“Evidence” in the form of data collected and analysis thereof is fundamental to medicine, health and science. In this paper, we discuss the “evidence-based” aspect of evidence-based medicine in terms of statistical inference, acknowledging that this latter field of statistical inference often also goes by various near-synonymous names—such as inductive inference (amongst philosophers), econometrics (amongst economists), machine learning (amongst computer scientists) and, in more recent times, data mining (in some circles). Three central issues to this discussion of “evidence-based” are (i) (...) whether or not the statistical analysis can and/or should be objective and/or whether or not (subjective) prior knowledge can and/or should be incorporated, (ii) whether or not the analysis should be invariant to the framing of the problem (e.g. does it matter whether we analyse the ratio of proportions of morbidity to non-morbidity rather than simply the proportion of morbidity?), and (iii) whether or not, as we get more and more data, our analysis should be able to converge arbitrarily closely to the process which is generating our observed data. For many problems of data analysis, it would appear that desiderata (ii) and (iii) above require us to invoke at least some form of subjective (Bayesian) prior knowledge. This sits uncomfortably with the understandable but perhaps impossible desire of many medical publications that at least all the statistical hypothesis testing has to be classical non-Bayesian—i.e. it is not permitted to use any (subjective) prior knowledge. (shrink)

given at the 2007 Formal Epistemology Workshop at Carnegie Mellon June 2nd. Good compression must track higher vs lower probability of inputs, and this is one way to approach how simplicity tracks truth.

We present a minimum message length (MML) framework for trajectory partitioning by point selection, and use it to automatically select the tolerance parameter ε for Douglas-Peucker partitioning, adapting to local trajectory complexity. By examining a range of ε for synthetic and real trajectories, it is easy to see that the best ε does vary by trajectory, and that the MML encoding makes sensible choices and is robust against Gaussian noise. We use it to explore the identification of (...) micro-activities within a longer trajectory. This MML metric is comparable to the TRACLUS metric – and shares the constraint of abstracting only by omission of points – but is a true lossless encoding. Such encoding has several theoretical advantages – particularly with very small segments (high frame rates) – but actual performance interacts strongly with the search algorithm. Both differ from unconstrained piecewise linear approximations, including other MML formulations. (shrink)

We criticise Shepard's notions of “invariance” and “universality,” and the incorporation of Shepard's work on inference into the general framework of his paper. We then criticise Tenenbaum and Griffiths' account of Shepard (1987b), including the attributed likelihood function, and the assumption of “weak sampling.” Finally, we endorse Barlow's suggestion that minimum message length (MML) theory has useful things to say about the Bayesian inference problems discussed by Shepard and Tenenbaum and Griffiths. [Barlow; Shepard; Tenenbaum & Griffiths].

The advent of formal definitions of the simplicity of a theory has important implications for model selection. But what is the best way to define simplicity? Forster and Sober ([1994]) advocate the use of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), a non-Bayesian formalisation of the notion of simplicity. This forms an important part of their wider attack on Bayesianism in the philosophy of science. We defend a Bayesian alternative: the simplicity of a theory is to be characterised in terms of Wallace's (...) class='Hi'>Minimum Message Length (MML). We show that AIC is inadequate for many statistical problems where MML performs well. Whereas MML is always defined, AIC can be undefined. Whereas MML is not known ever to be statistically inconsistent, AIC can be. Even when defined and consistent, AIC performs worse than MML on small sample sizes. MML is statistically invariant under 1-to-1 re-parametrisation, thus avoiding a common criticism of Bayesian approaches. We also show that MML provides answers to many of Forster's objections to Bayesianism. Hence an important part of the attack on Bayesianism fails. (shrink)

This discussion note responds to objections by Twardy, Gardner, and Dowe to my earlier claim that empirical data sets are algorithmically incompressible. Twardy, Gardner, and Dowe hold that many empirical data sets are compressible by Minimum Message Length technique and offer this as evidence that these data sets are algorithmically compressible. I reply that the compression achieved by Minimum Message Length technique is different from algorithmic compression. I conclude that Twardy, Gardner, and Dowe fail (...) to establish that empirical data sets are algorithmically compressible.Keywords: Algorithmic compression; Algorithmic randomness; Empirical data; Huffman compression; Minimum Message Length technique. (shrink)

James McAllister’s 2003 article, “Algorithmic randomness in empirical data” claims that empirical data sets are algorithmically random, and hence incompressible. We show that this claim is mistaken. We present theoretical arguments and empirical evidence for compressibility, and discuss the matter in the framework of Minimum Message Length (MML) inference, which shows that the theory which best compresses the data is the one with highest posterior probability, and the best explanation of the data.

The advent of formal definitions of the simplicity of a theory has important implications for model selection. But what is the best way to define simplicity? Forster and Sober ([1994]) advocate the use of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), a non-Bayesian formalisation of the notion of simplicity. This forms an important part of their wider attack on Bayesianism in the philosophy of science. We defend a Bayesian alternative: the simplicity of a theory is to be characterised in terms of Wallace's (...) class='Hi'>Minimum Message Length (MML). We show that AIC is inadequate for many statistical problems where MML performs well. Whereas MML is always defined, AIC can be undefined. Whereas MML is not known ever to be statistically inconsistent, AIC can be. Even when defined and consistent, AIC performs worse than MML on small sample sizes. MML is statistically invariant under 1-to-1 re-parametrisation, thus avoiding a common criticism of Bayesian approaches. We also show that MML provides answers to many of Forster's objections to Bayesianism. Hence an important part of the attack on Bayesianism fails. 1. Introduction2. The Curve Fitting Problem2.1 Curves and families of curves2.2 Noise2.3 The method of Maximum Likelihood2.4 ML and over-fitting3. Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC)4. The Predictive Accuracy Framework5. The Minimum Message Length (MML) Principle5.1 The Strict MML estimator5.2 An example: The binomial distribution5.3 Properties of the SMML estimator5.3.1 Bayesianism5.3.2 Language invariance5.3.3Generality5.3.4 Consistency and efficiency5.4 Similarity to false oracles5.5 Approximations to SMML6. Criticisms of AIC6.1 Problems with ML6.1.1 Small sample bias in a Gaussian distribution6.1.2 The von Mises circular and von Mises—Fisher spherical distributions6.1.3 The Neyman–Scott problem6.1.4 Neyman–Scott, predictive accuracy and minimum expected KL distance6.2 Other problems with AIC6.2.1 Univariate polynomial regression6.2.2 Autoregressive econometric time series6.2.3 Multivariate second-order polynomial model selection6.2.4 Gap or no gap: a clustering-like problem for AIC6.3 Conclusions from the comparison of MML and AIC7. Meeting Forster's objections to Bayesianism7.1 The sub-family problem7.2 The problem of approximation, or, which framework for statistics?8. ConclusionA. Details of the derivation of the Strict MML estimatorB. MML, AIC and the Gap vs. No Gap ProblemB.1 Expected size of the largest gapB.2 Performance of AIC on the gap vs. no gap problemB.3 Performance of MML in the gap vs. no gap problem. (shrink)

Traditional statistical model evaluation typically relies on goodness-of-fit testing and quantifying model complexity by counting parameters. Both of these practices may result in overfitting and have thereby contributed to the generalizability crisis. The information-theoretic principle of minimum description length addresses both of these concerns by filtering noise from the observed data and consequently increasing generalizability to unseen data.

We prove that the problem of determining the minimum propositional proof length is NP- hard to approximate within a factor of 2 log 1 - o(1) n . These results are very robust in that they hold for almost all natural proof systems, including: Frege systems, extended Frege systems, resolution, Horn resolution, the polynomial calculus, the sequent calculus, the cut-free sequent calculus, as well as the polynomial calculus. Our hardness of approximation results usually apply to proof length (...) measured either by number of symbols or by number of inferences, for tree-like or dag-like proofs. We introduce the Monotone Minimum (Circuit) Satisfying Assignment problem and reduce it to the problems of approximation of the length of proofs. (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:THIS MESSAGE IS FOR YOU. MAYBE. by Joseph Agassi There is a mood often enough conjured in science fiction literature to be familiar to every fan, the mood of seemingly intentional yet probably remdom contact between two individuals across immense space-time expanses. The hero of a complicated chase story has lost contact with the mother planet, has long ago leuided on a strange pleuiet, emd there, right now, (...) just walking across the plaza he sees a huge poster, with a piece of commercial advertisement or some similar message of purely local import printed on it. The poster is decorated with an arabesque which puzzles him, quickens his pulse, intrigues him, fascinates him — until it hits him insteinteuneously in full force: the arabesque is a message, written in his own native language, telling him how to reestablish contact. The story, as I say, has many veurietnts. And it has, it seems, a very widespread appeal. It is couched in terms of adventure stories, but its mood is not diat of adventure. The mood is more of die one associated with the idea of the eterned return, die idea of timelessness or of time standing still (and space vanishing), the idea the western philosophies usually associate with the ideas of Nicholas, the Renaissance mystic bishop ofCusa, though it is a recurrent idea in many cultures, of the identity of the vanishingly smedl and the infinitely large. Indeed, the meeting of the message and the recipient is symbolized by the meeting of the infinite line and the point of vanishing length. Whence this universality? I suppose it is a fact of biological nature. Think of the scent a living thing, be it a fish or em emtelope, leaves behind to contact a possible mate. It is a few complex molecules in a sea of molecules of astronomical numbers: just this room contains more molecules than you can imagine. And the animal follows a long tortuous path to find its mate. According to Willietm Craig and Konrad Lorenz, an animal does not have the slightest clue what it is after. Even while building a nest it has no complete 95 96Philosophy and Literature picture of its task. In each of its stages it goes after diverse kinds of things, yet it knows not which things, let alone their inborn rigidly fixed sequence. Yet the animal in charge of a tetsk, whether of finding a mate or of finding a twig for a nest, will be resdess — say Craig and Lorenz — and move about, and try to read the message in any piece of arabesque, until one day one piece of arabesque will med«: sense and enable its finder to complete die next step in the mysterious complex task and open up die search for the next message, the next step further along die unfolding series of preordained ordeals that life is strewn widi. Consider writing proper, like my writing this message for you right now. We do not know the background to literacy, much less its actual origins, except that these were far from unique: though many cultures eire illiterate or have acquired literacy from more evolved neighbors, mere eire many places on earth where literacy evolved independently. Yet even here we see a sequence: many independent ideographic scripts, some ofthem evolving into syllabic scripts and one or two of these evolving into an alphabet proper. How and why, we do not know. There is room for speculation, though. It is hard to imagine how the very first writer conceived of the very first message he wrote without consulting his recipient first. There are a few possible explemations here. First, that writer and recipient are one: writing was a form ofmemorizing, or ofconsigning matters to memory more stable than that of the human brain — the granite rock, for instance. The ancient Egyptian god of literacy was the god of memory. Primitive shepherds use knots in their rope and cuts on their sticks as aides memoire, as bookkeeping of sorts, and scholars consider these the origins of writings. This is evidenced by the runic writings of the Norse, whose letters are images of sticks with cuts on them. Yet runic writing is alphabetic and... (shrink)

We survey the best known lower bounds on symbols and lines in Frege and extended Frege proofs. We prove that in minimum length sequent calculus proofs, no formula is generated twice or used twice on any single branch of the proof. We prove that the number of distinct subformulas in a minimum length Frege proof is linearly bounded by the number of lines. Depthd Frege proofs ofm lines can be transformed into depthd proofs ofO(m d+1) symbols. (...) We show that renaming Frege proof systems are p-equivalent to extended Frege systems. Some open problems in propositional proof length and in logical flow graphs are discussed. (shrink)

"I feel that art has something to do with the achievement of stillness in the midst of chaos. A stillness which characterizes prayer, too, and the eye of the storm. I think that art has something to do with an arrest of attention in the midst of distraction.1" "Saul Bellow"IntroductionAlthough analyses of artworks are limited in Adorno's oeuvre, I will argue that his critical theory is awash with images crystallizing thoughts to such a degree that it has every reason to (...) be described as aesthetic. Adorno's first and final book-length publications dealt explicitly with…. (shrink)

This article reviews current methods for evaluating models in the cognitive sciences, including theoretically based approaches, such as Bayes factors and minimum description length measures; simulation approaches, including model mimicry evaluations; and practical approaches, such as validation and generalization measures. This article argues that, although often useful in specific settings, most of these approaches are limited in their ability to give a general assessment of models. This article argues that hierarchical methods, generally, and hierarchical Bayesian methods, specifically, can (...) provide a more thorough evaluation of models in the cognitive sciences. This article presents two worked examples of hierarchical Bayesian analyses to demonstrate how the approach addresses key questions of descriptive adequacy, parameter interference, prediction, and generalization in principled and coherent ways. (shrink)

This paper presents a computational model of the way humans inductively identify and aggregate concepts from the low-level stimuli they are exposed to. Based on the idea that humans tend to select the simplest structures, it implements a dynamic hierarchical chunking mechanism in which the decision whether to create a new chunk is based on an information-theoretic criterion, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. We present theoretical justifications for this approach together with results of an experiment in which (...) participants, exposed to meaningless symbols, have been implicitly encouraged to create high-level concepts by grouping them. Results show that the designed model, called hereafter MDLChunker, makes precise quantitative predictions both on the kind of chunks created by the participants and also on the moment at which these creations occur. They suggest that the simplicity principle used to design MDLChunker is particularly efficient to model chunking mechanisms. The main interest of this model over existing ones is that it does not require any adjustable parameter. (shrink)

This is the first book-length treatment in English of Bultmann's theology. The intention, achievements and consequences of his attempt to 'de-mythologize' the Christian scriptures are evaluated in detail, and his borrowings from Heidegger are closely examined. The book centers on Bultmann's contention that the traditional statement of the Christian message is incompatible with modern scientific and philosophical thought. The presentation, while highly critical of the results, seems both fair and well-founded, thus providing a good introduction to a viewpoint (...) which has stirred up one of the greatest controversies since the beginnings of the 'Higher Criticism.' An important book.--D. D. O. (shrink)

It is shown that the postulation of a minimum length for the horizons of a black hole leads to lower bounds for the electric charges and magnetic moments of elementary particles. If the minimum length has the order of the Planck scale, these bounds are given, respectively, by the electronic charge and by \. The latter implies that the masses of fundamental particles are bounded above by the Planck mass, and that the smallest non-zero neutrino mass (...) is \eV. A precise estimation in agreement to the area quantisation of Loop Quantum Gravity predicts a mass for the lightest massive state in concordance with flavor oscillation measurements, and a Barbero–Immirzi parameter in accordance to horizon entropy estimations. (shrink)

Natural language is full of patterns that appear to fit with general linguistic rules but are ungrammatical. There has been much debate over how children acquire these “linguistic restrictions,” and whether innate language knowledge is needed. Recently, it has been shown that restrictions in language can be learned asymptotically via probabilistic inference using the minimum description length (MDL) principle. Here, we extend the MDL approach to give a simple and practical methodology for estimating how much linguistic data are (...) required to learn a particular linguistic restriction. Our method provides a new research tool, allowing arguments about natural language learnability to be made explicit and quantified for the first time. We apply this method to a range of classic puzzles in language acquisition. We find some linguistic rules appear easily statistically learnable from language experience only, whereas others appear to require additional learning mechanisms (e.g., additional cues or innate constraints). (shrink)

Almost all messenger RNAs carry a polyadenylate tail that is added in a post‐transcriptional reaction. In the nuclei of animal cells, the 3'‐end of the RNA is formed by endonucleolytic cleavage of the primary transcript at the site of poly (A) addition, followed by the polymerisation of the tail. The reaction depends on specific RNA sequences upstream as well as downstream of the polyadenylation site. Cleavage and polyadenylation can be uncoupled in vitro. Polyadenylation is carried out by poly(A) polymerase with (...) the aid of a specificity factor that binds the polyadenylation signal AAUAAA. Several aditional factors are required for the initial cleavage. A newly discovered poly(A)‐binding protein stimulates poly(A) tail synthesis and may be involved in the control of tail length. Polyadenylation reactions different from this scheme, either in other organisms or under special physiological circumstances, are discussed. (shrink)

This paper develops a normative evaluation of the minimum wage in the light of recent evidence and theory about its effects. It argues that the minimum wage should be evaluated using a consequentialist criterion that gives priority to the jobs and incomes of the worst off. This criterion would be accepted by many different types of consequentialism, especially given the two major views about what the minimum wage does. One is that the minimum wage harms the (...) jobs and incomes of the worst off and the other is that it does neither much harm nor much good. The paper then argues at length that there are no important considerations besides jobs and incomes relevant to the assessment of the minimum wage. It criticizes exploitation arguments for the minimum wage. It is not clear that the minimum wage would reduce exploitation and the paper doubts that, if it did, it would do so in a morally significant way. The paper then criticizes freedom arguments against the minimum wage by rejecting appeals to self-ownership and freedom of contract and by arguing that no freedom of significance is lost by the minimum wage that is not already taken account of in the main consequentialist criterion. The conclusion is that, at worst, the minimum wage is a mistake and, at best, something to be half-hearted about. Footnotes1 My thanks to Paul Brown and Jerry Cohen for their written and verbal help, Andrew Williams for long discussions of this paper, two anonymous referees and the editors, and audiences at the Universities of Auckland, Newcastle, and Reading. (shrink)

SUMMARYDuring the 1970s, widespread scientific interest in the risks of climate change prompted John A. Eddy, an astrophysicist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, to investigate whether sunspots could be used to predict future climate changes. Methodologically, Eddy’s investigations were uniquely historical in nature. By interrogating old manuscripts of solar observations since the early seventeenth century, he identified what appeared to be a correlation between the so-called Maunder Minimum – a virtual cessation of sunspots between (...) 1645 and 1715 – and severely cold temperatures during the Little Ice Age. While he could not identify the physical mechanisms that governed solar-climate relationships, this historical episode fostered his curiosity. Fortuitously, Eddy’s solar-climate research coincided with efforts to use satellites to monitor and record variations in solar energy output, which in context constituted a significant development in managing environmental and technological risk.But using the Maunder Minimum to advance the frontiers of knowledge about solar-terrestrial relationships was not Eddy’s only – or even primary – motivation. In the mid-1840s, German astronomer Heinrich Schwabe discovered what appeared to be a decadal sunspot cycle, the existence of which inspired generations of astrophysicists to more precisely estimate its length as well as determine its underlying causes. Eddy, however, came to believe that the astronomical community failed to consider the implications of subsequent evidence suggesting that Schwabe's solar cycle was not an enduring characteristic of the sun. Instead, he reasoned that evidence offered by nineteenth-century European astronomers Gustav Sporer and Edward Maunder in the 1880s and 1890s had been entirely overlooked. But rather than arguing that their evidence was overlooked in error, Eddy identified what he cast as a conspiracy of wilful ignorance on the part of a staid and conservative astronomical community. By utilizing Eddy's private hand-written notes as they appeared in undergraduate lectures, public speeches and academic talks, as well as his appreciation for the seminal views of sociologist of science Thomas Kuhn, I show that Eddy sought to rectify this injustice by proposing a contrasting vision of science as an interdisciplinary, collaborative and creative process of exploring the ignored areas between scientific disciplines. (shrink)

The Minimum Description Length principle is the modernformalisation of Occam's razor. It has been extensively and successfullyused in machine learning, especially for noisy and long sources ofdata. However, the MDL principle presents some paradoxes andinconveniences. After discussing all these, we address two of the mostrelevant: lack of explanation and lack of creativity. We present newalternatives to address these problems. The first one, intensionalcomplexity, avoids extensional parts in a description, so distributingcompression ratio in a more even way than the (...) MDL principle. The secondone, information gain, forces that the hypothesis is informative wrt. the evidence, so giving a formaldefinition of what is to discover. (shrink)

Several quantitative techniques for choosing among data models are available. Among these are techniques based on algorithmic information theory, minimum description length theory, and the Akaike information criterion. All these techniques are designed to identify a single model of a data set as being the closest to the truth. I argue, using examples, that many data sets in science show multiple patterns, providing evidence for multiple phenomena. For any such data set, there is more than one data model (...) that must be considered close to the truth. I conclude that, since the established techniques for choosing among data models are unequipped to handle these cases, they cannot be regarded as adequate. ‡I presented a previous version of this paper at the 20th Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vancouver, November 2006. I am grateful to the audience for constructive discussion. I thank Leiden University students Marjolein Eysink Smeets and Lenneke Schrier for suggesting the cortisol example, and Remko van der Geest for comments on a draft. †To contact the author, please write to: Faculty of Philosophy, University of Leiden, P.O. Box 9515, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands; e-mail: [email protected]. (shrink)

Science is increasingly becoming automated. Tasks yet to be fully automated include the conjecturing, modifying, extending and testing of hypotheses. At present scientists have an array of methods to help them carry out those tasks. These range from the well-articulated, formal and unexceptional rules to the semi-articulated and variously understood rules-of-thumb and intuitive hunches. If we are to hand over at least some of the aforementioned tasks to machines, we need to clarify, refine and make formal, not to mention computable, (...) even the more obscure of the methods scientists successfully employ in their inquiries. The focus of this essay is one such less-than-transparent methodological rule. I am here referring to the rule that ad hoc hypotheses ought to be spurned. This essay begins with a brief examination of some notable conceptions of ad hoc-ness in the philosophical literature. It is pointed out that there is a general problem afflicting most such conceptions, namely the intuitive judgments that are supposed to motivate them are not universally shared. Instead of getting bogged down in what ad hoc-ness exactly means, I shift the focus of the analysis to one undesirable feature often present in alleged cases of ad hoc-ness. I call this feature the ‘monstrousness’ of a hypothesis. A fully articulated formal account of this feature is presented by specifying what it is about the internal constitution of a hypothesis that makes it monstrous. Using this account, a monstrousness measure is then proposed and somewhat sketchily compared with the minimum description length approach. (shrink)

This study investigates the joint influences of three factors on the discovery of new word‐like units in a continuous artificial speech stream: the statistical structure of the ongoing input, the initial word‐likeness of parts of the speech flow, and the contextual information provided by the earlier emergence of other word‐like units. Results of an experiment conducted with adult participants show that these sources of information have strong and interactive influences on word discovery. The authors then examine the ability of different (...) models of word segmentation to account for these results. PARSER (Perruchet & Vinter, 1998) is compared to the view that word segmentation relies on the exploitation of transitional probabilities between successive syllables, and with the models based on the Minimum Description Length principle, such as INCDROP. The authors submit arguments suggesting that PARSER has the advantage of accounting for the whole pattern of data without ad‐hoc modifications, while relying exclusively on general‐purpose learning principles. This study strengthens the growing notion that nonspecific cognitive processes, mainly based on associative learning and memory principles, are able to account for a larger part of early language acquisition than previously assumed. (shrink)

Due to the complexity of the network structure, log analysis is usually necessary for the maintenance of network-based distributed systems since logs record rich information about the system behaviors. In recent years, numerous works have been proposed for log analysis; however, they ignore temporal relationships between logs. In this paper, we target on the problem of mining informative patterns from temporal log data. We propose an approach to discover sequential patterns from event sequences with temporal regularities. Discovered patterns are useful (...) for engineers to understand the behaviors of a network-based distributed system. To solve the well-known problem of pattern explosion, we resort to the minimum description length principle and take a step forward in summarizing the temporal relationships between adjacent events of a pattern. Experiments on real log datasets prove the efficiency and effectiveness of our method. (shrink)

We conducted a computer-based psychological experiment in which a random mix of 40 tautologies and 40 non-tautologies were presented to the participants, who were asked to determine which ones of the formulas were tautologies. The participants were eight university students in computer science who had received tuition in propositional logic. The formulas appeared one by one, a time-limit of 45 s applied to each formula and no aids were allowed. For each formula we recorded the proportion of the participants who (...) classified the formula correctly before timeout and the mean response time among those participants. We propose a new proof formalism for modeling propositional reasoning with bounded cognitive resources. It models declarative memory, visual memory, working memory, and procedural memory according to the memory model of Atkinson and Shiffrin and reasoning processes according to the model of Newell and Simon. We also define two particular proof systems, T and NT, for showing propositional formulas to be tautologies and non-tautologies, respectively. The accuracy was found to be higher for non-tautologies than for tautologies ( p T was.89 and for non-tautologies the correlation between latency and minimum proof length in NT was.87. (shrink)

Many models of evolution are implicitly causal processes. Features such as causal feedback between evolutionary variables and evolutionary processes acting at multiple levels, though, mean that conventional causal models miss important phenomena. We develop here a general theoretical framework for analyzing evolutionary processes drawing on recent approaches to causal modeling developed in the machine-learning literature, which have extended Pearls do-calculus to incorporate cyclic causal interactions and multilevel causation. We also develop information-theoretic notions necessary to analyze causal information dynamics in our (...) framework, introducing a causal generalization of the Partial Information Decomposition framework. We show how our causal framework helps to clarify conceptual issues in the contexts of complex trait analysis and cancer genetics, including assigning variation in an observed trait to genetic, epigenetic and environmental sources in the presence of epigenetic and environmental feedback processes, and variation in fitness to mutation processes in cancer using a multilevel causal model respectively, as well as relating causally-induced to observed variation in these variables via information theoretic bounds. In the process, we introduce a general class of multilevel causal evolutionary processes which connect evolutionary processes at multiple levels via coarse-graining relationships. Further, we show how a range of fitness models can be formulated in our framework, as well as a causal analog of Prices equation, clarifying the relationships between realized/probabilistic fitness and direct/indirect selection. Finally, we consider the potential relevance of our framework to foundational issues in biology and evolution, including supervenience, multilevel selection and individuality. Particularly, we argue that our class of multilevel causal evolutionary processes, in conjunction with a minimum description length principle, provides a conceptual framework in which identification of multiple levels of selection may be reduced to a model selection problem. (shrink)

The relevance of smart speakers is steadily increasing, allowing users perform several daily tasks. From a commercial perspective, smart speakers also provide recommendations of products and services that may influence the consumer decision-making process. However, previous studies have mainly focused on the adoption of smart speakers, but there is a lack of proper guidelines that help design the way these devices should offer their consumption recommendations. Based on a stimulus-organism-response approach, we analyze how two features of smart speakers' recommendations influence (...) on the effectiveness of such recommendations through its impact on user engagement and attitude. Data was collected from a sample of undergrad students in Spain using an experiment design that focused on a restaurant recommendation, and analyzed using partial least squares. On the one hand, our results suggests that gender congruence generates user engagement with the smart speaker. On the other hand, message length is positively related to attitudes towards the restaurant, at a declining rate. In addition, while better attitudes lead to higher visiting intentions, the influence of engagement on visiting intentions is partially mediated via attitudes. Thus, our findings contribute to understand the antecedents of users' engagement with smart speakers, as well as its impact on the customers' willingness to follow smart speakers' recommendations, constituting a base to analyze the impact of artificial intelligence solutions aimed to smooth the transitions of a customer through the stages of purchase process. (shrink)

It has been argued that the existence of a minimum observable interval of space and time is a model-independent result of the combination of quantum field theory and general relativity. In this paper, I promote this result to a fundamental postulate, called the MOIST postulate. It is argued that the postulate leads to the existence of a maximum signal speed and its invariance. This new result may have two interesting implications. On the one hand, it suggests that the MOIST (...) postulate can explain the invariance of the speed of light, and thus it might provide a deeper logical foundation for special relativity. Moreover, it suggests that the speed constant c in modern physics is not the actual speed of light in vacuum, but the ratio of the minimum observable length to the minimum observable time interval. On the other hand, the result also suggests that the existing experiments confirming the invariance of the speed of light already provide observational evidence to support the MOIST postulate. (shrink)

The sunspot data seems to indicate that the Sun is likely to enter Maunder Minimum, then it will mean that low Sun activity may cause low temperature in Earth. If this happens then it will cause a phenomenon which is called by some climatology experts as “The Little Ice Age” for the next 20-30 years, starting from the next few years. Therefore, the Earth climate in the coming years tend to be cooler than before. This phenomenon then causes us (...) to ask: what can we do as human being in Earth to postpone or avoid the worsening situation in terms of Earth cooling temperature in the coming years? We think this is a more pressing problem for the real and present danger that we are facing in the Earth. What we are suggesting in this paper is that perhaps it is possible to model Sun-Earth interaction in terms of Shannon entropy. Since Shannon entropy can be expressed as bits of information, then it would mean that perhaps we can do something with Earth temperature by controlling the amount of information transfer and storage in the Earth. This proposal is somewhat in resemblance with message of a 2012 movie “A Thousand words” where we shall strive to love our neighbours and nature, instead of being absorbed in a culture of less-meaningful fast-talk (starred by Eddie Murphy). (shrink)

Children learn their native language by exposure to their linguistic and communicative environment, but apparently without requiring that their mistakes be corrected. Such learning from “positive evidence” has been viewed as raising “logical” problems for language acquisition. In particular, without correction, how is the child to recover from conjecturing an over-general grammar, which will be consistent with any sentence that the child hears? There have been many proposals concerning how this “logical problem” can be dissolved. In this study, we review (...) recent formal results showing that the learner has sufficient data to learn successfully from positive evidence, if it favors the simplest encoding of the linguistic input. Results include the learnability of linguistic prediction, grammaticality judgments, language production, and form-meaning mappings. The simplicity approach can also be “scaled down” to analyze the learnability of specific linguistic constructions, and it is amenable to empirical testing as a framework for describing human language acquisition. (shrink)

Determining optimal units of representing morphologically complex words in the mental lexicon is a central question in psycholinguistics. Here, we utilize advances in computational sciences to study human morphological processing using statistical models of morphology, particularly the unsupervised Morfessor model that works on the principle of optimization. The aim was to see what kind of model structure corresponds best to human word recognition costs for multimorphemic Finnish nouns: a model incorporating units resembling linguistically defined morphemes, a whole-word model, or a (...) model that seeks for an optimal balance between these two extremes. Our results showed that human word recognition was predicted best by a combination of two models: a model that decomposes words at some morpheme boundaries while keeping others unsegmented and a whole-word model. The results support dual-route models that assume that both decomposed and full-form representations are utilized to optimally process complex words within the mental lexicon. (shrink)

Like a message in a bottle, How Is Critical Economic Theory Possible? originally written in the late 1960s in Hungarian, has recently arrived on the shores of critical theory in the form of an English translation. As a critique of Marx’s economic determinism, the authors aim to set Marxist thinking on a more realistic path. This article looks first, at what the authors think are flawed premises in Marx’s work. Second, I sketch the contemporary economic context of a global (...) digital economy to point at issues a critical economic theory inevitably has to contend with today to prove its relevance. Finally, I argue that Maria Márkus’s ideas of a politicisation of needs and civil/decent society make a significant contribution to a potential answer to How Is Critical Economic Theory Possible? and also advance the idea of a mixed economy with the goal to sustain an economic order that allows a maximum of economic and political freedom while simultaneously reducing economic and political inequalities to a minimum. (shrink)

We consider the astrophysical and cosmological implications of the existence of a minimum density and mass due to the presence of the cosmological constant. If there is a minimum length in nature, then there is an absolute minimum mass corresponding to a hypothetical particle with radius of the order of the Planck length. On the other hand, quantum mechanical considerations suggest a different minimum mass. These particles associated with the dark energy can be interpreted (...) as the “quanta” of the cosmological constant. We study the possibility that these particles can form stable stellar-type configurations through gravitational condensation, and their Jeans and Chandrasekhar masses are estimated. From the requirement of the energetic stability of the minimum density configuration on a macroscopic scale one obtains a mass of the order of 1055 g, of the same order of magnitude as the mass of the universe. This mass can also be interpreted as the Jeans mass of the dark energy fluid. Furthermore we present a representation of the cosmological constant and of the total mass of the universe in terms of ‘classical’ fundamental constants. (shrink)

The singular message in Global Health Law is that we must strive to achieve global health with justice—improved population health, with a fairer distribution of benefits of good health. Global health entails ensuring the conditions of good health—public health, universal health coverage, and the social determinants of health—while justice requires closing today’s vast domestic and global health inequities. These conditions for good health should be incorporated into public policy, supplemented by specific actions to overcome barriers to equity. A new (...) global health treaty grounded in the right to health and aimed at health equity—a Framework Convention on Global Health —stands out for its possibilities in helping to achieve global health with justice. This far-reaching legal instrument would establish minimum standards for universal health coverage and public health measures, with an accompanying national and international financing framework, require a constant focus on health equity, promote Health in All Policies and global governance for health, and advance the principles of good governance, including accountability. While achieving an FCGH is certainly ambitious, it is a struggle worth the efforts of us all. The treaty’s basis in the right to health, which has been agreed to by all governments, has powerful potential to form the foundation of global governance for health. From interpretations of UN treaty bodies to judgments of national courts, the right to health is now sufficiently articulated to serve this role, with the individual’s right to health best understood as a function of a social, political, and economic environment aimed at equity. However great the political challenge of securing state agreement to the FCGH, it is possible. States have joined other treaties with significant resource requirements and limitations on their sovereignty without significant reciprocal benefits from other states, while important state interests would benefit from the FCGH. And from integrating the FCGH into the existing human rights system to creative forms of compliance and enforcement and strengthened domestic legal and political accountability mechanisms, the treaty stands to improve right to health compliance. The potential for the FCGH to bring the right to health nearer universal reality calls for us to embark on the journey towards securing this global treaty. (shrink)

Robert C. Neville, Dean of Theology and Professor of Philosophy, Boston University, in his comments on Chuang-Tzu for Spiritual Transformation for the State University of New York press: ‘The present outstanding volume by Robert Allinson ... initiates a new direction ... His new direction for understanding Chuang-Tzu is his comprehensive and detailed argument that Chuang Tzu was advocating an ideal of sageliness. Whereas many interpreters have claimed that Chuang Tzu used his metaphorical language to defend a relativism, Allinson shows with (...) convincing mastery that Chuang Tzu had a position, namely, the importance of achieving the ideal of sageliness ... he brings the discussion of Chuang Tzu into the heart of contemporary Western philosophy. Professor Allinson’s book, like his many articles, contributes to the growing body of literature that is creating an effective dialogue between Chinese and Western philosophy. The sophistication of this book demonstrates that the dialogue has worked and that we are in a new era of substantive comparative philosophy ... he also makes a substantial contribution to the philosophy of religion. Currently in its 8th impression, "Chuang-Tzu for Spiritual Transformation: An Analysis of the Inner Chapters" has been translated into Chinese and Korean. This book offers a fundamentally new interpretation of the philosophy of the Chuang-Tzu. It is the first full-length work of its kind which argues that a deep level cognitive structure exists beneath an otherwise random collection of literary anecdotes, cryptic sayings, and dark allusions. The author carefully analyzes myths, legends, monstrous characters, paradoxes, parables and linguistic puzzles as strategically placed techniques for systematically tapping and channeling the spiritual dimensions of the mind. Allinson takes issue with commentators who have treated the Chuang-Tzu as a minor foray into relativism. Chapter titles are re-translated, textual fragments are relocated, and inauthentic, outer miscellaneous chapters are carefully separated from the transformatory message of the authentic, inner chapters. Each of the inner chapters is shown to be a building block to the next so that they can only be understood as forming a developmental sequence. In the end, the reader is presented with a clear, consistent and coherent view of the Chuang-Tzu that is more in accord with its stature as a major philosophical work. (shrink)

The paper describes at length and then discusses critically Frederick Schauer's analysis of rules in his recent book Playing By the RuZes. For most of the book Schauer discusses rules in general, and only at the end talks about legal rules in particular. The chief message of Schauer's analysis is that rules permit, and even constitute, a particular kind of decision‐making, one that quite deliberately insulates the decision‐taker from considerations of what would be in the circumstances the best (...) justified decision to take. Rules are thus for Schauer devices for the allocation of decision‐making power: The effect of A delegating to B the power to decide by a set of rules devised by A is that A retains much control over B 's decision‐making. Schauer canvasses the claims of what he calls “presumptive positivism” to be a theory of law which embodies such a view of legal rules. In his criticism, the author compares Schauer's view with Joseph Raz's notion of legal rules as exclusionary reasons. The author then compares “presumptive positivism” with some other recent versions of positivism and the idea of rules as devices for the allocation of power with theories of law in the Critical Legal Studies movement. (shrink)

An important link between model theory and proof theory is to construe a deductive disproof of S as an attempted construction of a countermodel to it. In the function logic outlined here, this idea is implemented in such a way that different kinds of individuals can be introduced into the countermodel in any order whatsoever. This imposes connections between the length of the branches of the tree that a disproof is and their number. If there are already n individuals (...) in the countermodel that is being constructed, the next individual has to be considered in its relations to each of the n old ones, creating 2^n different cases and accordingly at least 2^n different branches. Hence a disproof procedure of a polynomial length is normally not equivalent with an exponential one. Because every computation can be represented as a deduction with the same number of constant terms, the same holds for nondeterministic computations. Apparent exceptions seem to come about if a branch created by a new individual i is redundant. But when the disproof is a shortest one (contains the minimum number of different constant terms) then not introducing that idle term at all would result in an even shorter disproof, violating the shortness assumption. (shrink)

The role of the light postulate in special relativity is reexamined. The existing theory of relativity without light shows that one can deduce Lorentz-like transformations with an undetermined invariant speed based on homogeneity of space and time, isotropy of space and the principle of relativity. However, since the transformations can be Lorentzian or Galilean, depending on the finiteness of the invariant speed, a further postulate is needed to determine the speed in order to establish a real connection between the theory (...) and special relativity. In this paper, I argue that a certain discreteness of space-time, whose existence is strongly suggested by the combination of quantum theory and general relativity, may result in the existence of a maximum and invariant speed when combing with the principle of relativity, and thus it can determine the finiteness of the speed in the theory of relativity without light. According to this analysis, the speed constant c in special relativity is not the actual speed of light, but the ratio between the minimum length and the shortest time of discrete space-time. This suggests a more complete theory of relativity, the theory of relativity in discrete space-time, which is based on the principle of relativity and the constancy of the minimum size of discrete space-time. (shrink)

Guidelines for submitting commentsPolicy: Comments that contribute to the discussion of the article will be posted within approximately three business days. We do not accept anonymous comments. Please include your email address; the address will not be displayed in the posted comment. Cell Press Editors will screen the comments to ensure that they are relevant and appropriate but comments will not be edited. The ultimate decision on publication of an online comment is at the Editors' discretion. Formatting: Please include a (...) title for the comment and your affiliation. Note that symbols may not transmit properly in this form due to potential software compatibility issues. Please spell out the words in place of the symbols. Comments should be no more than 8,000 characters in length. References may be included when necessary but should be kept to a minimum. Be careful if copying and pasting from a Word document. Smart quotes can cause problems in the form. If you experience difficulties, please convert to a plain text file and then copy and paste into the form. (shrink)

Representationalism is a thesis about the phenomenal character of experiences, about their immediate subjective ‘feel’.1 At a minimum, the thesis is one of supervenience: necessarily, experiences that are alike in their representational contents are alike in their phenomenal character. So understood, the thesis is silent on the nature of phenomenal character. Strong or pure representationalism goes further. It aims to tell us what phenomenal character is. According to the theory developed in Tye 1995, phenomenal character is one and the (...) same as representational content that meets certain further conditions. One very important motivation for this theory is the so-called ? transparency of experience.? The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the appeal to transparency more carefully than has been done hithertofore, to make some remarks about the introspective awareness of experience in light of this appeal, and to consider one problem case for transparency at some length, that of blurry vision. Along the way, I shall also address some of the remarks Stephen Leeds makes in his essay on transparency. (shrink)

The design of the bronchial tree has largely been proposed as a model of optimal design from a physical-functional perspective. However, the distributive function of the airway may be more related to a geometrical than a physical problem. The bronchial tree must distribute a three dimensional volume of inspired air on a two dimensional alveolar surface, included in a limited volume. It is thus valid to ask whether an optimal bronchial tree from a physical perspective is also optimum from a (...) geometrical point of view. In this paper we generate a simple geometric model for the branching pattern of the bronchial tree, deducing relationships that permit estimation of the departures from the geometrical optimum of each bifurcation. We also, for comparative purposes, estimate the departures from the physical optimum. From the geometrical assumptions: i) a symmetrical dichotomic fractal design, ii) with minimum volume and iii) maximum dispersion of the terminal points; and several simulations we suggest that the optimality is characterized by a bifurcation angle Θ ∼ 60° and a length reduction scale γ = (1/2)1/3 = 0.7937. We propose distances from the physical and geometrical optimality defined as Euclidean distances from the expected optima. We show how the advanced relationships and the distances can be used to estimate departures from the optimality in bronchographs of four species. We found lower physical and geometrical departures in the distal zone than those of the proximal zones, as well as lower physical than geometrical departures from optimality. (shrink)

This is a reprint of an article in a collection edited by Cristopher Cowton and Roger Crisp, Business Ethics: Perspectives on the Practice of Theory (1998). The article reflects on (a) the tension between aprioristic applied philosophy --geared to thought experiments constructible in the armchair-- and applied philosophy informed by contact with relevant practitioners; and (b) the tension between the content of business ethics and the receptiveness of a business audience to its moralising messages. The contrast between business ethics and (...) medical ethics in these respects is discussed at some length. (shrink)

To explain the interaction of stillness and motion of thought, Nicholas Cusanus formulated his renowned comparison with a cosmographer, which through five gateways, corresponding to the five senses, receives information about the world in the form of messages. What follows therefrom is not directly an analysis of the world but of the Creator, whom the philosopher mirrors in himself as a creator of scientific symbols.Cusanus was repeatedly suspected of Pantheism. What is crucial, however, for the critique of reasonning is the (...) parallelism, that God's omnipresence in his creation corresponds to a universal capacity of the human mind to perceive everything by means of a hypothetical otherness . Therefrom proceeds the general projection that everything can be seen in mathematical terms. Mathematical calculating, working with figures, reducing to units, leads Cusanus to God's creative power as much as to the functioning of the intellect.However, his renowned mental experiments on the minimum and maximum were purely in pursuit of the goal of describing the fluid frontiers of defined thought. This is also true of his cosmology. Cusanus argued mathematically in order to prove the non-mathematical and the non-realistic. (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Reviewed by:Dining Posture in Ancient Rome: Bodies, Values, and StatusJeremy RossiterMatthew B. Roller. Dining Posture in Ancient Rome: Bodies, Values, and Status. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006. xvi + 219 pp. 8 color plates. 18 black-and-white figs. Cloth, $39.50.As the author of this volume is quick to point out, a book-length study focusing solely on how the Romans sat, or reclined, at table might not seem like the (...) most compelling reading, even for a specialist reader. Could something so abstruse really warrant such an extensive study? Clearly the author thinks so, and to support his view he starts with some bold claims of what the book promises to accomplish. One of the key aims of the book is to redefine our understanding of Roman dining practices; to challenge the orthodox views presented in the "handbooks" (by which the author seems to mean principally the second edition of Marquardt and Mau's Das Privatleben der Römer, Leipzig 1886) and to replace them with a more measured interpretation of the evidence, not just of the few familiar texts that are often cited in the handbooks but rather of the full range of texts, images, and other source material that contribute in one way or another to what we know about Roman dining. Why do this? Because, Roller argues, the orthodox view is wrong. It depends on too little information, it pays too little attention to the evidence of images, and it fails to see the important link between dining custom and social values. These are bold assertions, the credibility of which can only be judged by comparing the orthodox view of Roman dining practices with the "new" picture of Roman dining given by Roller and by evaluating the methodology he uses to reach his conclusions.What then is the orthodox view of Roman dining posture? Roller summarizes it as follows (4–5): free adult males reclined, free adult women sat (during the Republic) but later reclined (during the Empire), free children sat, and slaves stood. Fast forward to the end of the book (177) and we find a rather different assessment: "persons of any age, sex or status might actually assume, or be represented as assuming, various positions under different circumstances." What Roller does here is to deconstruct the simplistic assertions of the handbooks and replace them with a more nuanced interpretation of the evidence. However, his conclusions, although different from the standard view, are not an entirely radical departure. As he admits, "normal" dining practices can be detected: "certain postures attach persistently to certain categories of person" (178). Free adult males are "normally" represented as reclining, free adult women and children are "commonly" shown either sitting or reclining, and slaves "normally" stand. But the point Roller makes is that these dining postures are not rigid; they are not rules. Indeed there are so many exceptions to the norms, both in the texts and in the images, that one has to question the veracity of these so-called "normal" patterns of behavior. The more important question, as Roller is at pains to emphasize, is to determine the ideology that underlies the texts and images. Why do the sources show what they show? What is their intended message?One of the recurring arguments of this book is that reclining as a dining posture in Roman times always marked social privilege. It was a sign of otium. It [End Page 596] singled the diner out as a member of the elite, as someone with wealth, leisure, and access to "the good life." References in literature and art to reclining diners provide reinforcement of this privileged status. Elite males set the standard for everyone else. Those who did not belong to this class, particularly the subelites, the people just below the upper crust of Roman society, could express their aspirations to elite status by depicting themselves as reclining at dinner, regardless of whether they actually did so in practice.A large part of this book is devoted to the question of women at table. It is here that the evidence is the most convoluted; equally it is here that Roller offers some challenging new insights. He argues... (shrink)