Macroeconomic dynamics and the at-risk-of-poverty population in Slovakia This paper deals with analysis and presentation of the core findings under the EU SILC 2009 project. Particularly we are oriented on study of the socially vulnerable groups of population identified according their income situation. As a sorting criterion for this purpose we use the standard methodology set by OECD and Eurostat. It means the 60% of the national median equivalized disposable income is applied for this criterion as the poverty threshold. (...) The national income variable is firstly calculated as a total income for each surveyed household and dived by the equivalized size of household. By this procedure the households of various structures are transformed onto generally accepted scale. The special attention of our study is oriented on the cluster of population living on income below the poverty threshold. For this population we calculate so called social deficit. Through this value we show the volume of financial means needed to upgrade the living standard of the population living bellow poverty threshold at least to the poverty threshold level.Special section of the paper is devoted to study of relation among the core macroeconomic indicators and level and size of the at-risk-of-poverty population during the period of last economic development, including both economic growth and economic recession. According our tentative findings we did not find the significant impact of economic growth on the status of socially vulnerable population. This finding however should be studied in broader context, with longer time series of relevant data and with broader set of explanatory variables. (shrink)

This research investigates the factors influencing the disparity between domestic gold prices (SJC gold and 9999 gold) and global gold prices in Vietnam from January 2011 to December 2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we identify key macroeconomic determinants impacting this price spread, including interest rates, oil prices, and consumer demand. Our findings reveal that higher interest rates are associated with larger price spreads, suggesting that monetary policy plays a significant role in the domestic gold market. Oil (...) prices exhibit a negative relationship with the price spread for 9999 gold, indicating that rising oil prices tend to align domestic gold prices more closely with global trends. Consumer demand notably affects the SJC_Global price spread but not the 9999_Global spread, reflecting the different market dynamics of finished goods versus raw materials. Additionally, the error correction terms in both models indicate a robust mechanism for long-term equilibrium, demonstrating the Vietnamese gold market’s resilience. These insights highlight the need for policymakers to reconsider existing regulations, such as Decree 24, to ensure a stable and efficient gold market. The study concludes that while the Vietnamese gold market exhibits sustainable practices, regulatory revisions are necessary to support both market growth and community development. Future research should consider additional macroeconomic variables and the impact of regulatory changes over time to further understand the dynamics of gold price disparities in Vietnam. (shrink)

The paper undertakes macroeconomic analysis of Universal Basic Income (UBI). It focuses on issues of paying for and the funding of universal basic income. A number of proposals are examined and the limitations of borrowing and money creation for the funding of UBI are indicated. It is generally argued that funding of UBI should be examined in terms of funding through taxation. The effects of UBI on employment and national output and the macroeconomic limits on the scale on (...) UBI in terms of work force participation and tax rates are investigated. (shrink)

_Unemployment poses a significant threat to Pakistan's economy alongside other global countries. The current study tries to determine the substantial determinants affecting unemployment in the country. Data was retrieved from the worldwide development indicator (WDI) and worldwide governance indicators (WGI) by employing Time series analysis from 1996 to 2021. Augmented Dicky Fuller and Philips-Perron Unit root test were employed to check the stationary of the data. To figure out the short-run and long-run cointegration among variables, the model Autoregressive distributed (...) lag (ARDL) was applied. Findings indicate that all variables were statistically significant. Inflation, FDI and GDP are negatively affecting unemployment. While population growth, external debt and governance index have a positive association with unemployment. Growing population and external debt are substantial contributors to unemployment, while governance reveals inadequate effectiveness in addressing this challenge. Study recommended to improve FDI and GDP growth in Pakistan to reduce unemployment. Furthermore, govt stability and effective policies are necessary to overcome the problem of unemployment._. (shrink)

Stock markets accurately reflect countries’ economic health, and stock returns are tightly related to economic indices. One popular area of financial research is the factors that influence stock returns. Several investigations have frequently cited macroeconomic factors, among numerous elements. Therefore, this study focuses on the empirical analysis of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market returns. When a stock market becomes increasingly volatile, it becomes susceptible to economic uncertainty news, and information on social media platforms. Thus, we (...) incorporated a new dimension of economic uncertainty news sentiment for stock return predictions. We employed the daily data ofgold index, crude oil price, interest rate, exchange rate, and stock returns for a set of countries from January 2010 to December 2020. Subsequently, to compute coefficients, we conducted a regression analysis using one of the more sophisticated approaches: single-layer neural networks and ordinary least square regression. In addition, we only computed EUNS for the period of the fiscal budget announcement for the US, Turkey, and Hong Kong. The results indicate that the gold index, interest rate, and exchange rate are highly significant and negative macroeconomic factors for all analyzed countries. These findings also indicate that EUNS is important and detrimental for projecting stock returns. (shrink)

The existing research aims to seek the herding effects on stock returns at the industry level in Pakistan Stock Exchange. Moreover, the relationship between stock returns and herding has been studied by taking some macroeconomic and fundamental control variables. Herding is actually imitating other’s behaviour. This phenomenon indicates a situation where the investors follow the crowed and ignores their personal information, despite knowing the correctness of their information. Herd behaviour may drive from fundamental factors leading to efficient markets. However, (...) it may not be associated with fundamental information causing unstable prices. The stock price data of PSX listed companies from 1999 to 2017 have been the point of focus. The underlying herding measure was the cross-sectional absolute deviation, proposed by Chang et al.. The significant analysis technique facilitating the current research is pooled mean group /panel autoregressive distributed lag approach. Findings revealed that some sectors are evident for positive effect of herding on stock returns, whereas some others are witnessed for its negative effects on stock returns, in both long run and short run. As far as the control variables are concerned, they demonstrated both significant and insignificant effects on stock returns in different sectors of PSX. The study has important implications for policymakers. (shrink)

At present, the research on the influence mechanism of psychological capital on farmers’ entrepreneurial behavior is relatively mature. However, the relationship between farmers’ entrepreneurial behavior and macroeconomics by entrepreneurial psychological capital is still unclear. Based on this, firstly, this work analyzes the entrepreneurial PsyCap in detail. Secondly, the research hypothesis is put forward and a conceptual model is implemented. A questionnaire is designed to analyze the current situation of farmers’ entrepreneurial PsyCap and entrepreneurial behavior. Finally, a structural equation model is (...) implemented to explore the relationship between farmers’ entrepreneurial behavior and macroeconomics. The path test of the SEM is utilized to obtain the following. Macroeconomic growth has a significant positive impact on entrepreneurial behavior. Macroeconomics can affect farmers’ entrepreneurial behavior to varying degrees by affecting the four entrepreneurial PsyCap of farmers’ subjective cognition, Tenacity, hope and open-mindedness. This indicates that entrepreneurial PsyCap plays an intermediary role between farmers’ entrepreneurial behavior and macroeconomics. The purpose of this work is to explore the relationship among farmers’ entrepreneurial behavior, macroeconomics, and the role of entrepreneurial PsyCap through empirical analysis, thereby providing a theoretical reference for the subsequent country’s optimization of farmers’ entrepreneurial strategies. (shrink)

In the past two decades, especially after the financial crisis of 2007–09, the literature for examining the availability of integration between the stock exchanges in developed and developing markets has grown. The importance of this topic stems from the significant implications of the linkage between exchange markets on various decisions taken by interested parties, such as policymakers and investors, in the decisions for portfolio diversification. This study examines the relationship between a developing stock exchange index, Amman Stock Exchange Index, and (...) the number of international indices, including S&P 500, NASDAQ, Nikkei, DAX, CAC, and HSI for 2008-2019. To validate the availability of the linkage between the indices, the author includes various tests of a correlation coefficient, stepwise regression analysis, and artificial neural network. Despite the results indicating that the ANN is more efficient than linear regression in investigating the availability of the relationship between ASEI and international indices, stepwise regression and neural network support this relationship. Furthermore, ANN results revealed that the S&P 500 index and year have the most substantial relationship with ASEI. Our research is theoretically and practically important; policymakers and investors can benefit from our findings. Future studies may explore the effect of different international stock market indices on ASEI or other developing markets. Further studies can use macroeconomic factors to build prediction models for stock market indices. (shrink)

The prime objective of this study is to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis concerning Pakistan and globally across South Asian developing countries. It also demonstrates those economic indicators through which the economic performance of the countries is influenced considering the prospective global economic costs of COVID-19 under different scenarios. The study systematically reviewed the literature on historical pandemic crises and the most recent Covid-19 fallout economic disorder in South Asian countries. Considering the history of human civilization, (...) there are varied instances of severe epidemics that are caused by numerous viruses. It is observed that the prevailing outbreak of COVID-19 has eventually affected large scale manufacturing, service sectors and arose supply side constraint to an extent. On the contrary, GDP and consumption declined sharply. Furthermore, sudden loss of service sector jobs and the rise in food prices have created an economic crisis for developing countries of South Asia. The study attempts to discuss the policy responses given by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, The State Bank of Pakistan, and the Ministry of finance, Pakistan encountered due to the deteriorating international environment, fiscal stress, and difficulties in financial liquidity markets and provides relevant policies for the better prospect of Pakistan's economy after comparing it with other South Asian countries affected by this pandemic vulnerabilities. (shrink)

The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to identify the components of social and economic systems life cycle. To achieve this aim, the article describes the traits and characteristics of the system, determines the features of social and economic systems functioning and is applied a systematic approach in the study of their life cycle. The results of the analysis. It is determined that the development of social and economic systems has signs of cyclicity and is explained (...) methodologically by the axiomatics, rules and laws. Understanding of circular patterns has been formed long ago and now is recorded by scientists monitoring the properties of natural and artificial environment of human activity. During the study, it was found out that in scientific literature there is no unified description of the life cycle elements of social and economic systems at personal, micro, meso, macro and global levels. The paper investigates the cyclical patterns in multilevel social and economic systems for a human, employee, family, product, company, city, industry, elite, macroeconomic indicators, humanity, global processes, global economic system and the Universe. It is noted that at grass-roots administrative levels of the global environment of a human life activity system, a thesis about the cyclicity of development and the stages of the life cycle is considered by a wide circle of scientists and is doubtless. On hierarchically higher management levels of the global environment of human activity system, the scientists noticed the similar patterns of the cyclical nature. Problematic and discussion questions about cyclic development of social and economic systems are identified: the uncertainty of the driving force source of repeated changes; the vague distinction between systemic (internal) and off-system (external) influence on development; the lack of a unified description of development nature at different managerial levels; the use of different descriptive terms for the same constituent elements of repeated changes (period, stage, phase, wave, cycle); the uncertainty of the number of repeated changes constituent elements; the absence of an identification mechanism of the exact time of changes in the constituent elements of repeated changes; the surface description of out-of-system period of the subjects activity («before-system» period of creation and «after-system» period of liquidation); attaching more importance to primary and less importance to ultimate component elements of the repeated changes; the lack of reliable mechanism for predicting and forecasting the dynamics of constituent components of repeated changes. It is noted that all social and economic systems are developed within repeated changes and they have the same attributes of cyclicity: the fluctuation of indicators is marked that characterize the condition of the subject; the presence of system (from creation to liquidation) and out-of-system (creation – «design» and liquidation – «disposal») periods are noted; the subjects are created by the actions of other subjects (that is, subjects do not arise «out of nowhere», but are the result of actions of other subjects – «constructors»); after cessation of subjects functioning, their resources are used by other subjects (that is, the subjects do not disappear «nowhere», and they are transformed into the resources of other subjects – «recovery»); a unidirectional life cycle from «birth» to «death» is observed in the subjects; the subjects do not have to undergo the whole life cycle (each time might be the last); the subjects display similar changes of the indicators during their activity; ascending, peak and descending fluctuations of indicators are observed in the subjects; minor fluctuations occur in the constituent elements; the subjects have individual nature of indicator fluctuations and duration of activity. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The scientific novelty of the study is identification structure of life cycle of social and economic system with definitions of: common («before-system state», «growth», «stabilization», «reduction», «after-system state») and specific («creation», «slow growth», «rapid growth», «growth stabilization», «short stabilization», «rapid reduction», «slow reduction», «liquidation») constituent elements of repeated changes; marginal borders of indicators; dynamics of constituent elements of life cycle; key points of changing nature of the indicators dynamics. Identification of the life cycle of social and economic systems characterizes potentially possible limits of their activity in time and provides the possibility of further research of aspects of the cyclical development for methodological basis formation and the development of applied measures of systemic development in the areas of marketing and management innovations. (shrink)

The aim of this paper is to describe and analyze people's confidence in political institutions in the so-called BRICS countries, that is, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. I argue that the quality of macroeconomic indicators cannot explain the variation in political confidence between the five most dynamic new emerging economies, and that there is no substantial difference among the young, middle-aged, and senior-aged groups. By combing data from the Asia Barometer Survey and the World Value Survey, (...) I provide two complementary approaches, one sociocultural and the other micropolitical, to reveal the factors that influence people's confidence in four major political institutions. The explanatory effects of these two approaches are mixed. Political identity and values, in most cases, have a significant impact on political confidence. On the other hand, high levels of interpersonal social trust, individual happiness, and satisfaction with living standards also show positive influences. (shrink)

Economists study "The Economy," or so one might suppose. Yet this overarching entity is strikingly absent from mainstream theory. Since the 1950s, it has generally been described with a few mathematical propositions and not given a description that attends to institutions, power relations, or the emergent properties that form the leading indicators in macroeconomic theory. There is thus a significant divergence between folk economics and scientific economics on this theoretical entity. This article briefly addresses the history of this (...) concept, noting its heyday in the interwar years, and brings to bear some of the analytical apparatus on institutional facts devised by John Searle. Whatever is meant by "The Economy" in folk economics appears to be significantly divergent from what is posited in scientific economics. Key Words: economy • Searle • theoretical entities • macroeconomics • economic indicators • folk economics. (shrink)

Modern society is developing under the condition of globalization processes. Geographical boundaries are no longer able to restrict financial transactions and agreements between states. Due to the process of financial globalization, role of gold in the world economy has experienced significant transformations. During the period of bimetallism and monometallism this metal served as money, and after the process of demonetization for the gold was officially assigned the status of precious commodity. But, despite the demonetization of gold de jure, demand for (...) this precious metal is significant not only in the industry but also in the investing activities. As a result, study of the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the gold price volatility remains important today. With the purpose of a more detailed analysis of factors influencing the growth of gold price, world economic indices have been used during the research, namely: index of economic globalization, index of political globalization, GDP increase according to purchasing power parity , investments share in GDP and gold reserves. Result of the research shows that with further globalization of economic and political sphere, as well as with increase in world GDP can be observed slowdown in growth of both nominal and real price of gold. However, the increase of the share of investment in world GDP will contribute to the intensive growth of the real price of gold. Also our study has showed that despite the fact that gold and silver belong to the group of the precious metals, the influence of various external factors on them differs. (shrink)

In the last decades, Mexican government applied traditional economic policies to overcome underdevelopment and to face the recurrent economic crisis. As a result, macroeconomic indicators show an acceptable economic performance, however, half of population is considered poor. One of the poorest region is Soconusco in the southern state of Chiapas. The Soconusco Strategic Plan 2020 proposes development strategies based on the regional characteristics. As a precondition for these strategies to work, a knowledge based platform has to be built. (...) As suggested by the evolutionary view of economic theory, knowledge, as an input in the creation of capabilities, can be a useful tool to promote development. (shrink)

The purpose of the study is to analyze the main directions of the digital transformation of the Russian economy; to suggest ways to solve the problems caused by the radical change in the digital space. The article considers the main directions of digital transformation of the Russian economy, proves the need to change the approach to the digital economy, analyzes the directions that allow improving the main macroeconomic indicators. The scientific novelty lies in the analysis of the directions (...) of digital transformation of the Russian economy, the development of applied management tools and the determination of the starting points of their research. As a result, specific priority areas of digitalization of the country's economy were identified. The directions of solving the problems caused by the radical change in the digital space are proposed. The following positions are highlighted: the development of the payment and settlement space, IT services, transport services and logistics, the need to change which is relevant. (shrink)

There are some theoretical grounds to expect that general inflation can have an ambiguous effect on the likelihood of the outbreak of revolutionary actions: while high inflation has a positive effect on revolutionary activity, moderate inflation reduces the likelihood of revolution, whereas negative inflation values again increase revolutionary activity. At the same time, many researchers suggest to treat separately food inflation as a significant predictor of the unfolding of revolutionary processes, because food inflation is a much more sensitive macroeconomic (...) indicator that aggravates many social ills, such as poverty, protest sentiments, frustration, socio-economic shocks, etc. The authors, based on modern political science concepts and quantitative calculations, test the corresponding hypotheses. Using a rare event regression model and a set of control variables (the main factors of revolutions, according to modern political science research — GDP per capita, population, share of youth, urbanization, level of education, level of democracy) to obtain more reliable results, the authors come to the conclusion that the general level of inflation does not have a significant impact on the risks of revolutionary destabilization. On the other hand, food inflation does turn out to be a fairly reliable predictor of the beginning of the unfolding of revolutionary processes. Food inflation has a particularly strong impact on low-income groups, so it is powerful destabilizing factor in the least economically developed countries. Furthermore, regionally, food inflation may have the most powerful destabilizing effect in Africa (especially in African cities). (shrink)

The paper presents the second part of the study of “sponsored goods” in the cultural sector. It describes economic activities of theaters, concert organizations and museums in three dimensional index space coordinate axes being the lag of labor productivity, faster growth of salaries and tickets prices in relation to the corresponding macroeconomic indices. The methodology of constructing such indexes and statistical data used for this purpose are described in the first article published under the title “Symptoms and consequences of (...) Baumol’s cost disease in cultural sector: an econometric study of “sponsored goods”. The aim of the present article is to construct and analyse econometric model of cost disease based on statistical data on activities of Russian theaters, concert organizations and museums for the period of 1994-2010. The regression analysis based on structural model that reflects theoretically predictable links was chosen as a method of study. Such links include first, influence on cost growth of lag of labour productivity in arts organisations and parallel trend in salaries. Second, dependence of increase of income of such organizations on dynamics of labour productivity and ticket prices, third, balanced equation - product of equilibrium conditions for sponsored goods that describes the interrelation between costs of production, prices and budget subsidies. The calculations made it possible to construct basic and modified econometric models that establish statistical correlations between income deficit and three regressors, namely indexes of labour productivity, salaries and ticket prices. As a result of this model the article presents projections of regression relation of income deficit on «expenditures plane», «income plane» and «economic results plane». Theequations derived allow to conclude that there is a statistically significant income deficit negative elasticity by labour productivity index, positive elasticity by salaries index and ticket price index, as well as rising dynamics of Russian performing arts organization income deficit and its compensation in the nearest future. (shrink)

A slight stabilization of some macroeconomic indicators Ukraine in conditions of long-term preservation of structural imbalances in the domestic economy against the background of global economic recovery, reduce consumer demand in the global markets combined with the devaluation of the hryvnia no reason to conclude that ensure the sustainability of enterprises to the likely financial and economic turmoil. Given this situation, the article identifies the main problems of accounting of foreign exchange transactions in Ukraine through the prism of (...) foreign software security. At present actualized issue integration into the European economic space, which leads to aggravation of the issue of financial payments in foreign currency and their reflection in the accounting business. Stand unstable economic situation in the domestic market of Ukraine leads the majority of domestic enterprises to shift to foreign markets. Foreign trade enterprises directly related to the riskiness and exposure to foreign shocks her, so constantly need to monitor the status of foreign security. Based on empirical research using the software package MS Excel, articles in the research and forecasting of external economic security of Ukraine and brought a further increase of this indicator in a strategic perspective. However, foreign financial and payment transactions engaged in enterprise involving consideration of exchange rate fluctuations, in which there are exchange differences significantly affect the financial results of the company. In order to improve the accounting currency transactions in the context of foreign trade enterprises proposed harmonization of national and international accounting systems using international standards in national accounting system and financial reporting. (shrink)

Macroeconomic measures and objectives inform and structure political perception in large systems of governance. Herman Daly and John Cobb attack the objective and measure of economic growth in For the Common Good. However, their attack is paradoxical: 1) they are in favour of strong sustainability, but construct with the ISEW an index of weak sustainability, and 2) they describe humans as person-in- community, but propose an index based on personal consumption. While the ISEW has attracted much attention, the same (...) cannot be said about the person-in- community ontology developed at length and prominently in their work. This essay therefore aims to reconstruct Daly and Cobb's criticism of growth from the person-in- community approach. It defends the ISEW as a debunking index that is motivated by the person-in- community approach and the economy-ecology scale problem, and that also engages in the politics of scale. But this does not mean that the ISEW is also a measure of sustainable economic welfare. Critics expecting this kind of sustainability index are likely to see contradictions, but not the critical role the ISEW can play for democratic accountability. Understanding the latter makes it possible to see the ISEW as a step in the evolution of political perception and action. Accordingly the essay is also intended as a contribution to the understanding of this role in a situation where sustainability indices continue to be calculated, and renewed efforts at the measurement of welfare and happiness are made. (shrink)

This paper is about mechanisms and models, and how they interact. In part, it is a response to recent discussion in philosophy of biology regarding whether natural selection is a mechanism. We suggest that this debate is indicative of a more general problem that occurs when scientists produce mechanistic models of populations and their behaviour. We can make sense of claims that there are mechanisms that drive population-level phenomena such as macroeconomics, natural selection, ecology, and epidemiology. But talk of mechanisms (...) and mechanistic explanation evokes objects with well-defined and localisable parts which interact in discrete ways, while models of populations include parts and interactions that are neither local nor discrete in any actual populations. This apparent tension can be resolved by carefully distinguishing between the properties of a model and those of the system it represents. To this end, we provide an analysis that recognises the flexible relationship between a mechanistic model and its target system. In turn, this reveals a surprising feature of mechanistic representation and explanation: it can occur even when there is a mismatch between the mechanism of the model and that of its target. Our analysis reframes the debate, providing an alternative way to interpret scientists’ mechanism-talk , which initially motivated the issue. We suggest that the relevant question is not whether any population-level phenomenon such as natural selection is a mechanism, but whether it can be usefully modelled as though it were a particular type of mechanism. (shrink)

This study explores the rationality behind firms’ decision to admit or deny their involvement in bribery when responding to confidential surveys conducted by international agencies. Specifically, we posit that firms’ reluctance to provide accurate information about their engagement in bribery is at least to some extent contingent on certain situational factors. In other words, we claim that this behavior is context dependent. The paper uses the notions provided by the theory of planned behavior to understand the way in which the (...) corruption of the legal environment, the intensity of market competition, and identification risk influence firms’ decision to lie about their involvement in bribery. To test these notions, we use databases from the fifth wave of the EBRD-World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey, country-level data from the Kauffman Foundation and macroeconomic information from the World Bank database. We run ordinary least squares with geographic region-clustered standard errors on data from 30 countries and 6122 individual firms during the period 2012–2013. Consistent with our expectations, the results indicate that firms operating within more corrupt legal environments, facing more competition, and bearing a higher risk of being identified are less likely to deny their involvement in bribery. We conclude that not all firms have the same incentives to lie about their participation in bribery, and therefore, identifying the drivers of this heterogeneity may help policymakers better assess the reliability of bribery information collected through confidential surveys. (shrink)

The electrification of East Africa followed an exceptionally uneven path. After about 50 years of relative neglect under colonial rule, the construction of hydroelectric dams moved electricity generation into the focus of late colonial development policy and became the major field of intervention for foreign donors after independence. The metrics of electricity attained a role as indicator and driver for economic growth, and therefore as a target figure in economic policy, one that was arguably not justified by their actual significance (...) in the energy landscape of East Africa. This paper analyses both the global preconditions of this shift and its local repercussions. Rather than the physical visibility of electricity in the form of large dams and high-tension lines, the paper focuses on the processes that rendered electricity ontologically visible. It traces attempts by engineers, expert advisors, or development consultants to translate the complex information associated with the generation and consumption of electricity into calculable and comparable metrics. The paper scrutinises these commensuration processes in terms of the resources and knowledge they required, the frameworks of agency they opened, and the way they fed into wider discourses of development. It asks how the metrics of electricity themselves became part of the colonial and postcolonial politics of calculation, as they increasingly came to be seen as a medium for conceiving national economies. This trend was reinforced by the ascent of development economics in the 1950s and its influence on the ontological foundations of international development cooperation and post-independence nation-building. Because of the calculability and capital-intensity of its production, electricity lent itself perfectly to an economic policy based on macroeconomic aggregates and abstract growth models. Conversely, the electricity bias of international development agencies and the national government rendered rural, non-commercial, and non-productive energy use largely invisible. (shrink)

This paper further extends the existing GARCH-MIDAS model to deal with the effect of microstructure noise in mixed frequency data. This paper has two highlights. First, according to the estimation of the long-term volatility components of the GARCH-MIDAS model, rAVGRV is adopted to substitute for the RV estimator. rAVGRV uses the rich data sources in tick-by-tick data and significantly corrects the impact of the microstructure noise on volatility estimation. Second, besides introducing macroeconomic variables, deposits in financial institutions, industrial value-added, (...) and M2), Chinese Economic Policy Uncertainty index and Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker are introduced in the long-run volatility component of the GARCH-MIDAS model. As indicated by the results of this paper, the rAVGRV-based GARCH-MIDAS is slightly better than the RV model-based GARCH-MIDAS. In addition to the common macroeconomic variables significantly impacting stock market volatility, CEPU also substantially impacts stock market volatility. Nevertheless, the effect of EMV on the stock market is insignificant. (shrink)

ABSTRACT The individual-community relationship has always been one of the most fundamental topics of social sciences. In sociology, this is known as the micro-macro relationship while in economics it refers to the processes, through which, individual actions lead to macroeconomic phenomena. Based on philosophical discourse and systems theory, many sociologists even use the term "emergence" in their understanding of micro-macro relationship, which refers to collective phenomena that are created by the cooperation of individuals, but cannot be reduced to individual (...) actions. "Emergence" theories attempt to explain the nature of society as a complex system by examining how individuals and their relationships lead to the creation of integrated and macro-social phenomena such as markets, educational systems, cultural beliefs, and shared social practices. As a prelude to activity, every researcher has to answer the question from the methodological point of view, how is it possible to study the behavior of social groups and how can we gain knowledge about the laws related to social groups? Anyone who deals with humanities and social sciences or any reality and phenomenon that affects human beings, inevitably deals with the reality that is emerging. In fact, emergence occurs when one level of reality emerges radically from another level. Examples of emergent levels of reality include how the mind emerges from the body; or the way society emerges from human beings. Therefore, when there is an emerging factor, different scientific disciplines should be used, because it is inevitable to talk about social affairs, psychology and neurobiology, as well as physical and even chemical. -/- INTRODUCTION Since its beginning in the 19th century, sociology has faced the fundamental question of what a social phenomena stands for? At a glance, sociologists deal with the study of social groups, collective behavior, institutions, social structures, social networks, and social dynamics, and ultimately all such phenomena are composed of individuals. Therefore, social phenomena seem to have no independent ontological status, and in this case, sociology is ultimately about reducible individuals. Different approaches about the micro-macro relationship, using the concept of "emergence", argue that although collective phenomena are created by individuals, they cannot be reduced to individual action. The term "emergence" is used to distinguish "emergent results" from " Procedural results". Results are called Procedural that can only be calculated by adding or subtracting the causes that act together. On the contrary, they are emergent outcomes that are qualitatively novel compared to the causes from which they originate. An example of such emergent results is mental characteristics that emerge from neural processes, but are not considered among the characteristics of neural processes of components - which are their origin. Philosophical debates about emergentism and reductionism focus on the mind-brain relationship, but as many philosophers have noted, they can be generalized to apply to any hierarchical set of features. The cognitive revolution reactivated a 19th century controversy between theorists of Identity and dualism. The theorists of Identity believe in reductionist materialism and elimination of metaphysics, according to which the mind is nothing more than the biological, while the dualists believe that the mind and the brain are distinct from each other. Emergence has been considered as a third way between the theories of Identity and dualism. -/- METHODOLOGY Interdisciplinarity Is fundamentally indicated by the dominance of open systems as well as social and emerging systems at different levels. Therefore, as long as we are facing a new emergentism, there will necessarily be different fields and an interdisciplinary method. The commonality of social sciences and cognitive sciences on the issue of emergence provides the possibility of interaction and exchange of concepts between these two for deeper research. Therefore, in this research, apart from the concepts of Subvenience and downward causation, we have used multiple realization and wildly disjunctive, which are used to explain the emerging concept in cognitive sciences, including neurobiology, psychology, and philosophy. For analytical and interdisciplinary approaches, after examining the concepts of subvenience, and wildly disjunctive, Individualistic and collectivist emergentism have been reviewed. And then their adequacy is criticized and evaluated in meeting strong emergence conditions. -/- FINDINGS Philosophers of the mind have been able to define the conditions of irreducibility and downward causation, which are essential for strong emergence, by using the principle of subvenience with the help of multiple realization and wildly disjunctive principles. Therefore, by definition, emergentist individualism suffers from the problem of how to explain downward causality and irreducibility, and emergentist collectivism faces the challenge of reification. The analysis of the challenges facing the two methodological approaches of individualism and collectivism leads us to three unresolved issues about the emerging phenomenon, which are realism, downward causality, and mechanism. Despite the differences in the stances of these two approaches regarding the aforementioned triple problems, individualists and collectivists both agree that some social characteristics are reducible; and some others are irreducible due to their complexity, the determination of which, depends on the case study of the mechanism of emergence of each social characteristic. -/- CONCLUSION An emergence that is consistent with reductionism is called a weak emergence. And strong emergence includes the principle of irreducibility and downward causality. According to strong emergence, the characteristics of social phenomena have downward causal power, which cannot be reduced to the causal forces. The principle of subvenience, together with multiple realization and wildly disjunctive, can provide the conditions of irreducibility and downward causality, which are essential conditions of strong emergence. Based on the philosophical analysis of two methodological approaches, individualist and collectivist, it can be concluded that emergentist individualism suffers from the problem of how to explain downward causality and irreducibility, and reification collectivism faces the challenge of reification. The analysis of the problems faced by these two approaches leads us to three unresolved issues, which are realism, downward causality, and mechanism. individualist emergentists acknowledge the existence of emergent social characteristics, but despite this, they believe that these characteristics are not real but merely analytical constructs that require explanation based on individuals and their mutual actions. But collectivists argue that emergentism yields a categorical ontology and supports social realism. They accept the dependence of social characteristics on individuals, but claim that social entities and structures are ontologically independent. Individualists and collectivists both agree that some social characteristics are reducible; and others are irreducible due to their complexity; and the only way to recognize this is to engage in empirical studies of the mechanisms and temporal processes of "emergence" that create social characteristics. -/- NOVELTY The newness of this compact article is as follows: a) Presenting an interdisciplinary approach using the analysis of philosophy of cognitive sciences, including the philosophy of mind, neurobiology and psychology to formulate the issue of social emergence; b) Criticizing individualist and collectivist methodological approaches to the issue of social emergence and explaining the sufficiency and shortcomings of both in providing weak and strong emerging conditions; c) Explaining and categorizing the challenges facing methodological approaches in explaining the phenomenon of social emergence, in three categories: realism, downward causality, and mechanism. BIBLIOGRAPHY Beckermann, A., Flohr, H., & Kim, J. (eds.) (1992). Emergence or reduction? Essays on the prospects of nonreductive physicalism. Berlin: Walter de Gruyter. Bhaskar, R. (1979). The possibility of Naturalism. New York: Routledge. Bhaskar, R., Danermark, B. & Price, L. (2018). Interdisciplinarity and wellbeing: A critical realist general theory of interdisciplinarity. London and New York: Routledge. Blau, P.M. (1981). Introduction: diverse views of social structure and their common denominator. In Blau, P.M. & Merton, R.K. (eds.), Continuity in Structural Inquiry (pp. 1–23). Beverly Hills: Sage. Blau, P.M. (1987). Microprocess and macrostructure. In K.S. Cook (ed.), Social Exchange Theory (pp. 83–100). Newbury Park, CA: Sage. Brooks, R.A., & Maes, P. (eds). (1994). Artificial life IV; proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on the Synthesis and Simulation of Living Systems. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. Clark, A. (1997). Being there: Putting brain, body, and world together again. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Coleman, J. S. (1987). Microfoundations and macrosocial behavior. In: J. C. Alexander, B. Giesen, R. Munch, & Neil J. Smelser (Eds.). The Micro-Macro Link (pp. 153–73). Berkeley: University of California. Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of social theory. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Elster, J. (1985). Making sense of Marx. New York: Cambridge University Press. Fodor, J.A. (1974). Special sciences (Or: The disunity of science as a working hypothesis). Synthese, 28(2), 97–115. Fodor, J.A. (1989). Making mind matter more. Philosophical Topics, 17, 59-79. Giddens, A. (1984). The constitution of society: Outline of the theory of structuration. Berkeley: University of California Press. Hempel, C.G. (1965). Aspects of scientific explanation and other essays in the philosophy of science. New York: The Free Press. Horgan, T. (1993). From supervenience to superdupervenience: meeting the demands of a material world. Mind, 102, 555-586. Humphreys, P. (1997). How properties emerge”. Philosophy of Science, 64, 1-17. Kim, J. (1999). Making sense of emergence. Philosophical Studies, 95, 3–36. Kincaid, H. (1997). Individualism and the unity of science. New York: Rowman & Littlefield. Lewis, D.K. (1986). The plurality of worlds. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Nigel, G., & Conte, R. (eds.) (1995). Artificial societies; The computer simulation of social life. London: UCL Press. O’Connor, T. (1994). Emergent properties. American Philosophical Quarterly, 31, 91-104. Popper, K.R. (1968). Conjectures and refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. New York: Harper & Row. Sawyer, R. K. (2001). Emergence in sociology: contemporary philosophy of mind and some implications for sociological theory. American Journal of Sociology, 107, 551-585. Sawyer, R. K. (2004). The mechanisms of emergence. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 34, 260–282. Sawyer, R. K. (2005). Social emergence: societies as complex systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Sawyer, R.K. (2003). Nonreductive individualism: Part 2, Social causation. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 33, 203–224. Winch, P. (1993). The idea of a social science and its relation to philosophy‭ (SAMT, Trans.). Tehran, Iran: SAMT. (shrink)

The state of national economies development varies and is characterized by many indicators. Economically developed countries are known as doubtless leaders that are in progress and form political stability, social and economics standards, scientific and technical progress and determine future priorities. It is worth mentioning that the progressive development of national economies in conditions of globalization can take place only in case of the increase of their intellectualization level, through saturation of people`s life, economic relations and production by brain (...) activity, knowledge, creativity, innovation, culture, ethical considering of the historical heritage. The main aim of the research is national economies intellectualization evaluating in globalization conditions. In order to gain this aim, the following tasks were defined: to identify existing indices of the national economies intellectualization level evaluation, develop the authors’ methodological approach to the national economies intellectualization level, determine the areas of measurement results application. While conducting the research, systematic approach, the methods of analysis, synthesis, grouping, abstracting, generalization, imaginary experiment and grounding were used. In the modern world, there are a large number of indicators which characterize differences in intellectual state of the national economy. When comparing the state of national economies intellectualization, the problems arise with different number of countries, duplication of indicators, disproportionate number of the components of indicators, various years of publication, etc. Therefore, to ensure comparability, we choose four general indicators – the index of human development, the global innovation index, the global competitiveness index and the knowledge economy index. Using these indices, we do the research and determine the state of national economies intellectualization in the world economy. According to the calculated results, as of 2013, we have divided 190 national economies by level of intellectualization into five groups: countries with the highest (30 countries), high (30 (countries), low (30 countries), the lowest (35 countries) and the countries with uncertain state of intellectualization (65 countries). The leaders in the state of intellectualization are Switzerland, Sweden, The Netherlands, Finland and the USA. The countries with the highest level of intellectualization serve as an example to all other countries of the world. These countries are characterized by developed market economy; a dominant position in the international economy, which allows actively engaging own and imported resources in the economic turnover; the shift of the center of gravity of economic activity into the services sector and the dominance of service economy; the greatest exhaustion of sources and factors of industrial development; advanced post-industrial development. The economic policy of the first group of countries has a decisive influence on the state and dynamics of the global economy, defining the main directions of its scientific and technological development and structural adjustment. The average index of the national economy intellectualization (AINEI), calculated by the authors, shows the place of each country in the world community as to their intellectual capital. Considering the continued deployment of R&D progress, the growing role of high-tech production and the complexity of social and economic relations, AINEI can serve as a reliable indicator of the macroeconomic environment intellectualization state. Therefore, the following organizations, bodies and individuals can use the comparative results of this study: the international organizations while developing international economic development programs; the state authorities of the countries in foreign and domestic policy forming; companies that create innovative and investment policy; migrants, tourists and persons who perform professional and transit activity for the formation of human potential and capital; scientists and teachers who develop mechanisms of intellectualization. (shrink)

Economics: Beyond the Millennium contains articles by leading authorities in various fields of economic theory and econometrics, each of whom gives an account of the current state of the art in their own field and indicate the direction that they think it will take in the next ten years. The fields covered are grouped into three categories: the microfoundations of macroeconomics, where Malinvaud evaluates the theory of resource allocation and Hildenbrand examines the empirical content of economic thories; markets and and (...) organizations, where both Gabszewicz and D'Aspremont et al. look at imperfect competition and general equilibrium, Scotchmer and Thiess consider spatial economics, Ponssard the future of managerial economics, while Van Damme looks at the next stage of game theory; and econometrics, where Gourieroux reviews econometric modelling in general, Maravall looks at time series, Lubrand and Bauwens examine Bayesian analysis, and Blundell looks at the rapidly expanding area of microeconometrics. (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Reviewed by:Herman Daly’s Economics for a Full World: His Life and Ideas by Peter VictorJeroen Van Den Bergh (bio)Victor, Peter (2022). Herman Daly’s Economics for a Full World: His Life and Ideas. Routledge, Oxon UK and New York USA (ISBN: 978–0–367-55694-5).Herman Daly (1938–2022) spent a lifetime thinking about how to achieve a sustainable economy. In an inclusive biography, Canadian economist and environmental scientist Peter Victor discusses his ideas, critiques (...) and debates with others, while clarifying his motivations and struggles. Daly has greatly influenced others, as reflected by numerous prizes awarded to him. This influence is confirmed by original text boxes in the book that contain statements of many colleagues about his work and person, obtained through a questionnaire survey by the author.As a young man, Daly decided to study economics as he imagined it combined humanities and science. He was disappointed in it being less scientific than hoped, but his environmental concern motivated him to work on reestablishing the foundations of the field in environmental science and ethics. Daly is best known for his critique of economic growth and his alternative of the “steady-state economy.” He contributed, however, many other novel concepts and ideas during his lifetime, such as the ends-means spectrum, empty vs full world, uneconomic growth and optimal scale.Victor explains these ideas in a calm pace, showing a deep knowledge of Daly’s work. He, moreover, is able to connect it to ongoing sustainability research. He does all this in the course of thirteen chapters, covering Daly’s early life, education and career, his views on economics, his personal philosophy and the role of religion, his proposal for a steady-state economy, and his opinions on economic growth, population and migration, money and banking, and the perils of trade. [End Page 117]Ultimate endsMany consider Herman Daly to be a heterodox and even heretic economist. He associates himself with ecological economics, the field he co-founded. But while some of his ideas seem radical, many of his core proposals do not deviate substantially from mainstream economics. For instance, his “ultimate ends” concept is perfectly consistent with the broad notion of “welfare” in standard economics. In line with this, many welfare economists—such as Samuelson (1961), Mishan (1967), Hirsch (1976), Sen (1976), Scitovsky (1976) and Frank (1985)—have expressed themselves as critical of GDP (gross domestic product) dominance and growthmania (van den Bergh 2009). In fact, neoclassical economics is not married to economic growth—this is more the empirical side of macroeconomics. While Daly recognizes these subtleties, some of his followers do not.Daly sees his Protestant religion as delivering the ultimate ends, but Victor notes that this has not led to concrete suggestions. Ultimate ends based in Christian religion may be motivated by the promise of eternal (after)life, which in effect means gratifying selfish preferences. Instead, a humanistic perspective—which Daly also seems to embrace—would stress solidarity with future generations and a bioethical view of solidarity with other species. These distinct viewpoints, combined with diversity of human preferences and experiences, suggest that it will be difficult if not impossible for democratic societies to agree upon ultimate means.The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), a kind of greened or sustainable GDP metric, is Daly’s most concrete elaboration of ultimate means (Daly and Cobb 1989). For many OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, it indicates a stabilization of welfare, despite continued GDP growth (Lawn 2003; Posner and Costanza 2011). As clarified by Victor, The ISEW remains close to GDP, produces a monetary measure, has a simple and transparent calculation method, and received considerably attention from theoretical and empirical angles. In view of this, it may well represent the best candidate for a beyond-GDP metric that can replace the GDP. What urgently fails is an effective institutional procedure to achieve its widespread adoption (van den Bergh 2022).Religion, evolution and biodiversityDaly’s religious standpoint make him skeptical of the modern scientific worldview which regards the world to be governed by materialism and evolution, with no role for a higher purpose or an ultimate end. This led him... (shrink)

This research investigates the growing impact of virtual currencies, with a specific focus on how Bitcoin, a leading digital currency, influences gold prices. It delves into the evolving role of Bitcoin in the traditional financial sphere, examining its effect on gold, a classical asset and a benchmark of economic stability. Through this study, we aim to understand the nuances of this unique interaction and its implications for the broader financial landscape. This paper presents an in-depth case study that examines the (...) correlations and potential causal relationships between the volatility in virtual currency markets and gold price fluctuations, a traditional indicator of economic stability and a renowned safe-haven asset, with a particular focus on the period encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a range of econometric methods, including time-series analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, this research analyzes historical price data from the past decade, with a special emphasis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic alongside other key geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, to elucidate the interplay between these distinct asset classes. (shrink)

The government debt portfolio is usually the largest financial portfolio in the country. It often contains complex and risky financial structures and can generate significant risk to the state budget and the country’s financial stability. Therefore, governments are required to have sound risk management and sound public debt structures to limit exposure to market risk, debt financing or rolling risk, liquidity risk, credit, settlement and operational risk. In recent years, the debt market crises have highlighted the importance of sound public (...) debt management practices and related risks, and the need for an effective and well-developed domestic capital market. This may reduce the vulnerability of the economy to adverse economic and financial shocks. However, it is also important for the government to maintain a macroeconomic policy that ensures sound fiscal and monetary management. The aim of the research is to present the theoretical and practical aspects of extremely important issues such as public debt management and to indicate the most important implications for the financial stability of the country on the example of the Polish economy. The study uses a research method based on literature studies in the field of macroeconomics, economic policy and finance, as well as statistical analysis of the studied phenomenon. Results of research indicate that effective public debt management can reduce the economy’s vulnerability to financial threats, contribute to the financial stability of the country, maintain debt stability and protect the government’s reputation among investors. (shrink)

According to the modern widespread approaches to the nature of external debt and its effects on economic processes, debt financing is among the distinctive features of the liberalization-oriented world of nowadays. Accordingly, unrestricted capital flows signify orientation at macroeconomic balance, since under the conditions when administrative barriers are absent capital distribution is even and symmetric, enabling leveling of factor prices. Associated with these arguments is a claim that prices of goods and services do not indicate non-negligible fluctuations and a (...) financial system gains economic agents' confidence. This research addresses the issues of the phenomenon of external debt and provides an insight into the U.S. external debt and its effects on both the U.S. and world economy. The findings show that the U.S. external debt is of no considerable threat to the world economy in the short-term, since the peace of the world's economic leader's growth exceeds that of debt servicing expenditures. However, an economic decline may turn the status-quo upside down, since the country may face inability to raise enough funds in time to discharge its financial liabilities, especially to non-residents. (shrink)

The purpose of the study is to determine the relationship between the economic well-being of countries and their openness to external markets. The scientific novelty consists in the comparison of two groups of countries with different characteristics and identifying specific patterns of the impact of selected macroeconomic factors on GDP. The article presents an econometric analysis and contains regression equations for each state. Interpretation of the coefficients of the derived models makes it possible to estimate changes in GDP with (...) the change of indicators. As a result, it was revealed that export is the most stable and strongly influencing the economy of all countries macroeconomic factor, and the strength of influence depends on the level of development of the country. The stability of GDP in developing countries is largely achieved through the regulation of internal factors, and in developed countries through exports regulation. (shrink)

This research paper aims to investigate. the impact of inflation. on financial sector performance in Western. Balkan. countries. The topic was chosen considering the financial sector’s fundamental role and its. impact on sustainable economic growth. This impact is measured through the effect that macroeconomic determinants of financial. performance such. as inflation, GDP. growth, general government final consumption expenditure, trade, and the lending interest rate have on credit to private sector as a share of GDP and broad definition of money (...) as a ratio of GDP, which were used to proxy financial sector development. The data are provided by the World Bank as well as the Central. Banks. of the respective countries, for the period 2002–2021. The research methodology consists of different panel regression models such as OLS, OLS robust, Fixed effects, Random effects, and Generalized method of moments (GMM). Findings indicate that domestic credit to the private sector and inflation are positively correlated, whereas broad money and inflation are negatively correlated. (shrink)

With the rapid development of China's economy in recent decades, and the decentralization of the country's economic regulation and legal support, private financing has developed rapidly due to its simple, flexible and unique advantages. Some SMEs can solve it to some extent through private financing. The company's own financing issues have also helped the local financial market's effectiveness. Based on the “Yantai Private Financing Interest Rate Index,” this paper constructs a private financial risk index model from three perspectives of interest (...) rate risk, scale risk and credit risk, and conducts a case simulation analysis of the private financing risk index. The characteristic indicators of the early warning system are screened from the macro, micro and stability dimensions, and subjective and objective adjustment coefficients are set for each indicator from both subjective and objective perspectives. This article takes the Yantai Index as the representative of China's private financing interest rate index. Based on the term structure of Yantai's private lending rate, this paper studies its response to macroeconomic shocks and analyzes the information value it contains. And use the private financing interest rate index to build a financial risk monitoring model. Through the system transformation model, the article finds that there is a significant asymmetry in the response of private lending to macroeconomic shocks. When private lending rates are higher, inflation has a greater effect on interest rates; when private lending rates are lower, monetary policy has a stronger regulatory effect on private lending rates. In the data processing, the principal component analysis method and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model were established. Through the study of this article, it is concluded that the interest rate decreases with the increase of the term, and the risk comparison is performed for the 1-month period, 3-month period, June period, 1-year period, and more than 1-year. The risks in the previous period are greater, and the risks in the March and June periods are relatively small. This model can be used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value and its fluctuation in the historical risk market and historical equilibrium market, so as to determine the risk range of the comprehensive evaluation value. Thus, the early warning system is verified to be feasible. (shrink)

The objective of this research paper is to examine the impact of monetary policy conditions on bank risk-taking in the Western Balkan countries. The paper tries to identify if monetary policy conditions, especially money interest rates, may induce a greater appetite for bank risk-taking in the Western Balkan countries. The impact of macroeconomic and banking indicators on bank risk-taking will be examined, too. For this purpose, we apply pooled OLS techniques, Fixed and Random effects panel, and Hausman-Taylor Instrumental (...) IV model. The econometric results show a negative correlation between the monetary policy rate and bank risk-taking, rejecting the hypothesis that monetary policy rates indicate bank risk increase. However, expansive credit policies or loan portfolio growth have a positive impact on bank risk-taking in the Western Balkans. The study is original, and its findings will be of value to Central Banks and other policymakers in the Western Balkan countries. (shrink)

The present research is the first part of econometric study of the so called sponsored goods and looks at one of the most common types of such goods namely art products created by theaters, concert organizations and museums. The aim of the paper is to analyse the performance of Russian art organizations to find out to what extend the conditions of their functioning in post Soviet times under the development of market economy, democratization of leisure and changes in consumer preferences (...) influence their economic results. Could Russian theaters, museums and concert organizations be self- sufficient in market economy established in Russian in 1991-2010?The set up task determined the object of the study and the statistical data to be used-40 years time series performance indicators that include equal time intervals-1971-1990 for performing arts organizations and 1991-2010-for theaters, concert organizations and museums. The specifics of calculations presented in the article result from the very approach to the testing of cost disease. Its essence is to reveal the symptoms of this disease in art organizations taken as an element of economy as a whole rather than only as a part of cultural activities. Accordingly a new method of diagnostics of the cost disease is suggested that is based on development of specific indexes measuring the lag of labor productivity, advancing dynamics of wages and priority growth in prices for tickets in relation to the corresponding indexes of macroeconomic dynamics as well as determination of cost disease consequences-the deficit of income of providers of cultural goods. The implementation of such an approach allowed to construct three-dimensional space which coordinates describe the dynamics of performance results of art organizations. (shrink)

As a most important component of capital market, stock market has always been regarded as the “barometer” of macroeconomy. However, many researchers have found that the stock market is not always in the lead, especially for the emerging markets, and the leading role of different sector indices is also different for the corresponding sectors. From the perspective of a comparison between mature market and emerging market at sectoral level, this paper utilizes the thermal optimal method to examine the dynamic lead-lag (...) relationships between stock sector indices and macroeconomic variables for the USA and China. The results show that, for the US stock market, three sector indices including consumption, industry, and real estate have been leading the corresponding macroeconomic variables since 2013; for the Chinese stock market, the lead-lag relationships are different for these sectors. The real estate sector index and the industry sector index have been leading the corresponding macroeconomic variables since 2010, and the lead-lag relationship between the consumption sector index and the total retail sales is not always positive or negative, which means that the consumption sector index does not always lead the total retail sales. The empirical results confirm that the “barometer function” of immature stock market is still weak and easier to be disabled by factors such as irrational market sentiment. (shrink)