The analysis of the nexus between the value of information and risk is examined for sequential decisions with different degrees of future commitment, as e.g. environmental decisions. We find that in the linear case a riskier environment in general will increase the value of information. This result will be extended in the separable case to decreasing and increasing stochastic returns to scale. An example shows the ambiguity in the general case.

Looks into evaluation of information provision probability from different sources, based on use of linguistic variables. Formation of functions appurtenant for its unclear variables provides for adoption of decisions by the decision maker, in conditions of nonprobabilistic equivocation. The development of market relations in Ukraine increases the independence and responsibility of enterprises in justifying and making management decisions that ensure their effective, competitive activities. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the condition of economic facilities can (...) be described and determined by the decision-maker, in the presence of the necessary information. The confidence of the decision-maker in the information received is different and the decisions made have a correspondingly different level of information risk. It is important to substantiate the procedure for assessing the numerical extent of information risk in decision-making based on the information obtained in conditions of uncertainty. The use of a linguistic variable in the processing of expert data presented in the form of a matrix of binary relations of values of the membership function, which allowed to move to further processing of knowledge to support decision-making in the management of industrial, commercial, financial and other activities. As a mathematical model for estimating the numerical measure of information risk when making decisions based on the information obtained in conditions of non-stochastic uncertainty, a model has been developed to model natural language uncertainties, which differs from existing ones by formalizing knowledge taking into account uncertainty of input information. Making such a clear decision in a fuzzy environment has appropriate values of effectiveness and risk. The paper proposes all the functions and accessories of indicators of both quantitative nature and qualitative nature to bring their values in the field of definition to one scale. Then the indicator of the effectiveness of decision-making will be a measure of the clarity of the cross-section of fuzzy subsets, which correspond to the introduced indicators of information risk. The condition of economic facilities can be described and determined by the decision-maker, if the necessary information is available. Decision-making on thenumerical measure of information risk must be determined by a set of basic indicators, which can be both quantitative and qualitative in nature. Predictive values of indicators should be determined in conditions of nonstochastic uncertainty. In this case, the indicators of a quantitative nature can be determined by fuzzy triangular numbers, which implement a high level of confidence in the subjective judgments of experts. Indicators of qualitative nature should be presented in linguistic variables. The values of the indicators of qualitative nature that are predicted must be considered for all fuzzy variable terms-sets of linguistic variables introduced into consideration. For any fuzzy variable, the introduction to the consideration of a clear set of values as carriers of the α-level of its membership function allows to reduce to a single interpretation of the predicted values of indicators of quantitative and qualitative nature in terms of non-stochastic uncertainty. (shrink)

We discuss the role of the notion of information in the description of physical reality. We consider theories for which dynamics is linear with respect to stochastic mixing. We point out that the no-cloning and no-deleting principles emerge in any such theory, if law of conservation of information is valid, and two copies contain more information than one copy. We then describe the quantum case from this point of view.

Following up on previous results by Falmagne, this paper investigates possible mechanisms explaining how preference relations are created and how they evolve over time. We postulate a preference relation which is initially empty and becomes increasingly intricate under the influence of a random environment delivering discrete tokens of information concerning the alternatives. The framework is that of a class of real-time stochastic processes having interlinked Markov and Poisson components. Specifically, the occurence of the tokens is governed by a Poisson (...) process, while the succession of preference relations is a Markov process. In an example case, the preference relations are the various possible semiorders on the set of alternatives. Asymptotic results are obtained in the form of the limit probabilities of any semiorder. The arguments extend to a much more general situation including interval orders, biorders and partial orders. The results provide (up to a small number of parameters) complete quantitative predictions for panel data of a standard type, in which the same sample of subjects has been asked to compare the alternatives a number of times. (shrink)

Description courte (Électre, 2019) : Une étude d'un des principaux axes de réflexion du philosophe des sciences et de la nature Raymond Ruyer (1902-1987). À la lumière des découvertes de l'embryogenèse et en s'appuyant par ailleurs sur la théorie de l'information, il proposa une interprétation des concepts unificateurs de la cybernétique mécaniste. -/- Short Descriptor (Electre 2019): A study of one of the main axes of reflection of the French philosopher of science and of nature Raymond Ruyer (1902-1987). Relying (...) on the discoveries about embryogenesis, and also with the use of information theory, Ruyer proposed an interpretation of the main unifying concepts of mechanistic cybernetics. -/- Cet ouvrage propose une étude fouillée d'un des principaux axes de réflexion du philosophe des sciences et de la nature français Raymond Ruyer (1902–1987) : la cybernétique. Après avoir proposé une philosophie structuraliste, Ruyer la modifia à la lumière des découvertes de l'embryogenèse, puis il proposa une interprétation des concepts unificateurs de la cybernétique mécaniste. Réfléchissant sur cette dernière et sur la théorie de l'information, en particulier sur l'origine de l'information, il défendit que cette cybernétique n'était qu'une lecture inversée de la vraie cybernétique, qui nous donnerait de lire dans l'expérience même les traces du pouvoir morphogénétique, appréhendé comme un champ axiologique. Dans un texte résumant son propre parcours, Ruyer affirma finalement que la critique de la théorie de l'information « peut donner […] l'espoir d'aboutir à quelque chose comme une nouvelle théologie. » Les idées directrices de Ruyer sont tout particulièrement contextualisées ici à partir de la question du développement des formes en biologie, et de celles de la génétique, de la genèse stochastique de l'ordre, et de l'identification mentale ou physique de l'information. Il se termine en départageant ce qui est théologique et axiologique dans ce projet de métaphysique qui, bien que resté inachevé, n'en représente pas moins le plus impressionnant conçu en France au siècle dernier. – This book offers an in-depth study of one of the main axes in the reflection of French philosopher of science and nature Raymond Ruyer. In a text summarising his own development, Ruyer stated about the philosophical critique of information theory that it "is what can give the most long-lasting hope of getting to something like a new theology." After propounding a structuralist philosophy, and distinguishing between form and structure, to then modify it in the light of discoveries in embryogenesis, Ruyer offered a re-evaluation of the unifying concepts of mechanistic cybernetics. Thinking about it and about information theory, he defended the idea that this cybernetics was in reality an inverted reading of the real one, which would allow us to read in experience itself traces of the morphogenetic power, apprehended as the axiological field. On some transversal points, the development of forms in biology and genetics, the stochastic genesis of order, the identification of information with either psychological and mental, or physical reality, behaviour, and the access to meaning, this work exposes the main ideas of Ruyer while situating them in the context of the breadth of others' contributions. It ends by determining what is theological and axiological in this project for a metaphysics which, although unfinished, is nevertheless the most impressive effort done in France in the last century. – Available on i6doc dot com (ISBN 978-2-930517-56-8 ; pdf 978-2-930517-57-5). (shrink)

Information processing in neural systems can be described and analyzed at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Generally, information at lower levels is more fine-grained but can be coarse-grained at higher levels. However, only information processed at specific scales of coarse-graining appears to be available for conscious awareness. We do not have direct experience of information available at the scale of individual neurons, which is noisy and highly stochastic. Neither do we have experience of more macro-scale interactions, such as (...) interpersonal communications. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that conscious experiences co-vary with information encoded in coarse-grained neural states such as the firing pattern of a population of neurons. In this article, we introduce a new informational theory of consciousness: Information Closure Theory of Consciousness (ICT). We hypothesize that conscious processes are processes which form non-trivial informational closure (NTIC) with respect to the environment at certain coarse-grained scales. This hypothesis implies that conscious experience is confined due to informational closure from conscious processing to other coarse-grained scales. Information Closure Theory of Consciousness (ICT) proposes new quantitative definitions of both conscious content and conscious level. With the parsimonious definitions and a hypothesize, ICT provides explanations and predictions of various phenomena associated with consciousness. The implications of ICT naturally reconcile issues in many existing theories of consciousness and provides explanations for many of our intuitions about consciousness. Most importantly, ICT demonstrates that information can be the common language between consciousness and physical reality. (shrink)

Thresholds for disease extinction provide essential information for the prevention and control of diseases. In this paper, a stochastic epidemic model, a continuous-time Markov chain, for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus in birds is developed based on the assumptions of its analogous deterministic model. The branching process is applied to derive the extinction threshold for the stochastic model and conditions for disease extinction or persistence. The probability of disease extinction computed from the branching process is shown to (...) be in good agreement with the probability approximated from numerical simulations. The disease dynamics of both models are compared to ascertain the effect of demographic stochasticity on West Nile virus dynamics. Analytical and numerical results show differences in model predictions and asymptotic dynamics between stochastic and deterministic models that are crucial for the prevention of disease outbreaks. It is found that there is a high probability of disease extinction if the disease emerges from exposed mosquitoes unlike if it emerges from infectious mosquitoes and birds. Finite-time to disease extinction is estimated using sample paths and it is shown that the epidemic duration is shortest if the disease is introduced by exposed mosquitoes. (shrink)

The relevance of this topic is due to the fact that new processes of informatization of society are unfolding in the conditions of new technological breakthroughs, which requires the formation of the concept of digital economy and digital management as components of the creation of an ecologically balanced and socially oriented economy, which aims at increasing the well-being of the population and improving the ecology of the population. The purpose of the study is to conceptualize the digital economy and digital (...) management in the face of new technological breakthroughs as a factor in the emergence of an environmentally balanced and socially-oriented economy, as one of the biggest challenges facing developed countries is sustainable unemployment, growing property inequality, rapid climate change and stochasticity of information. An analysis of the latest research and publications that address this issue. In the works of Maxton Graham and Randers Joergen “In search of prosperity. Managing Economic Development for Reducing Unemployment and Climate Change ”. In the second half of the twentieth century evidence has emerged of the exhaustion of global natural resources and the limited assimilation capabilities of the planetary ecosystem. The revolutionary work of the new vision was the first report by the Roman Club "Limits of Growth" by Donnelly and Dennis Meadows and Jorgen Randers, which forced them to reflect on the physical limits of human growth. “The limits of growth. 30 Years Later ”is an updated study based on new data on trends in the development of human civilization, improvements in the model and methodology of system dynamics and modern computer capabilities. Scientific novelty of the research is the identification of problems of interaction of the person, society, information in the conditions of new technological breakthroughs and conditions of overcoming the problems of stochastic information that contribute to the formation of a new concept of digital economy and digital management. Research results. The conditions of formation of the concept of digital economy and digital management in the conditions of new technological breakthroughs, on the basis of which the creation of a digital society is revealed. A new mission of digital economy and digital management is revealed, which should change the dominant essence of social philosophy, which underlies the great role of scientific and technological achievements that transform our reality. Conclusion - The formation of the concept of digital economy and digital management challenges many economic and managerial notions of new technological breakthroughs that underpin the "boundaries of growth" and the formation of digital society. (shrink)

A new working hypothesis of sleep-wake cycle mechanisms is proposed, based on ontogeny and functional/anatomic compression of two stochastic neuronal models of information coding that complement each other in a key/lock fashion: the axonal arbor patterns (AAP – “hardware”) and the neuronal spike interval inequality patterns (SIIP – “software”). [Hobson et al.; Nielsen; Revonsuo; Solms; Vertes & Eastman].

Objective: This study aimed to investigate whether galvanic vestibular stimulation with stochastic noise modulates the body sway and muscle activity of the lower limbs, depending on visual and somatosensory information from the foot using rubber-foam.Methods: Seventeen healthy young adults participated in the study. Each subject maintained an upright standing position on a force plate with/without rubber-foam, with their eyes open/closed, to measure the position of their foot center of pressure. Thirty minutes after baseline measurements under four possible conditions performed (...) without nGVS, the stimulation trials were conducted under the same conditions in random order, which were then repeated a week or more later. The total center of pressure path length movement and COP movement velocity in the mediolateral and anteroposterior directions were recorded for 30 s during nGVS. Furthermore, electromyography activity of the right tibial anterior muscle and soleus muscle was recorded for the same time and analyzed.Results: Three-way analysis of variance and post-hoc multiple comparison revealed a significant increment in COP-related parameters by nGVS, and a significant increment in soleus muscle activity on rubber. There was no significant effect of eye condition on any parameter.Conclusions: During nGVS, body sway and muscle activity in the lower limb may be increased depending not on the visual condition, but on the foot somatosensory condition. (shrink)

In this work we study the behavior of a time discrete multiregional stochastic model for a population structured in age classes and spread out in different spatial patches between which individuals can migrate. The dynamics of the population is controlled both by reproduction-survival and by migration. These processes take place at different time scales in the sense of the latter being much faster than the former. We incorporate the effect of demographic stochasticity into the population, which results in both (...) dynamics being modelled by multitype Bienaymé–Galton–Watson branching processes. We present a multitype global model that incorporates the effect of both processes and, making use of the existence of different time scales for demography and migration, build a reduced model in which the variables correspond to the total population in each age class. We extend previous results that relate the behavior of the original and the reduced model showing that, given a large enough separation of time scales between demography and migration, we can obtain information about the behavior of the multitype global model through the study of the simpler reduced model. We concentrate on the case where the two systems are supercritical and therefore the expected number of individuals grows to infinity, and show that we can approximate the asymptotic structure of the population vector and the asymptotic population size of the original system through the study of the reduced model. (shrink)

A set of qubit channels has a classical representation when it is isomorphic to the convex closure of a group of classical channels. From Crowder and Martin (Proceedings of Quantum Physics and Logic, Electronic Notes in Theoretical Computer Science, 2009), we know that up to isomorphism there are five such sets, each corresponding to either a subgroup of the alternating group on four letters, or a subgroup of the symmetric group on three letters. In this paper, we show that the (...) classical representation of a qubit channel also carries its information theoretic data—in particular, both the Holevo capacity and the scope of a unital qubit channel can be completely calculated from a systematically determined classical channel. (shrink)

The comparison of growth, whether it is between different strains or under different growth conditions, is a classic microbiological technique that can provide genetic, epigenetic, cell biological, and chemical biological information depending on how the assay is used. When employing solid growth media, this technique is limited by being largely qualitative and low throughput. Collecting data in the form of growth curves, especially automated data collection in multi‐well plates, circumvents these issues. However, the growth curves themselves are subject to (...) stochastic variation in several variables, most notably the length of the lag phase, the doubling rate, and the maximum expansion of the culture. Thus, growth curves are indicative of trends but cannot always be conveniently averaged and statistically compared. Here, we summarize a simple method to compile growth curve data into a quantitative format that is amenable to statistical comparisons and easy to graph and display. (shrink)

We describe a recent approach for distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic sources of variability, focusing on the mammalian cell cycle. Variability between cells is often attributed to stochastic noise, although it may be generated by deterministic components. Interestingly, lineage information can be used to distinguish between variability and determinism. Analysis of correlations within a lineage of the mammalian cell cycle duration revealed its deterministic nature. Here, we discuss the sources of such variability and the possibility that the underlying deterministic (...) process is due to the circadian clock. Finally, we discuss the “kicked cell cycle” model and its implication on the study of the cell cycle in healthy and cancerous tissues. (shrink)

The article proposes an approach to monitoring the efficiency of consumption of energy resources in technological systems, which is based on observing the precedents of stationary energy consumption. This approach allows us to adapt to the local conditions of the technological system and to detect in a timely manner any disturbances of the technological process that lead to unexpected energy losses. The peculiarity of energy monitoring based on observing and fixing the precedents of stationary conditions of energy consumption consists of (...) the formation of precedent images in the form of stochastic estimates of factors of influence on energy consumption and subsequent processing by methods of artificial intelligence. (shrink)

With the rapid development of sensor technology for automated driving applications, the fusion, analysis, and application of multimodal data have become the main focus of different scenarios, especially in the development of mobile edge computing technology that provides more efficient algorithms for realizing the various application scenarios. In the present paper, the vehicle status and operation data were acquired by vehicle-borne and roadside units of electronic registration identification of motor vehicles. In addition, a motion model and an identification system for (...) the single-vehicle lane-change process were established by mobile edge computing and self-organizing feature mapping. Two scenarios were modeled and tested: lane change with no vehicles in the target lane and lane change with vehicles in the target lane. It was found that the proposed method successfully identified the stochastic parameters in the process of driving trajectory simulation, and the standard deviation between simulation and the measured results obeyed a normal distribution. The proposed methods can provide significant practical information for improving the data processing efficiency in automated driving applications, for solving single-vehicle lane-change applications, and for promoting the formation of a closed loop from sensing to service. (shrink)

This paper contrasts two information-theoretic approaches to statistical explanation: namely, (1) an analysis, which originated in my earlier research on problems of testing stochastic models of learning, based on an entropy-like measure of expected transmitted-information (and here referred to as the Expected-Information Model), and (2) the analysis, which was proposed by James Greeno (and which is closely related to Wesley Salmon's Statistical Relevance Model), based on the information-transmitted-by-a-system. The substantial differences between these analyses can be traced (...) to the following basic difference. On Greeno's view, the essence of explanation lies in the relevance relations expressed by the conditional probabilities that relate the explanans variables to the explanandum variables; on my view, in contrast, the essence of explanation lies in theories viewed as hypothetical structures which deductively entail conditional probability distributions linking the explanans variables and the explanandum variables. The explanatory power of a stochastic theory is identified with information (regarding the values of explanandum variables) which is "absorbed from" the explanans variables. While other information which is "absorbed from" the explanandum variables (through the process of parameter estimation, for example) reflects descriptive power of the theory. I prove that Greeno's measure of transmitted information is a limiting special case of the E-I model, but that the former, unlike the latter, makes no distinction between explanatory power and descriptive power. (shrink)

Purpose.This paper presents a new method and model based on stochastic MULTIMOORA method and discuss its application to the doctor evaluation in healthcare service.Design/Methodology/Approach. In the previous studies, the number of decision group is often assumed to be small, and the different dimensions of the evaluation indexes were also less. In this paper, the authors study how to evaluate the healthcare service quality of doctors by the large group. Based on the stochastic MULTIMOORA theory, the authors use the method that (...) builds the function of the net probability, the distance between the ideal solutions, and the utility of each doctor.Findings.This paper presents a novel model to determine the optimal doctor that considers both two dimensions in the index system and balances the evaluation results of the two dimensions. The authors designed the questionnaire and conducted field survey to make the proposed method closer to the actual situation in China. Then, they determined the optimal evaluation result for the healthcare service quality of doctors.Research Limitations/Implications.In the process of practical decision-making, there are differences in intellectual literacy level, regional background, and language preference between different decision-makers. it is impossible for the method we proposed to consider the differentiation index system of decision-makers’ preference comprehensively. And this will be a further research direction.Practical Implications.The authors proposed two evaluation index dimensions and tryed to balance the evaluation results of the two dimensions as much as possible. Meanwhile, the information aggregation method based on stochastic MULTIMOORA is distinguished.Social Implications.The proposed method can be applied to the evaluation of doctors in actual healthcare service. It is helpful to improve the healthcare service quality and the hospital management level, further improve the core competition of hospitalsOriginality/Value.This paper makes up for the lack of existing studies of the large group evaluation decision in the healthcare service. A new method on the evaluation of doctors by the large group is established and applied to a healthcare management decision-making problem with Chinese characteristics in reality. (shrink)

This paper is about a support information management system for a wind power producer having an energy storage system and participating in a day-ahead electricity market. Energy storage can play not only a leading role in mitigation of the effect of uncertainty faced by a WP producer, but also allow for conversion of wind energy into electric energy to be stored and then released at favourable hours. This storage provides capability for arbitrage, allowing an increase on profit of a (...) WP producer, but must be supported by a convenient problem formulation. The formulation proposed for the support information management system is based on an approach of stochasticity written as a mixed integer linear programming problem. WP and market prices are considered as stochastic processes represented by a set of scenarios. The charging/discharging of the ESS are considered dependent on scenarios of market prices and on scenarios of WP. The effectiveness of the proposed formulation is tested by comparison of case studies using data from the Iberian Electricity Market. The comparison is in favour of the proposed consideration of stochasticity. (shrink)

The main goal of this article consists in addressing two fundamental issues of consciousness research and cognitive science, namely, the question of why declarative memory functions are inextricably linked with phenomenal awareness and the question of the physical basis of memory traces. The presented approach proposes that high-level cognitive processes involving consciousness employ a universal mechanism by means of which they access and modulate an omnipresent background field that is identified with the zero-point field (ZPF) specified by stochastic electrodynamics, a (...) branch of physics that deals with the universal principles underlying quantum systems. In addition to its known physical properties and memory capacities, the ZPF is hypothesized to be an immanently sentient medium. It is propounded that linking up to a particular field mode of the ZPF activates a particular phenomenal nuance, implying that the phase-locked coupling of a set of field modes, i.e., the formation of a so-called ZPF information state, constitutes an appropriate mechanism for the amalgamation of elementary shades of consciousness into a complex state of consciousness. Since quantum systems rest exactly on this mechanism, conscious memory processes in the brain are expected to differ from unconscious processes by the presence of the typical features of many-body quantum systems, particularly long-range coherence and attractor formation, which is supported by a huge body of empirical evidence. On this basis, the conceptual framework set out in this article paves the way for a new understanding of the brain as a write-read head interacting with the ZPF, leading to self-consistent interpretations of the neural correlates of memory formation and memory retrieval and explaining why these memory processes are closely intertwined with phenomenal awareness. In particular, the neural correlates suggest that the brain produces consciously perceived memory traces by writing sequences of information states into the ZPF and retrieves consciously experienced memory traces by reading sequences of information states from the ZPF. Using these theoretical foundations, altered states of consciousness and memory disorders can be traced back to impairments of the ZPF write-read mechanism. The mechanism should reveal itself through characteristic photon emissions, resulting in testable predictions. (shrink)

This article presents a new interpretation of the consciousness-related neuroscientific findings using the framework of stochastic electrodynamics (SED), a branch of physics that sheds light on the basic principles underlying quantum systems. It is propounded that SED supplemented by two well-founded hypotheses leads to a satisfying explanation of the neural correlates of consciousness. The theoretical framework thus defined is based on the notion that all conceivable shades of phenomenal awareness are woven into the frequency spectrum of a universal background field, (...) called zero-point field (ZPF), implying that the fundamental mechanism underlying conscious systems rests upon the access to information available in the ZPF. The body of evidence can be interpreted such that in the extroverted, stimulus-oriented operating mode the brain produces streams of consciousness by periodically writing persistent information states into the ZPF (theta cycle). In the introspective operating mode, which goes along with activations of the default mode network, the brain is receptive to the flow of ZPF information states that constitutes the record of conscious experiences, suggesting that the sense of self and the retrieval of memories is accomplished by periodically reading (filtering) persistent information states from the ZPF (alpha cycle). Moreover, the data support the conclusion that meditative practices and psychedelics detune the filter, thus preventing the instantiation of self-referential conscious states, which leads to the dissolution of the ego. Instead, the brain taps into a wider spectrum of ZPF modes and, hence, gains access to an extended phenomenal color palette, resulting in expanded consciousness. (shrink)

Although there is consensus on the fact that ionizing radiation used in radiological examinations can affect health, the stochastic nature of risk makes it difficult to anticipate and assess specific health implications for patients. The issue of radiation protection is peculiar as any dosage received in life is cumulative, the sensitivity to radiation is highly variable from one person to another, and between 20 % and 50 % of radiological examinations appear not to be necessary. In this context, one might (...) reasonably assume that information and patient consent would play an important role in regulating radiological practice. However, there is to date no clear consensus regarding the nature and content of—or even need for—consent by patients exposed to ionizing radiation. While law and ethics support the same principles for respecting the dignity of the person, in the context of radiology practice, they do not provide a consistent message to guide clinical decision-making. This article analyzes the issue of healthcare professionals’ duty to inform and obtain patient consent for radiological examinations. Considering that both law and ethics have as one of their aims to protect vulnerable populations, it is important that they begin to give greater attention to issues raised by the use of ionizing radiation in medicine. While the situation in Canada serves as a backdrop for a reflective analysis of the problem, the conclusions are pertinent for professional practice in other jurisdictions because the principles underlying health law and jurisprudence are fairly general. (shrink)

In this paper, we employ what we term as ‘the ethical dimension in political market orientation ’ framework to underline how an integration of information from relevant stakeholder groups can inform the formulation of market-oriented, yet ethical policies. Against the backdrop of India’s Look East Policy, we undertake a critical analysis of historic economic data from 1980 to 2014 in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura, often termed as the Seven Sisters because of (...) their interdependence. Our analysis of the data, using time-series methods, reveals that policy changes ensuing from the economic reforms of 1990s and the initiation of the LEP in 1991 have resulted in regional income convergence in North-Eastern India. A key contribution of our work emanates from the fact that we determine two structural breaks endogenously from long time-series data, thereby identifying three distinct policy regimes, rather than specifying exogenous breaks based on historic and theoretical conjectures. Overall, our work offers both conceptual insights into processes that enable ethical and inclusive policy making, as well as empirical evidence emerging from stochastic convergence of incomes per capita for the Seven Sister states in the North-Eastern region in India, to illustrate how regional economic inequality can be reduced through targeted market-oriented policies. (shrink)

Stochasticity and ambiguity are two aspects of uncertainty in economic problems. In the case of investments in risky assets, this uncertainty is manifested in the uncertainty of future returns. On the contrary, the complexity of the economic phenomenon itself and the ambiguity inherent in human thinking and judgment are characterized by indistinct boundaries. For the same problem, research from different perspectives can often provide us with more comprehensive and systematic information. Currently, the expected value of return or the (...) variance representing risk is still used as a rational investment criterion for both single-stage portfolios and multistage portfolios. However, in general, the greater the expected return of an investor, the greater the risk he should take. Different investors have different requirements for profitability, but regardless of their expected return, they always hope to find a set of portfolios that maximize the probability of achieving the expected rate of return. In this paper, after analyzing the development of portfolio investment theory research, we take fuzzy information processing as the entry point and systematically discuss the theory and methods of fuzzy modeling of portfolio investment decision-making from the perspective of fuzziness around the portfolio investment decision-making process. The results of the empirical analysis show that the existence of basis constraints affects investors’ investment strategies as well as their final returns, but there is a limit to the influence of basis constraints on portfolio performance, and investors can obtain optimal investment returns by selecting a reasonable number of securities to form a portfolio based on the characteristics of different securities. (shrink)

Pointillistic based super‐resolution techniques, such as photoactivated localization microscopy (PALM), involve multiple cycles of sequential activation, imaging, and precise localization of single fluorescent molecules. A super‐resolution image, having nanoscopic structural information, is then constructed by compiling all the image sequences. Because the final image resolution is determined by the localization precision of detected single molecules and their density, accurate image reconstruction requires imaging of biological structures labeled with fluorescent molecules at high density. In such image datasets, stochastic variations in (...) photon emission and intervening dark states lead to uncertainties in identification of single molecules. This, in turn, prevents the proper utilization of the wealth of information on molecular distribution and quantity. A recent strategy for overcoming this problem is pair‐correlation analysis applied to PALM. Using rigorous statistical algorithms to estimate the number of detected proteins, this approach allows the spatial organization of molecules to be quantitatively described. (shrink)

Evolution exploits the physics of non‐neural bioelectricity to implement anatomical homeostasis: a process in which embryonic patterning, remodeling, and regeneration achieve invariant anatomical outcomes despite external interventions. Linear “developmental pathways” are often inadequate explanations for dynamic large‐scale pattern regulation, even when they accurately capture relationships between molecular components. Biophysical and computational aspects of collective cell activity toward a target morphology reveal interesting aspects of causation in biology. This is critical not only for unraveling evolutionary and developmental events, but also for (...) the design of effective strategies for biomedical intervention. Bioelectrical controls of growth and form, including stochastic behavior in such circuits, highlight the need for the formulation of nuanced views of pathways, drivers of system‐level outcomes, and modularity, borrowing from concepts in related disciplines such as cybernetics, control theory, computational neuroscience, and information theory. This approach has numerous practical implications for basic research and for applications in regenerative medicine and synthetic bioengineering. (shrink)

Correlation meaning interaction for physical occurrences, the joint probability formalizes this interaction and conceptualizes a stochastic causality. Bayesian reversibility then expresses action-reaction symmetry for spacelike, und cause-effect symmetry for timelike, separations. Information-negeutropy equivalence (that is. reversibility of the twin-faced information concept) extends Mehlberg's “lawlike reversibility” and vindicates Wigner's claim that psychokinesis is reciprocal to gain in knowledge. A covariant axiomatization of probabilities as expressing physical interaction, and displaying the spacetime propagation of information, is proposed. Its correspondence (but (...) essential difference) with the quantum calculation recipe is evidenced. The unfolding paradigm of a twin-faced reality- and- representation universe is stressed, and Pauli's hints in this direction are mentioned. (shrink)

Preemption games are widely used to model patent races, innovation adoption and market entry problems. A previously neglected feature of these problems is that the agents’ states (e.g. R&D …rms’ technological improvements) are kept secret and stochastically change over time. We fully characterize equilibrium in preemption games where private information evolves according to Poisson processes, and provide a strategic rationale for the common wisdom that ‘big things happen fast.’ In the context of patent races we surprisingly …nd that strengthening (...) patent rights need not increase innovation disclosure. Furthermore, we clarify a basic welfare tradeo¤ between duplication costs and preemption: the former likely take place in early stages of the race, and preemption in later stages. (shrink)

Residual useful lifetime prediction plays a key role of failure prediction and health management in equipment. Aiming at the problems of residual life prediction without comprehensively considering multistage and individual differences in equipment performance degradation at present, we explore a prediction model that can fit the multistage random performance degradation. Degradation modeling is based on the random Wiener process. Moreover, according to the degradation monitoring data of the same batch of equipment, we apply the expectation maximization algorithm to estimate the (...) prior distribution of the model. The real-time remaining life distribution of the equipment is acquired by merging prior information of real-time degradation data and historical degradation monitoring data. The accuracy of the proposed model is demonstrated by analyzing a practical case of metalized film capacitors, and the result shows that a better RUL estimation accuracy can be provided by our model compared with existing models. (shrink)

Non-compensatory aggregation rules are applied in a variety of problems such as voting theory, multi-criteria analysis, composite indicators, web ranking algorithms and so on. A major open problem is the fact that non-compensability implies the analytical cost of loosing all available information about intensity of preference, i.e. if some variables are measured on interval or ratio scales, they have to be treated as measured on an ordinal scale. Here this problem has been tackled in its most general formulation, that (...) is when mixed measurement scales (interval, ratio and ordinal) are used and both stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties are present. Objectives of this article are first to present a comprehensive review of useful solutions already proposed in the literature and second to advance the state of the art mainly in the theoretical guarantee that weights have the meaning of importance coefficients and they can be summarized in a voting matrix. This is a key result for using non-compensatory Condorcet consistent rules. A proof on the probability of existence of ties in the voting matrix is also developed. (shrink)

Recently, several philosophers and physicists have increasingly noticed the hegemony of unitarity in the black hole information loss discourse and are challenging its legitimacy in the face of the measurement problem. They proclaim that embracing non-unitarity solves two paradoxes for the price of one. Though I share their distaste over the philosophical bias, I disagree with their strategy of still privileging certain interpretations of quantum theory. I argue that information-restoring solutions can be interpretation-neutral because the manifestation of non-unitarity (...) in Hawking's original derivation is unrelated to what's found in collapse theories or generalized stochastic approaches, thereby decoupling the two puzzles. (shrink)

I. INTRODUCTION The notion of randomness has always been rather perplexing. Altho it is frequently used in natural and social science, both technically a informally, it seems to have been somewhat neglected by philosophers o science ever since the discussion of the foundations of the so-called fre- quency theory of probability, in which it was assigned a basic role, faded. Yet this discussion is of such significance that any attempt clarifying the notion of randomness will have to relate to it. (...) After a fe preliminary remarks on some of the problems and puzzles of randomne I shall, therefore, expound and discuss a concept of random distribution of a property in classes and sequences, defined in terms of relative f quencies and their limits. Because of certain shortcomings of this conce it appears advisable to turn to probabilities, in terms of which a qu different concept, viz., that of random conjunction of properties, can rea ily be defined as stochastic independence. This concept still has featu clashing with the ordinary sense of 'randomness' which become ma fest in cases where certain probabilities assume extreme values. However when we take measures defined in information theory as measuring the degree of randomness, to which purpose they lend themselves parti larly well, we find that these seemingly troublesome cases are rath harmless. A by-product of the discussion of measures of randomnes the concept of primitive randomness. The conclusion points out som further problems. (shrink)

An essential prerequisite for the development of a theory of consciousness is the clarification of the fundamental mechanisms underlying conscious processes. In this article I present an approach that sheds new light on these mechanisms. This approach builds on stochastic electrodynamics (SED), a promising theoretical framework that provides a deeper understanding of quantum systems and reveals the origin of quantum phenomena. I outline the most important concepts and findings of SED and interpret the neurophysiological body of evidence in the context (...) of these findings, indicating that the functioning of the brain rests upon exactly the same principles that are characteristic for quantum systems. On this basis, I construct a new hypothesis on the mechanisms behind conscious processes and discuss the new perspectives this hypothesis opens up for consciousness research. In particular, it offers the possibility of elucidating the relationship between brain and consciousness, of specifying the connection between consciousness and information, and of answering the question of what distinguishes conscious processes from unconscious processes. (shrink)

We present a general framework for analyzing the contribution to reproductive success of a behavioural action. An action may make a direct contribution to reproductive success, but even in the absence of a direct contribution it may make an indirect contribution by changing the animal's state. We consider actions over a period of time, and define a reward function that characterizes the relationship between the animal's state at the end of the period and its future reproductive success. Working back from (...) the end of the period using dynamic programming, the optimal action as a function of state and time can be found. The procedure also yields a measure of the cost, in terms of future reproductive success, of a suboptimal action. These costs provide us with a common currency for comparing activities such as eating and drinking, or eating and hiding from predators. The costs also give an indication of the robustness of the conclusions that can be drawn from a model. We review how our framework can be used to analyze optimal foraging decisions in a stochastic environment. We also discuss the modelling of optimal daily routines and provide an illustration based on singing to attract a mate. We use the model to investigate the features that can produce a dawn song burst in birds. State is defined very broadly so that it includes the information an animal has about its environment. Thus, exploration and learning can be included within the framework. (shrink)

Complexes of two or more proteins form many, if not most, of the intracellular “machines” that execute physical and chemical work, and transmit information. Complexes can form from stochastic post‐translational interactions of fully formed proteins, but recent attention has shifted to co‐translational interactions in which the most common mechanism involves binding of a mature constituent to an incomplete polypeptide emerging from a translating ribosome. Studies in yeast have revealed co‐translational interactions during formation of multiple major complexes, and together with (...) recent mammalian cell studies, suggest widespread utilization of the mechanism. These translation‐dependent interactions can involve a single or multiple mRNA templates, can be uni‐ or bi‐directional, and can use multi‐protein sub‐complexes as a binding component. Here, we discuss benefits of co‐translational complex assembly including accuracy and efficiency, overcoming hidden interfaces, localized and hierarchical assembly, and reduction of orphan protein degradation, toxicity, and dominant‐negative pathogenesis, all serving to improve cell fitness. (shrink)

The papers collected in this volume exemplify some of the trends in current approaches to logic, language and computation. Written by authors with varied academic backgrounds, the contributions are intended for an interdisciplinary audience. The first part of this volume addresses issues relevant for multi-agent systems: reasoning with incomplete information, reasoning about knowledge and beliefs, and reasoning about games. Proofs as formal objects form the subject of Part II. Topics covered include: contributions on logical frameworks, linear logic, and different (...) approaches to formalized reasoning. Part III focuses on representations and formal methods in linguistic theory, addressing the areas of comparative and temporal expressions, modal subordination, and compositionality. (shrink)

Much research has linked surprise to violation of expectations, but it has been less clear how one can be surprised when one has no particular expectation. This paper discusses a computational theory based on Algorithmic Information Theory, which can account for surprises in which one initially expects randomness but then notices a pattern in stimuli. The authors present evidence that a “randomness deficiency” heuristic leads to surprise in such cases.

One of the main challenges in consciousness research is widely known as the hard problem of consciousness. In order to tackle this problem, I utilize an approach from theoretical physics, called stochastic electrodynamics (SED), which goes one step beyond quantum theory and sheds new light on the reality behind matter. According to this approach, matter is a resonant oscillator that is orchestrated by an all-pervasive stochastic radiation field, called zero-point field (ZPF). The properties of matter are not intrinsic but acquired (...) by dynamic interaction with the ZPF, which in turn picks up information about the material system as soon as an ordered state, i.e., a stable attractor, is reached. I point out that these principles apply also to macroscopic biological systems. From this perspective, long-range correlations in the brain, such as neural gamma synchrony, can be interpreted in terms of order phenomena induced and stabilized by the ZPF, suggesting that every attractor in the brain goes along with an information state in the ZPF. In order to build the bridge to consciousness, I employ additional input from Eastern philosophy. From a comparison between SED and Eastern philosophy I draw the conclusion that the ZPF is an appropriate candidate for the substrate of consciousness, implying that information states in the ZPF are associated with conscious states. On this basis I develop a conceptual framework for consciousness that is fully consistent with physics, neurophysiology, and Eastern philosophy. I argue that this conceptual framework has many interesting features and opens a door to a theory of consciousness. Particularly, it solves the problem of how matter and consciousness communicate in a causally closed functional chain, it gives a physical grounding to existing approaches regarding the connection between consciousness and information, and it gives clear direction to future models and experiments. (shrink)

The concept of information and its relation to biosemiotics is a major area of contention among biosemioticians. Biosemioticians influenced by von Uexküll, Sebeok, Bateson and Peirce are critical of the way the concept as developed in information science has been applied to biology, while others believe that for biosemiotics to gain acceptance it will have to embrace information science and distance biosemiotics from Peirce’s philosophical work. Here I will defend the influence of Peirce on biosemiotics, arguing that (...) information science and biosemiotics as these were originally formulated are radically opposed research traditions. Failure to appreciate this will undermine the challenge of biosemiotics and other anti-reductionist traditions to mainstream science with its reductionist ambition to explain everything through physics. However, for this challenge to be successful, it will be necessary to respond to criticisms of Peircian ideas, jettisoning ideas that are no longer defensible and integrating ideas allied to his anti-reductionist agenda. Here I will argue that the natural philosophy of Gilbert Simondon, offering a searching critique of the application of the new concept of information and cybernetics to the life and human sciences, provides the means to defend and advance Peirce’s core ideas and thereby defend post-reductionist biosemiotics. (shrink)

Galvanic vestibular stimulation is a non-invasive method of electrically stimulating the vestibular system. We investigated whether the application of GVS can alter the learning of new functional mobility and manual control tasks and whether learning can be retained following GVS application. In a between-subjects experiment design, 36 healthy subjects performed repeated trials, capturing the learning of either a functional mobility task, navigating an obstacle course on a compliant surface with degraded visual cues or a manual control task, using a joystick (...) to null self-roll tilt against a pseudo-random disturbance while seated in the dark. In the “learning” phase of trials, bilateral, bipolar GVS was applied continuously. The GVS waveform also differed between subjects in each task group: white noisy galvanic vestibular stimulation at 0.3 mA high-level random GVS at 0.7 mA, or with the absence of stimulation. Following the “learning” trials, all subjects were blindly transitioned to sham GVS, upon which they immediately completed another series of trials to assess any aftereffects. In the functional mobility task, we found nGVS significantly improved task learning. Further, improvements in learning the functional mobility task with nGVS were retained, even once the GVS application was stopped. The benefits in learning with nGVS were not observed in the manual control task. High level GVS tended to inhibit learning in both tasks, but not significantly so. Even once the high-level stimulation was stopped, the impaired performance remained. Improvements in learning with nGVS may be due to increased information throughput resulting from stochastic resonance. The benefit of nGVS for functional mobility, but not manual control nulling, may be due to the multisensory, strategic, motor coordination, or spatial awareness aspects of the former task. Learning improvements with nGVS have the potential to benefit individuals who perform functional mobility tasks, such as astronauts, firefighters, high performance athletes, and soldiers. (shrink)

The number of scientific publications is growing exponentially. Research articles cite other work for various reasons and, therefore, have been studied extensively to associate documents. It is argued that not all references carry the same level of importance. It is essential to understand the reason for citation, called citation intent or function. Text information can contribute well if new natural language processing techniques are applied to capture the context of text data. In this paper, we have used contextualized word (...) embedding to find the numerical representation of text features. We further investigated the performance of various machine-learning techniques on the numerical representation of text. The performance of each of the classifiers was evaluated on two state-of-the-art datasets containing the text features. In the case of the unbalanced dataset, we observed that the linear Support Vector Machine achieved 86% accuracy for the “background” class, where the training was extensive. For the rest of the classes, including “motivation,” “extension,” and “future,” the machine was trained on less than 100 records; therefore, the accuracy was only 57 to 64%. In the case of a balanced dataset, each of the classes has the same accuracy as trained on the same size of training data. Overall, SVM performed best on both of the datasets, followed by the stochastic gradient descent classifier; therefore, SVM can produce good results as text classification on top of contextual word embedding. (shrink)

Model validation in computational cognitive psychology often relies on methods drawn from the testing of theories in experimental physics. However, applications of these methods to computational models in typical cognitive experiments can hide multiple, plausible sources of variation arising from human participants and from stochastic cognitive theories, encouraging a “model fixed, data variable” paradigm that makes it difficult to interpret model predictions and to account for individual differences. This article proposes a likelihood‐based, “data fixed, model variable” paradigm in which models (...) are treated as stochastic processes in experiments with participant‐to‐participant variation that can be applied to a broad range of mechanistic cognitive architectures. This article discusses the implementation and implications of this view in model validation, with a concrete focus on a simple class of ACT‐R models of cognition. This article is not intended as a recipe for broad application of these preliminary, proof‐of‐concept methods, but as a framework for communication between statisticians searching for interesting problems in the cognitive modeling sphere, and cognitive modelers interested in generalizing from deterministic to stochastic model validation, in the face of random variation in human experimental data. (shrink)

Recent advances in genomic and imaging techniques have revealed the complex manner of organizing billions of base pairs of DNA necessary for maintaining their functionality and ensuring the proper expression of genetic information. The SMC proteins and cohesin complex primarily contribute to forming higher‐order chromatin structures, such as chromosomal territories, compartments, topologically associating domains (TADs) and chromatin loops anchored by CCCTC‐binding factor (CTCF) protein or other genome organizers. Cohesin plays a fundamental role in chromatin organization, gene expression and regulation. (...) This review aims to describe the current understanding of the dynamic nature of the cohesin‐DNA complex and its dependence on cohesin for genome maintenance. We discuss the current 3C technique and numerous bioinformatics pipelines used to comprehend structural genomics and epigenetics focusing on the analysis of Cohesin‐centred interactions. We also incorporate our present comprehension of Loop Extrusion (LE) and insights from stochastic modelling. (shrink)

Given free information and unlimited processing power, should decision algorithms use as much information as possible? A formal model of the decision-making environment is developed to address this question and provide conditions under which informationally frugal algorithms, without any information or processing costs whatsoever, are optimal. One cause of compression that allows optimal algorithms to rationally ignore information is inverse movement of payoffs and probabilities (e.g., high payoffs occur with low probably and low payoffs occur with (...) high probability). If inversely related payoffs and probabilities cancel out, then predictors that correlate with payoffs and consequently condition the probabilities associated with different payoffs will drop out of the expected-payoff objective function, severing the link between information and optimal action rules. Stochastic payoff processes in which rational ignoring occurs are referred to as compressed environments, because optimal action depends on a reduced-dimension subset of the environmental parameters. This paper considers benefits and limitations of economic models versus other methods for studying links between environmental structure and the real-world success of simple decision procedures. Different methods converge on the normative proposition of ecological rationality, as opposed to axiomatic rationality based on informational efficiency and internal consistency axioms, as a superior framework for comparing the effectiveness of decision strategies and prescribing decision algorithms in application. (shrink)

This paper aims to establish several interconnected points. First, a particular interpretation of the mathematical definition of information, known as the causal interpretation, is supported largely by misunderstandings of the engineering context from which it was taken. A better interpretation, which makes the definition and quantification of information relative to the function of its user, is outlined. The first half of the paper is given over to introducing communication theory and its competing interpretations. The second half explores three (...) consequences of the main thesis. First, a popular claim that the quantification of information in a signal is irrelevant for the meaning of that signal is exposed as fallacious. Second, a popular distinction between causal and semantic information is shown to be misleading, and I argue it should be replaced with a related distinction between natural and intentional signs. Finally, I argue that recent empirical work from microbiology and cognitive science drawing on resources of mathematical communication theory is best interpreted by the functional account. Overall, a functional approach is shown to be both theoretically and empirically well-supported. (shrink)

The article examines the problem of ensuring the political stability of a democratic social system with a shortage of a vital commodity (like vaccine against COVID-19). In such a system, members of society citizens assess the authorities. Thus, actions by the authorities to increase the supply of this commodity can contribute to citizens' approval and hence political stability. However, this supply is influenced by random factors, the actions of competitors, etc. Therefore, citizens do not have sufficient information about all (...) the possibilities of supplying, and it is difficult for them to make the right decisions. Such citizen unawareness can be exploited by unscrupulous politicians to achieve personal targets. Therefore, it is necessary to organize public control to motivate politicians to use all available opportunities in supplying. The goal of the paper is to build such a digital mechanism of public control of the politicians by citizens, which would best assess and stimulate the activities of the authorities to improve the supply of a vital commodity. In the age of artificial intelligence, such digital public control in the face of uncertainty can be based on digital machine learning. In addition, it is necessary to take into account and model the activities of politicians associated with the presence of their own targets that do not coincide with public ones. Such politicians can use the learning of citizens for their own targets. The objective of the article is to build an optimal digital mechanism of public control in a two-level model of a democratic social system—a digital society. At its top level, there is the Citizen, who gives an assessment for the Politico located at the lower level. In turn, the Politico can influence the supplying of a vital commodity. Political stability is guaranteed if the Citizen regularly approves of the Politico’s actions to increase this supply. However, the Politico may not use the opportunities available to him to offer a commodity to achieve a personal target. To avoid this, the Politico’s control mechanism is proposed. It includes the procedure for digital learning of the Citizen, as well as a procedure for assessing the Politico activity. Sufficient conditions have been found for the synthesis of such the Politico’s control mechanism, at which stochastic possibilities of increasing the supply of a vital commodity are used. The example of such the Politico’s control mechanism is considered on the case of supply of the COVID-19 vaccine in England. (shrink)

In his constructive and well-informed commentary, Andrei Khrennikov acknowledges a privileged status of classical probability theory with respect to statistical analysis. He also sees advantages offered by the Contextuality-by-Default theory, notably, that it “demystifies quantum mechanics by highlighting the role of contextuality,” and that it can detect and measure contextuality in inconsistently connected systems. He argues, however, that classical probability theory may have difficulties in describing empirical phenomena if they are described entirely in terms of observable events. We disagree: contexts (...) in which random variables are recorded are as observable as the variables’ values. Khrennikov also argues that the Contextuality-by-Default theory suffers the problem of non-uniqueness of couplings. We disagree that this is a problem: couplings are all possible ways of imposing counterfactual joint distributions on random variables that de facto are not jointly distributed. The uniqueness of modeling experiments by means of quantum formalisms brought up by Khrennikov is achieved for the price of additional, substantive assumptions. This is consistent with our view of quantum theory as a special-purpose generator of classical probabilities. Khrennikov raises the issue of “mental signaling,” by which he means inconsistent connectedness in behavioral systems. Our position is that it is as inherent to behavioral systems as their stochasticity. (shrink)

This book explores the universe and its subsystems from the three lenses of evolutionary (diversifying), developmental (converging), and complex (adaptive) processes at all scales. It draws from prolific experts within the academic disciplines of complexity science, physical science, information and computer science, theoretical and evo-devo biology, cosmology, astrobiology, evolutionary theory, developmental theory, and philosophy. The chapters come from a Satellite Meeting, "Evolution, Development and Complexity" (EDC) hosted at the Conference on Complex Systems, in Cancun, 2017. The contributions will be (...) peer-reviewed and contributors from outside the conference will be invited to submit chapters to ensure full coverage of the topics. This book explores many issues within the field of EDC such as the interaction of evolutionary stochasticity and developmental determinism in biological systems and what they might teach us about these twin processes in other complex systems. This text will appeal to students and researchers within the complex systems and EDC fields.. (shrink)

The paper introduces and utilizes a few new concepts: “nonstandard Peano arithmetic”, “complementary Peano arithmetic”, “Hilbert arithmetic”. They identify the foundations of both mathematics and physics demonstrating the equivalence of the newly introduced Hilbert arithmetic and the separable complex Hilbert space of quantum mechanics in turn underlying physics and all the world. That new both mathematical and physical ground can be recognized as information complemented and generalized by quantum information. A few fundamental mathematical problems of the present such (...) as Fermat’s last theorem, four-color theorem as well as its new-formulated generalization as “four-letter theorem”, Poincaré’s conjecture, “P vs NP” are considered over again, from and within the new-founding conceptual reference frame of information, as illustrations. Simple or crucially simplifying solutions and proofs are demonstrated. The link between the consistent completeness of the system mathematics-physics on the ground of information and all the great mathematical problems of the present (rather than the enumerated ones) is suggested. (shrink)