concern, I explore the possibility that carefully procuring the training data for image recognition systems could ensure that the systems avoid the problem. The lesson of this paper extends beyond just the particular case of image recognition systems and the challenge of responsibly identifying a person’s intentions. Reflection on this particular case demonstrates the importance (as well as the difficulty) of evaluating machine learning systems and their training data from the standpoint of moral considerations that are not encompassed by ordinary assessments of predictive accuracy. (shrink)

Recent controversies about the level of replicability of behavioral research analyzed using statistical inference have cast interest in developing more efficient techniques for analyzing the results of psychological experiments. Here we claim that complementing the analytical workflow of psychological experiments with Machine Learning-based analysis will both maximize accuracy and minimize replicability issues. As compared to statistical inference, ML analysis of experimental data is model agnostic and primarily focused on prediction rather than inference. We also highlight some potential pitfalls (...) resulting from adoption of Machine Learning based experiment analysis. If not properly used it can lead to over-optimistic accuracy estimates similarly observed using statistical inference. Remedies to such pitfalls are also presented such and building model based on cross validation and the use of ensemble models. ML models are typically regarded as black boxes and we will discuss strategies aimed at rendering more transparent the predictions. (shrink)

There has been an increased focus within the AI ethics literature on questions of power, reflected in the ideal of accountability supported by many Responsible AI guidelines. While this recent debate points towards the power asymmetry between those who shape AI systems and those affected by them, the literature lacks normative grounding and misses conceptual clarity on how these power dynamics take shape. In this paper, I develop a workable conceptualization of said power dynamics according to Cristiano Castelfranchi’s conceptual framework (...) of power and argue that end-users depend on a system’s developers and users, because end-users rely on these systems to satisfy their goals, constituting a power asymmetry between developers, users and end-users. I ground my analysis in the neo-republican moral wrong of domination, drawing attention to legitimacy concerns of the power-dependence relation following from the current lack of accountability mechanisms. I illustrate my claims on the basis of a risk-prediction machine learning system, and propose institutional and project-specific solutions to mitigate domination. (shrink)

Simple idealized models seem to provide more understanding than opaque, complex, and hyper-realistic models. However, an increasing number of scientists are going in the opposite direction by utilizing opaque machine learning models to make predictions and draw inferences, suggesting that scientists are opting for models that have less potential for understanding. Are scientists trading understanding for some other epistemic or pragmatic good when they choose a machine learning model? Or are the assumptions behind why minimal models (...) provide understanding misguided? In this paper, using the case of deep neural networks, I argue that it is not the complexity or black box nature of a model that limits how much understanding the model provides. Instead, it is a lack of scientific and empirical evidence supporting the link that connects a model to the target phenomenon that primarily prohibits understanding. (shrink)

Objectives: Machine learning (ML) has the potential to facilitate “continual learning” in medicine, in which an ML system continues to evolve in response to exposure to new data over time, even after being deployed in a clinical setting. In this article, we provide a tutorial on the range of ethical issues raised by the use of such “adaptive” ML systems in medicine that have, thus far, been neglected in the literature. -/- Target audience: The target audiences for (...) this tutorial are the developers of ML AI systems, healthcare regulators, the broader medical informatics community, and practicing clinicians. -/- Scope: Discussions of adaptive ML systems to date have overlooked the distinction between 2 sorts of variance that such systems may exhibit—diachronic evolution (change over time) and synchronic variation (difference between cotemporaneous instantiations of the algorithm at different sites)—and underestimated the significance of the latter. We highlight the challenges that diachronic evolution and synchronic variation present for the quality of patient care, informed consent, and equity, and discuss the complex ethical trade-offs involved in the design of such systems. (shrink)

There are a lot of research studies that look at "fake news" from an Arabic online source, but they don't look at what makes those fake news spread. The threat grows, and at some point, it gets out of hand. That's why this paper is trying to figure out how to predict the features that make Arabic online fake news spread. It's using Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Random forest of Machine Learning to do this. Online news stories (...) that were made up were used. They are found by using Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency. The best partition for testing and validating the prediction was chosen at random and used in the analysis. So, all three machine learning classifications for predicting fake news in Arabic online were done. The results of the experiment show that Random Forest Classifier outperformed the other two algorithms. It had the best TF-IDF with an accuracy of 86 percent. Naive Bayes had an accuracy rate of 84%, and Logistic Regression had an accuracy rate of 85%, so they all did well. As such, the model shows that the features in TF-IDF are the most essential point about the content of an online Arabic fake news. (shrink)

Recent scholarship in philosophy of science and technology has shown that scientific and technological decision making are laden with values, including values of a social, political, and/or ethical character. This paper examines the role of value judgments in the design of machine-learning systems generally and in recidivism-prediction algorithms specifically. Drawing on work on inductive and epistemic risk, the paper argues that ML systems are value laden in ways similar to human decision making, because the development and design of (...) ML systems requires human decisions that involve tradeoffs that reflect values. In many cases, these decisions have significant—and, in some cases, disparate—downstream impacts on human lives. After examining an influential court decision regarding the use of proprietary recidivism-prediction algorithms in criminal sentencing, Wisconsin v. Loomis, the paper provides three recommendations for the use of ML in penal systems. (shrink)

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters in the world that affect all aspects of life, including human beings, agriculture, industry, and education. Research for developing models of flood predictions has been ongoing for the past few years. These models are proposed and built-in proportion for risk reduction, policy proposition, loss of human lives, and property damages associated with floods. However, flood status prediction is a complex process and demands extensive analyses on the factors leading to the occurrence (...) of flooding. Consequently, this research proposes an Internet of Things-based flood status prediction (IoT-FSP) model that is used to facilitate the prediction of the rivers flood situation. The IoT-FSP model applies the Internet of Things architecture to facilitate the flood data acquisition process and three machine learning (ML) algorithms, which are Decision Tree (DT), Decision Jungle, and Random Forest, for the flood prediction process. The IoT-FSP model is implemented in MATLAB and Simulink as development platforms. The results show that the IoT-FSP model successfully performs the data acquisition and prediction tasks and achieves an average accuracy of 85.72% for the three-fold cross-validation results. The research finding shows that the DT scores the highest accuracy of 93.22%, precision of 92.85, and recall of 92.81 among the three ML algorithms. The ability of the ML algorithm to handle multivariate outputs of 13 different flood textual statuses provides the means of manifesting explainable artificial intelligence and enables the IoT-FSP model to act as an early warning and flood monitoring system. (shrink)

On the background of voluntary assurances made by corporations in line with the assertions in their corporate social responsibility disclosures, we investigate which types of firms will obtain an independent certification of their corporate social responsibility disclosures. The study is based on firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) from 2015 to 2019. Deviating from traditional regression approaches, we employ machine learning techniques and show that machine learning techniques obtain superior performance compared to traditional logistic (...) regression at predicting the likelihood of corporate social responsibility assurance by a corporation. The result also shows that large firms with high CSR score, independent board, highly leveraged and belonging to finance industry are the most likely to assure their CSR disclosures. (shrink)

The workshop “Machine Learning: Prediction Without Explanation?” brought together philosophers of science and scholars from various fields who study and employ Machine Learning (ML) techniques, in order to discuss the changing face of science in the light of ML's constantly growing use. One major focus of the workshop was on the impact of ML on the concept and value of scientific explanation. One may speculate whether ML’s increased use in science exemplifies a paradigmatic turn towards mere (...) pattern recognition and prediction and away from science’s traditional aim of explanation. In contrast, certain conceptions of explanation, such as statistical explanation, could turn out to fit well with the achievements of present-day ML and concede an explanatory value to these achievements after all. It is an open question how to explain ML successes themselves, and this question was in the focus of several talks in the workshop. Based on the topics raised, we will discuss the talks’ contents in more detail as organized into (i) practitioners’ perspectives, (ii) explanations from ML, (iii) explanations of ML, (iv) societal implications, and (v) global and historical perspectives. (shrink)

Machine learning (ML) systems play an increasingly relevant role in medicine and healthcare. As their applications move ever closer to patient care and cure in clinical settings, ethical concerns about the responsibility of their use come to the fore. I analyse an aspect of responsible ML use that bears not only an ethical but also a significant epistemic dimension. I focus on ML systems’ role in mediating patient–physician relations. I thereby consider how ML systems may silence patients’ voices (...) and relativise the credibility of their opinions, which undermines their overall credibility status without valid moral and epistemic justification. More specifically, I argue that withholding credibilitydue tohow ML systems operate can be particularly harmful to patients and, apart from adverse outcomes, qualifies as a form of testimonial injustice. I make my case for testimonial injustice in medical ML by considering ML systems currently used in the USA to predict patients’ risk of misusing opioids (automated Prediction Drug Monitoring Programmes, PDMPs for short). I argue that the locus of testimonial injustice in ML-mediated medical encounters is found in the fact that these systems are treated asmarkers of trustworthinesson which patients’ credibility is assessed. I further show how ML-based PDMPs exacerbate and further propagate social inequalities at the expense of vulnerable social groups. (shrink)

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multi-national data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy (...) of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution—individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar was found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-negligible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic. (shrink)

Healthcare professionals decide wisely about personalized medicine, treatment plans, and resource allocation by utilizing big data analytics and machine learning. To guarantee that algorithmic recommendations are impartial and fair, however, ethical issues relating to prejudice and data privacy must be taken into account. Big data analytics and machine learning have a great potential to disrupt healthcare, and as these technologies continue to evolve, new opportunities to reform healthcare and enhance patient outcomes may arise. In order to (...) investigate the patient’s outcomes with empirical evidence, this research was conducted using an online survey to incorporate healthcare professionals, patient’s reviews, and clinical staff. The data were analyzed using SmartPLS 4.0 to predict the structural model. The findings revealed a direct impact as positive influence of using machine learning on healthcare performance and patient outcomes through big data analytics. Moreover, it is evident that this can lead to personalized treatment plans, early interventions, and improved patient outcomes. Additionally, big data analytics can help healthcare providers optimize resource allocation, improve operational efficiency, and reduce costs. The impact of big data analytics on patient outcome and healthcare performance is expected to continue to grow, making it an important area for investment and research. (shrink)

Fall prediction using machine learning has become one of the most fruitful and socially relevant applications of computer vision in gerontological research. Since its inception in the early 2000s, this subfield has proliferated into a robust body of research underpinned by various machine learning algorithms (including neural networks, support vector machines, and decision trees) as well as statistical modeling approaches (Markov chains, Gaussian mixture models, and hidden Markov models). Furthermore, some advancements have been translated into commercial (...) and clinical practice, with companies in various stages of development capitalizing on the aging population to develop new commercially available products. Yet despite the marvel of modern machine learning-enabled fall prediction, little research has been conducted to shed light on the security and privacy concerns that such systems pose for older adults. The present study employs an interdisciplinary lens in examining privacy issues associated with machine learning fall prediction and exploring the implications of these models in elderly care and the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT). Ultimately, a justice-informed set of best practices rooted in social geroscience is suggested to help fall prediction researchers and companies continue to advance the field while preserving elderly privacy and autonomy. (shrink)

As scientists start to adopt machine learning (ML) as one research tool, the security of ML and the knowledge generated become a concern. In this paper, I explain how supervised ML can be improved with better data ontology, or the way we make categories and turn information into data. More specifically, we should design data ontology in such a way that is consistent with the knowledge that we have about the target phenomenon so that such ontology can help (...) us make the inductive leap. I do so by thinking through a thought experiment, Goodman’s New Riddle of Induction (Fact, fiction, and forecast, Harvard University Press, 1955). Goodman’s riddle helps flesh out three problems of induction: (1) the problem of equal goodies, that there are often too many equally good inductive results given the same data; (2) the problem of diverging performance, that these equally good results can give opposite predictions in the future; and (3) the problem of mediocrity, that when averaged across all equally possible datasets and tasks, no inductive algorithm outperforms any other. I show that all these three problems are manifested as real obstacles in ML practice, namely, the Rashomon effect (Breiman in Stat Sci 16(3):199–231, 2001), the problem of underspecification (D’Amour et al. in J Mach Learn Res, 2020, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2011.03395 ), and the No Free Lunch theorem (Wolpert in Neural Comput 8(7):1341–90, 1996, https://doi.org/10.1162/neco.1996.8.7.1341 ). Lastly, I argue that proper data ontology can help mitigate these problems and I demonstrate how using concrete examples from climate science. This research highlights the links between philosophers’ discussions of induction and implications in ML practice. (shrink)

Increasing student involvement in classes has always been a challenge for teachers and school managers. In online learning, some interactivity mechanisms like quizzes are increasingly used to engage students during classes and tasks. However, there is a high demand for tools that evaluate the efficiency of these mechanisms. In order to distinguish between high and low levels of engagement in tasks, it is possible to monitor brain activity through functional near-infrared spectroscopy. The main advantages of this technique are portability, (...) low cost, and a comfortable way for students to concentrate and perform their tasks. This setup provides more natural conditions for the experiments if compared to the other acquisition tools. In this study, we investigated levels of task involvement through the identification of correct and wrong answers of typical quizzes used in virtual environments. We collected data from the prefrontal cortex region of 18 students while watching a video lecture. This data was modeled with supervised learning algorithms. We used random forests and penalized logistic regression to classify correct answers as a function of oxyhemoglobin and deoxyhemoglobin concentration. These models identify which regions best predict student performance. The random forest and penalized logistic regression obtained, respectively, 0.67 and 0.65 area of the ROC curve. Both models indicate that channels F4-F6 and AF3-AFz are the most relevant for the prediction. The statistical significance of these models was confirmed through cross-validation and a permutation test. This methodology can be useful to better understand the teaching and learning processes in a video lecture and also provide improvements in the methodologies used in order to better adapt the presentation content. (shrink)

Aesthetic experience is original, dynamic and ever-changing. This article covers three research questions (RQs) concerning how immersive installation artworks can elicit emotions that may contribute to their popularity. Based on Yayoi Kusama’s and Peter Kogler’s kaleidoscopic rooms, this study aims to predict the emotions of visitors of immersive installation art based on their Twitter activity. As indicators, we employed the total number of likes, comments, retweets, followers, followings, the average of tweets per user, and emotional response. According to our evaluation (...) of emotions, panic obtained the highest scores. Furthermore, compared to traditional machine learning algorithms, Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT) Automated Machine Learning used in this research yielded slightly lower performance. We forecast that our findings will stimulate future research in the fields of data analysis, cultural heritage management and marketing, aesthetics and cultural analytics. (shrink)