Financing guarantee is an important means and key link to solve the financing difficulties of small- and medium-size enterprises. However, while financial guarantees alleviate the financing difficulties of SMEs, the complex guarantee relationships also constitute a new channel for credit risk contagion in the financial guarantee network. In this paper, we construct a model of credit risk contagion process of guarantee network based on SEIR and analyse the equilibrium point and stability of the model. Then, we (...) find the threshold value of risk contagion and further simulate the SEIR model dynamically to analyse the influence of each parameter of the model. The results show that the risk of the financing guarantee network begins to be widely contagious only when risk contagion threshold is greater than 1, and the conversion rate of exposed enterprises, removal rate of infected enterprises, nodal enterprises degree, and risk contagion rate have significant effects on the changes of individual density of susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered enterprises. Combining the above findings, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to propose relevant countermeasures for credit risk control of financial guarantee network. (shrink)

There is no well-built theory on credit risk measurement and decision analysis for financial big data, and an effective and scientific evaluation system for them has not been formed. A review of them can contribute to grasping the abovementioned topics, understanding current issues, analyzing research problems, mastering research challenges, and predicting future research directions. Besides, this paper points out four research directions of credit risk measurement and decision analysis for financial big data. Moreover, this paper can (...) provide some guidance directions and insights for practitioners, researchers, financial institutions, and government departments who have an interest in complex decision-making in big data. (shrink)

In this note, we consider a Merton model for default risk, where the firm’s value is driven by a Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process.

Based on a unique data set on US direct microloans, we study the funding determinants of interest-free peer-to-peer crowdlending aimed at borrowers in the US. By performing logistic regressions on funding success and Tobit regressions on the reversed funding time, the existence of a social underwriting by a third-party trustee and information in the description texts fostering the investors’ trust are shown to be the main predictors of successful funding. Regarding social impact, the possibility to empower women and groups of (...) borrowers appeals to the investors, whereas empowerment of the family or community beyond the borrowers themselves appears to remain unappreciated. When examining the vulnerability of the borrowers as a predictor, the results manifest differences amongst the attitudes of the investors towards social impact. In the subsample of non-endorsed loans, the investors appear to prefer to support borrowers with an immigration background. In contrast, this is not the case with endorsed loans. (shrink)

We investigate the association between a wide range of community-level environmental, social, and governance (ESG) outcomes and the credit risk of U.S. municipal finance fixed-income securities. We develop a novel dataset of multiple ESG outcomes for U.S. counties and connect it to a 2001-2020 panel of municipal bonds issued within those counties. Overall, we find supportive evidence that collective increases in community-level ESG factors (i.e., ESG outcomes) are associated with reductions in credit risk for U.S. municipal (...) finance instruments over time. We theorize that these associations arise from variations in investor perceptions and manifested changes in fiscal health over time as a function of changing ESG outcomes. Post hoc analyses leveraging quasi-exogenous shocks to uncertainty, as well as connecting ESG outcomes to various measures of fiscal health at the county-year level, and credit ratings at the bond-year level, help validate this theory. Our research suggests that even socially agnostic investors should investigate the environmental and social performance of a municipality as part of their credit due diligence. (shrink)

In recent years, supply chain finance is exploited to solve the financing difficulties of small- and medium-sized enterprises. SME credit risk assessment is a critical part in the SCF system. The diffusion of SME credit risk may cause serious consequences, leading the whole supply chain finance system unstable and insecure. Compared with traditional credit risk assessment models, the supply chain relationship, credit condition of SME, and core enterprises should all be considered to rate (...) SME credit risk in SCF. Traditional methods mix all indicators from different index systems. They cannot give a quantitative result on how these index systems work. Furthermore, traditional credit risk assessment models are heavily dependent on the number of annotated SME data. However, it is implausible to accumulate enough credit risky SMEs in advance. In this paper, we propose an adaptive heterogenous multiview graph learning method to tackle the small sample size problem for SMEs’ credit risk forecasting. Three graphs are constructed by using indicators from supply chain operation, SME financial indicator, and nonfinancial indicator individually. All the graphs are integrated in an adaptive manner, providing a quantitative explanation on how the three parts cooperate. The experimental analysis shows that the proposed method has good performance for determining whether SME is risky or nonrisky in SCF. From the perspective of SCF, SME financing ability is still the main factor to determine the credit risk of SME. (shrink)

There is no doubt that a negative perception of financial risk and a lack of credit risk management adversely impact business growth and business owners’ wellbeing. Past studies suggest that most Nigerian traders have poor risk perceptions and manage risk poorly. A business coaching program within rational-emotive behavior therapy framework was evaluated in order to determine its effects on financial risk perception and credit risk management among Nigerian traders. This study used an (...) open-label parallel randomized control design. This 8-weeks coaching program had 60 traders in the REBT-based business coaching group and 59 traders in the control group. The mixed-model repeated measures ANOVA was utilized for analysis of the study data. Results show that relative to a control group, traders’ financial risk perception [F = 637.29, p < 0.001, ω2 = 0.69] and credit risk management [F = 795.51, p < 0.001, ω2 = 0.80] significantly improved after participating in REBT-based business coaching program. This study shows that REBT-based business coaching program is integral to increasing financial risk perception and credit risk management among Nigerian traders. This study contributes to the advancement of business coaching program within the rational-emotive behavior therapy framework for market traders, and its application in similar situations. The study considered the benefits of business coaching program for market traders from a developing country, which is a rarely studied group. It is highly recommended that professionals study the relationship between REBT-based business coaching and economic decision-making within various organizational contexts. (shrink)

Credit theorists claim to explain the incompatibility of luck and knowledge and also what makes knowledge valuable. If the theory works as well as they think, it accomplishes a lot. Unsurprisingly, however, some epistemologists remain unsure. Jennifer Lackey, for instance, proposes a dilemma that suggests credit theories are either too strong or too weak. Her criticism has been hard to overcome. This paper suggests a modified account of knowledge as credit for true belief that allows credit (...) theorists to better counter Lackey’s criticism. I call my version of credit theory Risk Sensitive Credit. Under my account, an agent deserves credit just in case she believes truly on account of her reasonably accurate epistemic risk assessment. This assessment need not include higher order beliefs or even enter into conscious thought. Recent work in cognitive science, for instance, suggests that our visual faculties, in the absence of our direct awareness, work in accordance with a risk sensitive framework. This research will be referenced to help explain the dynamics of barn facade Gettier cases. (shrink)

Using the promulgation of Green Credit Guidelines in China as the research setting, this paper exploits a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of green credit policy on the stock price crash risk of heavy-polluting firms. The results show that green credit policy significantly increases the risk of stock price crash of heavy-polluting firms. Such impact is transmitted through increased financial constraints and reduced information transparency. In addition, we find that the impact of green (...) class='Hi'>credit policy on the stock price crash risk is more pronounced in firms with weak external governance and a small size. Our findings provide policy implications for mitigating corporate risks and promoting corporate sustainability. (shrink)

There is a commonly made distinction between two types of scientists: risk-taking, trailblazing mavericks and detail-oriented followers. A number of recent papers have discussed the question what a desirable mixture of mavericks and followers looks like. Answering this question is most useful if a scientific community can be steered toward such a desirable mixture. One attractive route is through credit incentives: manipulating rewards so that reward-seeking scientists are likely to form the desired mixture of their own accord. Here (...) I argue that this idea is less straightforward than it may seem. Interpreting mavericks as scientists who prioritize rewards over speed and risk, I show in a deliberatively simple model that there is a fixed mixture which is not particularly likely to be desirable and which credit incentives cannot alter. I consider a way around this result, but this has some major drawbacks. I conclude that credit incentives are not as promising a way to create a desirable mixture of mavericks and followers as one might have thought. (shrink)

In recent years, scholars in the social sciences and humanities have turned their attention to how the rise of digital technologies is reshaping political life in contemporary society. Here, we analyze this issue by distinguishing between two classification technologies typical of pre-digital and digital eras that differently constitute the relationship between individuals and groups. In class-based systems, characteristic of the pre-digital era, one’s status as an individual is gained through membership in a group in which salient social identities are shared (...) in common with other group members. In attribute-based systems, characteristic of the digital era, one’s status as an individual is determined by virtue of possession of a set of attributes that need not be shared with others. We argue that differences between these two types of classification technologies have important implications for how persons attach (or fail to attach) to groups, and therefore what kinds of political mobilization are possible. We illustrate this argument by examining contention over the use of gender as a variable in the pricing of risk in insurance and credit – two markets in which individuals directly encounter class-based and attribute-based systems of classification, respectively. (shrink)

We take a fresh look at the concerns about credit card pricing and empirically investigate whether the Credit CARD Act of 2009 has been successful in addressing those concerns. The rational choice theory of credit card pricing, which posits that issuers use back-end fees to adjust the price of credit to reflect new information about borrowers’ credit risk, predicts that issuers will respond to the Act by using alternative ways to price risk. In (...) contrast, the behavioral economics theory, which posits that issuers use back-end fees because they are not salient to consumers, predicts that issuers will respond by increasing unregulated non-salient prices. If the market is competitive, we argue that the CARD Act should also result in increases in some salient, up-front prices. But we show that if issuers have market power, reductions in non-salient fees may not result in concomitant increases in salient charges. We test these predictions using two datasets on credit card contract terms before and after the CARD Act rules went into effect. We find that the rules have substantially reduced the back-end fees directly regulated by the Act, including late fees and over-the-limit fees. However, unregulated contract terms, such as annual fees and purchase interest rates, have changed little. Post-CARD Act, consumers continue to face high long-term prices and low short-term prices, and imperfectly rational consumers still find it difficult to understand the cost of credit card borrowing. We thus consider potential improvements to the regulatory framework. We argue that improved disclosures that present to consumers the aggregate cost of credit under the contract, based on information about the borrower’s likely use of credit, would improve consumer outcomes. Furthermore, we suggest that regulators, rather than focusing on prices that are “too high,” should consider limiting the ability of issuers to charge introductory teaser interest rates that are in a sense “too low. (shrink)

This article critically evaluates and contests the flagship benefit delivery system Universal Credit for lone mothers by focusing on some of the ethical challenges it poses, as well as some key implications it holds for social work with lone mothers and their children. Universal Credit was first introduced in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008, and echoes conditionality-based welfare policies adopted by neoliberal governments internationally on the assumption that paid employment offers a route out of poverty for citizens. (...) However, research evidence suggests that the risks of conditionality polices for lone parents can often include increased poverty, a deterioration in mental health or even destitution posed by paternalistic sanctions or precarious low-paid employment, which can undermine parenting capacities and children’s well-being. The article also critically appraises and questions challenges posed by an increased reliance upon contractual ethics by governments, alongside the wider behaviour-modifying policies of the workfare-orientated state. This includes that working-class lone mothers can erroneously be stigmatised as representing a morally challenged dependent burden through activation policies and risk-averse social work practices. (shrink)

This study revisits the relation between corporate performance and corporate social responsibility in the context of a major shift in firms’ credit risk status. Relying on corporate credit rating as a performance indicator, we examine whether firms under the scrutiny of rating agencies trade-off CSR engagement for credit quality improvement. To explore whether firms adjust their CSR engagement after a focal rating change, we focus on the investment–speculative grade threshold because of its importance in accessing the (...) public debt market. We find that firms that lose the investment grade rating subsequently increase CSR engagement. We also uncover that improving CSR engagement helps firms restore their credit ratings ex post. Our findings support the view of CSR engagement as a valuable risk management strategy. (shrink)

The ethical practices of credit rating agencies, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis, have been subject to extensive analysis by economists, ethicists, and policymakers. We raise a novel issue facing CRAs that has to do with a problem concerning the transmission of epistemic status of ratings from CRAs to the beneficiaries of the ratings, and use it to provide a new challenge for regulators. Building on recent work in philosophy, we argue that since CRAs have different stakes than the (...) beneficiaries of the ratings in the ratings being accurate, what counts as knowledge concerning credit risk for a CRA may not count as knowledge for the beneficiary. Further, as it stands, many institutional investors are bound by law to make some of their investment decisions dependent on the ratings of officially recognized CRAs. We argue that the observation that the epistemic status of ratings does not transmit from CRAs to beneficiaries makes salient a new challenge for those who think current regulation regarding the CRAs is prudentially justified, namely, to show that the harm caused by acting on a rating that does not have epistemic status for beneficiaries is compensated by the benefit from them acting on a CRA rating that does have epistemic status for the CRA. Unlike most other commentators, therefore, we offer a defeasible reason to drop references to CRAs in prudential regulation of the financial industry. (shrink)

Vietnam’s forests are at risk - carbon offset schemes could be the best chance of saving them, say Dr. Quan-Hoang Vuong and Minh-Hoang Nguyen. The value of forests is deeply ingrained in Vietnamese culture. Rừng vàng, biển bạc” [“forests of gold and seas of silver”] is both a metaphor for Vietnam, and a description of its natural wealth. The phrase is everywhere, from political speeches to daily conversation, as is Nhất phá sơn lâm, nhì đâm hà bá [“the worst (...) crime is to destroy the mountains and forests, the second worst is to kill the river”]. Deforestation is a Vietnamese taboo. (shrink)

This chapter argues for deregulation of the credit-rating market. Credit-rating agencies are supposed to contribute to the informational needs of investors trading bonds. They provide ratings of debt issued by corporations and governments, as well as of structured debt instruments (e.g. mortgage-backed securities). As many academics, regulators, and commentators have pointed out, the ratings of structured instruments turned out to be highly inaccurate, and, as a result, they have argued for tighter regulation of the industry. This chapter shows, (...) however, that the role of credit-rating agencies in achieving justice in finance is not as great as these commentators believe. It therefore argues instead for deregulation. Since the 1930s, lawgivers have unjustifiably elevated the rating agencies into official, legally binding sources of information concerning credit risk, thereby unjustifiably causing many institutional investors to outsource their epistemic responsibilities, that is, their responsibility to investigate credit risk themselves. (shrink)

ABSTRACT Though accused by critics of helping to cause the current financial crisis, credit‐default swaps are blameless. The accusation is understandable, however, given misunderstandings about how a credit‐default swap actually works. A careful look into its mechanism shows that it is not only simpler than thought, but that it is also vital to keeping the financial system strong by enabling financial institutions to better manage their risks. The risk taken on in a credit‐default swap (CDS) is (...) no different from the risk of making the underlying loan. CDSs allow risks to be spread more widely instead of being concentrated at vulnerable points, but they do not add to the total amount of risk. (shrink)

This article examines the epistemology of risk assessment in the context of financial modelling for the purposes of making loan underwriting decisions. A financing request for a company in the paper and pulp industry is considered in some detail. The paper and pulp industry was chosen because it is subject to some specific risks that have been identified and studied by bankers, investors and managers of paper and pulp companies and certain features of the industry enable analysts to quantify (...) the impact of specific risk events of a given dimension on a company's future financial performance. While companies in other industries may be subject to similar risk factors, the impact of risk events may be more difficult to gauge in those industries. The ability of financial analysts to model the impact of a risk event, and hence quantify a credit risk, increases the predictive accuracy of the model. I argue that bankers and regulators should recognise the uncertainty associated with unquantifiable credit risk in financial models, and they should view this uncertainty as a credit risk factor in and of itself. Evaluating the relative degree to which credit risk is quantifiable in financial models is a potentially significant yet largely unrecognised tool for credit risk management. I consider some possible applications of this assessment tool for managing risk within the banking industry. (shrink)

This paper contends that Marx develops in Volume III of Capital an incisive conceptual framework in which excessive credit creation, indebtedness and speculation play a critical and growing role in the reproduction of social capital on an extended basis; however, given the decentralised and anarchic nature of capitalist production, the credit system does so in a highly erratic and contradictory manner which only postpones the inevitable day of reckoning. The paper also highlights Marx's relatively neglected but highly important (...) analysis of the separation of ownership from management in the advanced capitalism of his day, England, and its modern-day implications for excessive risk-taking and debt-fuelled speculation up until the eve of the crash. More importantly, the paper argues that in Volumes II and III, Marx implicitly connected the expanding role of credit (which he associated with the development of capitalism) to a significant reduction in the turnover period of capital, thereby boosting the rate of surplus-value, and countering in a highly erratic and contradictory manner, the fall in the rate of profit. The growing role of credit has been relatively ignored in the Marxian literature as an important counteracting factor to the law of the declining rate of profit. It is not mentioned at all by Marx in his famous Chapter XIV, Vol. III of Capital where he discusses other important counteracting forces to the falling rate of profit, nor by Engels (in this particular context) who edited both Volumes II and III. (shrink)

We provide insight into how firms’ trade credit decisions respond to the coevolution of business ethics practices, technological innovation, and institutional reform for firms located in pilot cities of China’s social credit reform. The reform implements an external monitoring mechanism that potentially shifts the business ethics frontier by punishing or rewarding certain (un)ethical credit behaviors. Following the reform, pilot city firms enjoy greater access to trade credit financing. Three plausible channels include reduced default risk, improved (...) information quality, and enhanced legal protection. Suppliers provide more credit to young, small, private, politically unconnected firms, and those with geographically distant suppliers. Finally, we illustrate how increased access to trade credit translates into tangible strategic and performance benefits. Overall, this study underscores the importance of aligning business ethics practices with evolving societal values and technological advancements to facilitate companies’ willingness to provide trade credit within emerging markets. (shrink)

Elizabeth Anderson exalts the transition from the aristocratic to the modern ethic of debt as one of the most significant cultural achievements of capitalism. Whereas the debitor was once forced to compromise his liberty, dignity, and equality, today the rights and freedoms of insolvents are legally protected, and disadvantaged members of the community can readily obtain credit without personal supplication. Anderson’s intuition was, until recently, widely shared. Then came the financial crisis of 2007-08 and the ensuing global recession, triggered (...) by mass defaults among “sub-prime” borrowers. Many had entered the mortgage market with no proof of income, no assets behind them, no down-payment, a chequered credit history, and a generally reduced repayment capacity. Suddenly a flurry of criticism was unleashed against the lowering of credit standards and the government programs which pressured lenders to service the poor. My aim in this paper is not to assess the democratization of credit from the point of view of economic efficiency or political prudence, but rather to provide a much needed ethical appraisal. Any number of reasons might be advanced for why a particular government policy is morally objectionable. I will concentrate on the least controversial reason conceivable: the policy violates the rights of citizens. Whether this is true of government-driven credit-democratization - specifically, whether it violates the rights of the lenders compelled to act as agents of the policy, the rights of the third parties exposed to the risks associated with the expansion of credit markets, or both – is the question that I take up here. (shrink)

Within the banking community, the argument about sustainability and profitability tends to be inversely related. Our research suggests this does not need to be strictly the case. We present a credit score system based on sustainability issues, which is used as criteria to improve financial institutions’ lending policies. The Sustainability Credit Score System is based on the analytic hierarchy process methodology. Its first implementation is on the agricultural industry in Brazil. Three different firm development paths are identified: business (...) as usual, sustainable business, and future sustainable business. The following six dimensions are present in the SCSS: economic growth, environmental protection, social progress, socio-economic development, eco-efficiency, and socio-environmental development. The results suggest that sustainability is not inversely related to profit either from a short- or long-term perspective. The SCSS is related to the Equator Principles, but its application is not driven to project financing. It also deals with short- and long-term risks and opportunities, instead of short-term sustainability impacts. (shrink)

The rapid development of credit default swap market has changed the manner of credit risk management of banks to some extent and has had a new influence on the bank-enterprise credit model. In this study, the credit financing process of credit risk in small- and medium-sized enterprises gathers within a bank, which makes it difficult for SMEs to raise funds. On the basis of the perspective of CDS, we construct an incentive game model (...) of bank-enterprise credit behavior and analyze the influence mechanism of the credit financing of SMEs on CDS contract coupon rate, CDS payout ratio, bank-enterprise credit effort, and loan recovery rate when considering CDS. The result shows that the CDS contract leads to insufficient supervision after a bank loan, the moral hazard of the SMEs rises, and the probability of credit default events increases. In addition, in view of CDS, the SMEs can access more credit funds. (shrink)

We study the effect of scarcity on decision making by low income Swedes. We exploit the random assignment of welfare payments to study their borrowing decisions within the pawn and mainstream credit market. We document that higher educated borrowers borrow less frequently and choose lower loan to value ratios when their budget constraints are exogenously tighter. In contrast, low-educated borrowers do not respond to temporary elevated levels of scarcity. This lack of response translates into a significantly higher probability to (...) default and an 11.6% increase in borrowing cost. We show that a difference in access to liquidity and/or buffer stocks cannot explain our results. Instead a framework, where the awareness of self-control problems is positively correlated with education can explain that high-educated consumers choose a lower LTV as a commitment device to increase their likelihood to repay. Analogously, low-educated with less awareness of their future self-control problems, do not tie themselves to the mast and thus ignore the consequences of their credit decisions when focusing on solving acute liquidity problems. Our findings highlight that increased levels of scarcity risk reinforcing the conditions of poverty through overborrowing. (shrink)

Racial capitalism depends on the reproduction of an existing racialized economic order. In this article, I argue that the disavowal of past injustice is a central way in which this reproduction is ensured and that market-based forms of knowledge production, such as for-profit predictive practices, play a crucial role in facilitating this disavowal. Recent debates about the fairness of algorithms, data justice, and predictive policing have intensified long-standing controversies, both popular and academic, about the way in which statistical and financial (...) modes of accounting and predicting articulate, represent and produce ascriptive categories of hierarchically ordered social difference, and reproduce unjust social hierarchies and inequalities. These debates have productively problematized the racial lives of seemingly apolitical predictive technologies and demanded the re-politicization of predictive practices. What has been missing from these debates so far, however, is a more explicit engagement with ways in which anti-racist movements and activists themselves have contested the entanglements of prediction and race making. I turn to a recent prominent example, namely the contestation over racial discrepancies in subprime lending to examine how fair lending activists have conceptualized and troubled the reproduction of a racialized economic order through for-profit predictive practices in the decade before the Great Financial Crisis. I situate this particular example in the broader historical and political context of politicizing prediction that first emerged with the ascendancy of a liberal, individualist-proprietary conception of risk, and the political problem space to which this has given rise. My analysis shows that actuarial conceptions of fairness continue to reverberate in anti-racist contestations of for-profit predictive practices, and that they tend to marginalize and undercut more radical strands of critique of the racialization of financial markets. Insofar as these modalities of contestation implicitly reproduce a liberal, proprietary-individualist conception of risk, I argue, they fail to effectively challenge the quasi-alchemical transformation of injustice into personal responsibility, and thus contribute to the disavowal of past injustice. (shrink)

The opening contribution to this special edition on “The Truth of Stiegler” tests the claim that the more Bernard Stiegler develops his analysis of the catastrophic collapse of society, the further he risks departure from the philosophical rigor of his earliest ideas on the technical constitution of “intermittently not-inhuman” (“noetic”) life. His diagnoses of the collapse of trust revolve around a critique of misplaced faith () in computational capitalism’s pursuit of certainty, but are arguably themselves undermined by Stiegler’s dogmatic certainty (...) in his own arguments. We can make more sense of the apparent inconsistency by extending Stiegler’s ideas on exhaustion and the disintegration of the public sphere to show how a surfeit of certainty gives rise to a defensive posture that complicates his insistence on the therapeutic value of truth and openness. (shrink)

In this paper we examine some of the economic and ethical consequences of different credit market regulations, including usury laws, complete prohibition of interest and providing ease to the borrower upon default. The references to these credit market regulations can be found in many religious and moral philosophy texts. We first examine the effectiveness of these regulations in deterring exploitative lending by developing a model that shows lending can be regulated through either act-based or harm-based regulations. We show (...) that act-based regulations which comprise usury laws and complete prohibition of interest deter lenders more than harm-based regulations which constitute bankruptcy laws. We then analyze that while the regulations may deter certain forms of lending behavior, they may also create certain externalities by contributing towards inequity and societal risk. We propose that a regulator’s choice of implementing credit market regulations maybe dependent on her ethical commitment towards growth and reduction of inequity. We suggest the usury laws are more ethical than bankruptcy laws; however, discouraging the use of debt contracts through prohibition of interest and encouraging the use of risk sharing contracts maybe the most ethical way to regulate the credit markets. (shrink)

Households and banks have increasingly displaced non-financial businesses and governments as the primary debtors in modern capitalist economies, resulting in more severe economic cycles, increased inequality, and external macroeconomic imbalances. Yet while the trend is nearly universal among developed economies, its intensity varies a great deal from country to country. This article highlights the common international causes behind the global expansion of household and financial sector debt; the divergent national approaches to household credit that cause household and financial sector (...) indebtedness to vary from country to country; and the likely causes of these disparate approaches. National approaches to interest rate restrictions, property transfer taxation, high loan-to-value mortgages, mortgage interest taxation, and secondary markets for consumer debt can either encourage or mitigate household and financial sector borrowing. Whether a country encourages or mitigates such credit is determined by an idiosyncratic mix of institutional, political, and ideational factors. Especially important are the size of domestic pension funds, banks’ preferred business models, the political power of financial firms, and whether policymakers are more sensitive to the gains promised by a credit-fueled expansion or to the risks posed by an overleveraged collapse. (shrink)

The author identifies the major micro-, meso-, and macro-level financial risk shifting factors that contributed to the Great Global Recession and how the absence of a compelling moral vision of responsible financial risk management perpetuated the economic crisis and undermined the recovery by blind reliance upon insufficiently accountable bailouts. The author offers a new theoretical model of Sustainable Stakeholder Capitalism by exercising moral imagination which inclusively and moderately balances four multi-level factors: types of capitalism, moral theories, human nature (...) drives, and credit risk profiles. Finally, the author recommends micro-, meso-, and macro-level practical reforms to prevent a recurrence of the current economic freefall, to re-create systemic global financial institution integrity, and to promote responsible risk management for sustainable global prosperity for current and future generations. (shrink)

This article investigates the nexus between bank-specific risks and the financial stability of the banks for a panel data set of 15 scheduled banks in Pakistan over a 12-year period from 2009 to 2020. Using the fixed-effect model, the study result shows that bank-specific risks, i.e., credit risk and liquidity risk are detrimental to bank stability, whereas funding risk has no significant impact on bank stability. Besides these, bank size has also a negative impact on bank (...) stability, whereas the return on assets revealed a positive influence. To ensure stability, bank management should establish policies that confirm secure loan granting and timely reimbursement from customers to minimize the credit risk. Besides this, management should keenly observe the liquidity position and should also effectively mobilize the customer deposits to attain financial stability. (shrink)

Recent research suggests that many microfinance institutions increasingly focus on financial performance at the expense of the social component of their dual objectives. Existing studies typically assume that capital providers and managers mainly drive this so-called mission drift. In this study, we investigate whether ‘personal mission drift’ at the credit officer level can further explain the reduced emphasis on poorer clients among microfinance institutions. We present both qualitative and quantitative evidence that more experienced credit officers tend to serve (...) fewer vulnerable clients. Specifically, we show that all else being equal, credit officer experience is negatively correlated with the provision of small loans, loans to young clients, and loans to clients with disabilities. Our qualitative analysis suggests that perceived client risk and preferences for increased time efficiency mainly drive more experienced credit officers’ relative neglect of more vulnerable clients. This drift appears to be reinforced by the industry’s incentive schemes. Therefore, credit officer incentives and training should be designed to prevent this mission drift, which is observed at the microfinance institution level but is actually initiated at the credit officer level. (shrink)

With the rapid development of China's economy in recent decades, and the decentralization of the country's economic regulation and legal support, private financing has developed rapidly due to its simple, flexible and unique advantages. Some SMEs can solve it to some extent through private financing. The company's own financing issues have also helped the local financial market's effectiveness. Based on the “Yantai Private Financing Interest Rate Index,” this paper constructs a private financial risk index model from three perspectives of (...) interest rate risk, scale risk and credit risk, and conducts a case simulation analysis of the private financing risk index. The characteristic indicators of the early warning system are screened from the macro, micro and stability dimensions, and subjective and objective adjustment coefficients are set for each indicator from both subjective and objective perspectives. This article takes the Yantai Index as the representative of China's private financing interest rate index. Based on the term structure of Yantai's private lending rate, this paper studies its response to macroeconomic shocks and analyzes the information value it contains. And use the private financing interest rate index to build a financial risk monitoring model. Through the system transformation model, the article finds that there is a significant asymmetry in the response of private lending to macroeconomic shocks. When private lending rates are higher, inflation has a greater effect on interest rates; when private lending rates are lower, monetary policy has a stronger regulatory effect on private lending rates. In the data processing, the principal component analysis method and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model were established. Through the study of this article, it is concluded that the interest rate decreases with the increase of the term, and the risk comparison is performed for the 1-month period, 3-month period, June period, 1-year period, and more than 1-year. The risks in the previous period are greater, and the risks in the March and June periods are relatively small. This model can be used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value and its fluctuation in the historical risk market and historical equilibrium market, so as to determine the risk range of the comprehensive evaluation value. Thus, the early warning system is verified to be feasible. (shrink)

This paper aims to explore whether the usage of credit cards has peer effects in rural areas of China. The results suggest that the usage of credit cards will be affected by the behavior of other farmers; namely, the usage of credit cards has peer effects in rural areas. We also verify that women, older, and low-academic farmers show stronger peer effects. The results emphasize that, compared with the mass farmers and vulnerable farmers, the usage of elite (...) farmers is more likely to affect the same behaviors of other farmers. Our study contributes to prior literature by giving empirical insights into the consequences of peer effects on the credit card usage of farmers, which conduces to a better understanding of the financial decision-making of farmers. The research may provide a practical implication for the optimal design of policy interventions. On the one hand, banks and other financial institutions can promote innovative financial products in rural areas with the help of peer effects; on the other hand, regulators can regulate farmers’ wrong financial behaviors by the social multiplier of peer effects to reduce systemic risks in rural finance. (shrink)

This article documents the response of cooperative institutions that were required to adhere to new capital adequacy regulations traditionally geared for profit-maximising organisations. Using data from the Australian credit union industry, we demonstrate that the cooperative philosophy and internal corporate governance structure of cooperatives will lead management to increase capital adequacy ratios through the application of accounting window dressing techniques. This is opposite to the intended purpose of template regulation aimed at efficiently increasing operating margins and lowering risk. (...) Our results raise several debatable issues regarding the ethics of accounting management and the imposition of one-shoe-fits-all external regulation. (shrink)

Supply chain financing guaranteed by third-party logistics firms is an effective way to solve the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. Studies have explored factors that affect the willingness of supply chain financial credit providers under guarantee of 3PL firms. However, whether the scale of 3PL firms will affect the bank’s credit decision has not been studied, as well as the neural processing of credit decisions. To clarify these issues, this study extracted behavioral and event-related potentials (...) data when participants performed a selection task of judging whether to grant credit to guaranteed financing-seeking enterprises according to the large or small scale of the 3PL guaranteeing firms. The behavioral results showed that under the condition of a large-scale 3PL guaranteeing firm, the willingness to provide credit to SMEs was higher than that under the condition of a small-scale 3PL guaranteeing firm. This finding indicates there was credit scale discrimination against 3PL guaranteeing firms in supply chain finance. The ERP results showed that compared with the condition of a large-scale 3PL guaranteeing firm, a greater N2 amplitude was induced under the condition of a small-scale 3PL guaranteeing firm, which indicated that credit decision makers experienced greater perceived risk and more decision-making conflict. In contrast, a larger LPP amplitude was detected under the condition of a large-scale 3PL guaranteeing firm, which indicated that large-scale 3PL guaranteeing firms received more positive comments and more positive emotions from credit decision makers than small-scale 3PL guaranteeing firms. Based on these results, this study reveals the cognition process of credit decision makers regarding the impact of the 3PL guaranteeing firm scale on the willingness to provide credit in supply chain finance and explains the theory of credit scale discrimination from the perspective of decision neuroscience. (shrink)

The issues of the optimum rate between risk and profitability of bank business have been investigated. The bank operation peculiarities in risk and uncertain conditions are studied. There has been revealed a matter of risk as bank and economic term, it has been presented interlink between various risks and the necessity to improve the managerial process by bank credit risk has been justified. Practical algorithms for solving problems on possible bank credit risks prognosis have (...) been considered and there has been justified the reasonability of their using by banks at practical assessment of creditability of a borrower. A situational simulation of the part of bank's overdue loan debts under different conditions was carried out. The variants of possible developments of bank's credit portfolio during financial crisis were forecasted using conventional examples. According to the calculation banks have been offered to develop their own credit strategy by simulating various situations choosing the most convenient as to risk value as well as to minimize their credit risks and improving an assessment of creditability of borrowers in addition to assessment models, developed by a bank, well-known assessment models of the bankruptcy probabilities, which, by comparing all of them, give the clear picture of possible financial deterioration in future and to use A-calculation method which is based considering subjective factors which, not less than objective ones, can indicate the risk of the loan debts. (shrink)

Systemic financial risk is one of the most significant collective action problems facing societies. The Great Recession brought attention to a tragedy of the commons in capital markets, in which market participants, from the first-time homebuyer to Wall Street financiers, acted in ways beneficial to themselves individually, but which together caused substantial collective harm. Two kinds of risk are at play in complex chains of transactions in financial markets: ordinary market risk and systemic risk. Two moral (...) questions are relevant in such cases. First, from the standpoint of interactional morality, does a person have a moral duty to avoid risk of harm to others if their financial transactions contribute in some way, however small, to the loss or harm? This article identifies the conditions in which persons are morally responsible in such cases. Second, from the standpoint of institutional morality, how should society distribute the risk of harm associated with massively complex financial markets? This question is considered in the context of the home mortgage credit market. Luck egalitarianism, in particular a Dworkinian insurance scheme to allocate risks and resources relating to mortgage credit and private home ownership, offers substantial promise. (shrink)

This paper argues that some of the major theories in current business ethics fail to provide an adequate account of moral responsibility for the creation of systemic financial risk. Using the trading of credit default swaps (CDS) during the 2008 financial crisis as a case study, I will formulate three challenges that these theories must address: the problem of risk imposition, the problem of unstructured collective harm and the problem of limited knowledge. These challenges will be used (...) to work out key shortcomings of stakeholder approaches and Integrative Social Contracts Theory. I will argue that pluralist connection models used in political theory can help to overcome these shortcomings. Adopting an approach based on these models shows that financial institutions incur obligations in five main areas: managing their own risk profile; remedying some of the harms caused by financial crises; supporting the development of better epistemic methods; curbing the transmission and amplification of initial losses; and instigating structural reforms. (shrink)

Amidst the climate of crisis surrounding the rise in opioid-related overdose in the USA, early in 2019, Google and Deloitte launched ‘Opioid360’. Here came a platform combining browser histories, credit, insurance, social media, and traditional survey data to sell the service of risk calculation in population health. Opioid360's approach to automating risk calculation not only promised to identify persons ‘at risk’ of opioid dependence, but also paved the way for broader applications anticipating common chronic diseases and (...) coordinating logistical operations involved in pandemic response. Beginning with this experimental platform, this paper develops an analysis of the Big Data mode of risk calculation - an epistemological and political shift that involves technology companies, investors, insurers, governments, and public health institutions. The analysis focuses on the re-emergence of ‘social determinants of health’ in the rhetoric accompanying novel analytic platforms that estimate, calculate, and compute individual health risks. While the treatment of SDOH has always been a site of political contestation within the discipline of public health, powerful interests are crystallising around the concept and instrumentalising it in platforms that sell algorithmic prediction. Silicon Valley's breed of asset-oriented technoscience appears not only to be amplifying the behaviouralist elements of public health. Among the stakes of the Big Data mode is the paradoxical retreat from changing social conditions that contribute to the prevalence of health and illness in populations; and instead, the promotion of an apparatus for pricing and exchanging individual risk or excluding from services those who bear risk most acutely. (shrink)

This article tries to seek a solution to the problem of NPA in the small scale industries under the present circumstances of banking and insurance working together under the same roof. What is stressed in this article is the pressing need of the small-scale entrepreneur for becoming aware and educated in modern business management holding a professional attitude toward rational decision-making and banks have to facilitate that process as a part of the credit policy sold by them.

The main research purpose of this article is to sort out consumer information without specific personal data and use the target company’s neural network risk control decision model which is based on the risk scoring trajectory. We find the main interpretation variables, and then verify the direction and extent of the target’s influence to verify empirical results and help the target company make a correct decision analysis on the credit applicants’ loans. The final empirical results show that (...) the analysis results of the minimum square method and the analysis results of the truncated regression model can be found: the gender, population identity characteristics, consumer performance capabilities, consumer risk of trust, consumer preferences, consumer behavior characteristics, behavioral characteristics, number of financial institutions the consumer have applied for loans, credit litigation, and loan period were the nine main explanatory variables affecting the composite score. Regarding the influence of each variable on the comprehensive score: the impact of four index variables such as identity characteristics, contract performance ability, consumption preference, and behavioral characteristics on the comprehensive score is positive; it means that with higher identity feature score, contract performance ability, consumer preference score, and behavioral characteristic score, the comprehensive score increases. (shrink)

The objective of this research paper is to examine the impact of monetary policy conditions on bank risk-taking in the Western Balkan countries. The paper tries to identify if monetary policy conditions, especially money interest rates, may induce a greater appetite for bank risk-taking in the Western Balkan countries. The impact of macroeconomic and banking indicators on bank risk-taking will be examined, too. For this purpose, we apply pooled OLS techniques, Fixed and Random effects panel, and Hausman-Taylor (...) Instrumental IV model. The econometric results show a negative correlation between the monetary policy rate and bank risk-taking, rejecting the hypothesis that monetary policy rates indicate bank risk increase. However, expansive credit policies or loan portfolio growth have a positive impact on bank risk-taking in the Western Balkans. The study is original, and its findings will be of value to Central Banks and other policymakers in the Western Balkan countries. (shrink)

Can we measure and predict character with predictive analytics so a business can better assess, ideally objectively, whether to lend money or extend credit to that person, beyond current objective measures of credit scores and standard financial metrics like solvency and debt ratios? We and the analysts probably do not know enough about character to try to measure it, though it might be more useful to measure and predict a person’s temperance and prudence as virtues, or self-control as (...) psychology, or sense of obligation, particularly a moral commitment or sense of duty to honor a contract and re-pay a loan. The pervasive data surveillance of people that goes with “big data” and predictive analytics is not only an invasion of privacy in general, but an impairment of the aspect of privacy called autonomy that will constrict and alter a person’s choices and development of self. (shrink)