There is no doubt that a negative perception of financial risk and a lack of credit risk management adversely impact business growth and business owners’ wellbeing. Past studies suggest that most Nigerian traders have poor risk perceptions and manage risk poorly. A business coaching program within rational-emotive behavior therapy framework was evaluated in order to determine its effects on financial risk perception and credit risk management among Nigerian traders. This study (...) used an open-label parallel randomized control design. This 8-weeks coaching program had 60 traders in the REBT-based business coaching group and 59 traders in the control group. The mixed-model repeated measures ANOVA was utilized for analysis of the study data. Results show that relative to a control group, traders’ financial risk perception [F = 637.29, p < 0.001, ω2 = 0.69] and credit risk management [F = 795.51, p < 0.001, ω2 = 0.80] significantly improved after participating in REBT-based business coaching program. This study shows that REBT-based business coaching program is integral to increasing financial risk perception and credit risk management among Nigerian traders. This study contributes to the advancement of business coaching program within the rational-emotive behavior therapy framework for market traders, and its application in similar situations. The study considered the benefits of business coaching program for market traders from a developing country, which is a rarely studied group. It is highly recommended that professionals study the relationship between REBT-based business coaching and economic decision-making within various organizational contexts. (shrink)

This article examines the epistemology of risk assessment in the context of financial modelling for the purposes of making loan underwriting decisions. A financing request for a company in the paper and pulp industry is considered in some detail. The paper and pulp industry was chosen because it is subject to some specific risks that have been identified and studied by bankers, investors and managers of paper and pulp companies and certain features of the industry enable analysts to quantify (...) the impact of specific risk events of a given dimension on a company's future financial performance. While companies in other industries may be subject to similar risk factors, the impact of risk events may be more difficult to gauge in those industries. The ability of financial analysts to model the impact of a risk event, and hence quantify a credit risk, increases the predictive accuracy of the model. I argue that bankers and regulators should recognise the uncertainty associated with unquantifiable credit risk in financial models, and they should view this uncertainty as a credit risk factor in and of itself. Evaluating the relative degree to which credit risk is quantifiable in financial models is a potentially significant yet largely unrecognised tool for credit risk management. I consider some possible applications of this assessment tool for managing risk within the banking industry. (shrink)

The author identifies the major micro-, meso-, and macro-level financial risk shifting factors that contributed to the Great Global Recession and how the absence of a compelling moral vision of responsible financial risk management perpetuated the economic crisis and undermined the recovery by blind reliance upon insufficiently accountable bailouts. The author offers a new theoretical model of Sustainable Stakeholder Capitalism by exercising moral imagination which inclusively and moderately balances four multi-level factors: types of capitalism, moral theories, human (...) nature drives, and credit risk profiles. Finally, the author recommends micro-, meso-, and macro-level practical reforms to prevent a recurrence of the current economic freefall, to re-create systemic global financial institution integrity, and to promote responsible risk management for sustainable global prosperity for current and future generations. (shrink)

This article tries to seek a solution to the problem of NPA in the small scale industries under the present circumstances of banking and insurance working together under the same roof. What is stressed in this article is the pressing need of the small-scale entrepreneur for becoming aware and educated in modern business management holding a professional attitude toward rational decision-making and banks have to facilitate that process as a part of the credit policy sold by them.

This study revisits the relation between corporate performance and corporate social responsibility in the context of a major shift in firms’ credit risk status. Relying on corporate credit rating as a performance indicator, we examine whether firms under the scrutiny of rating agencies trade-off CSR engagement for credit quality improvement. To explore whether firms adjust their CSR engagement after a focal rating change, we focus on the investment–speculative grade threshold because of its importance in accessing the (...) public debt market. We find that firms that lose the investment grade rating subsequently increase CSR engagement. We also uncover that improving CSR engagement helps firms restore their credit ratings ex post. Our findings support the view of CSR engagement as a valuable risk management strategy. (shrink)

Appropriate concerns about cost and unequal access to healthcare have resulted in the creation of powerful managed networks seeking to share the risks of high healthcare costs among plans, providers, and patients. Much to their credit, these managed networks have slowed the rise in healthcare spending by as much as 44% in markets with high HMO penetration. However, whether these savings will materially improve access and quality remains to be seen.

The government debt portfolio is usually the largest financial portfolio in the country. It often contains complex and risky financial structures and can generate significant risk to the state budget and the country’s financial stability. Therefore, governments are required to have sound risk management and sound public debt structures to limit exposure to market risk, debt financing or rolling risk, liquidity risk, credit, settlement and operational risk. In recent years, the debt market (...) crises have highlighted the importance of sound public debt management practices and related risks, and the need for an effective and well-developed domestic capital market. This may reduce the vulnerability of the economy to adverse economic and financial shocks. However, it is also important for the government to maintain a macroeconomic policy that ensures sound fiscal and monetary management. The aim of the research is to present the theoretical and practical aspects of extremely important issues such as public debt management and to indicate the most important implications for the financial stability of the country on the example of the Polish economy. The study uses a research method based on literature studies in the field of macroeconomics, economic policy and finance, as well as statistical analysis of the studied phenomenon. Results of research indicate that effective public debt management can reduce the economy’s vulnerability to financial threats, contribute to the financial stability of the country, maintain debt stability and protect the government’s reputation among investors. (shrink)

The rapid development of credit default swap market has changed the manner of credit risk management of banks to some extent and has had a new influence on the bank-enterprise credit model. In this study, the credit financing process of credit risk in small- and medium-sized enterprises gathers within a bank, which makes it difficult for SMEs to raise funds. On the basis of the perspective of CDS, we construct an incentive game (...) model of bank-enterprise credit behavior and analyze the influence mechanism of the credit financing of SMEs on CDS contract coupon rate, CDS payout ratio, bank-enterprise credit effort, and loan recovery rate when considering CDS. The result shows that the CDS contract leads to insufficient supervision after a bank loan, the moral hazard of the SMEs rises, and the probability of credit default events increases. In addition, in view of CDS, the SMEs can access more credit funds. (shrink)

Unethical acts and reported cases of corruption and commercial crimes in South African business are increasing. Literature studies showed that risk groups (for instance South African managers in affirmative action positions) are functioning in a stressful environment which can give rise to unethical acts. Results pointed out that high stress correlates substantially with: to claim credit for a subordinate's work; to fail to report a co-worker's violation of company policy, to offer potential clients fully paid holidays; and to (...) purchase shares upon hearing privileged company information. In the light of this a number of recommendations were made. (shrink)

Within the banking community, the argument about sustainability and profitability tends to be inversely related. Our research suggests this does not need to be strictly the case. We present a credit score system based on sustainability issues, which is used as criteria to improve financial institutions’ lending policies. The Sustainability Credit Score System is based on the analytic hierarchy process methodology. Its first implementation is on the agricultural industry in Brazil. Three different firm development paths are identified: business (...) as usual, sustainable business, and future sustainable business. The following six dimensions are present in the SCSS: economic growth, environmental protection, social progress, socio-economic development, eco-efficiency, and socio-environmental development. The results suggest that sustainability is not inversely related to profit either from a short- or long-term perspective. The SCSS is related to the Equator Principles, but its application is not driven to project financing. It also deals with short- and long-term risks and opportunities, instead of short-term sustainability impacts. (shrink)

This paper explores the potential for systematic scrutiny of the language of top management to reveal signals of possible deceptive conduct. The language used in letters signed by Ramalinga Raju, Chair of the Indian multi-national company Satyam, are analysed using a multi-method quantitative approach. We explore the language in Raju’s annual report letters from 2002–2003 to 2007–2008; and in his letter of January 7, 2009 in which he confessed to deceptive conduct. We analyse the frequency of personal pronouns, the (...) tone of positivity or negativity, the frequency of words of extreme emotion and aspects of the characteristics of language use indicated by the DICTION 5.0 text analysis master variable, CERTAINTY. The text of Raju’s letters appears to have been influenced by his self-confessed deceptive behaviour. Raju’s word choice changed noticeably in his five annual report letters prior to the collapse of Satyam as the scale and impact of his financial misstatements increased. The methods presented should be considered for adoption by auditors and regulators—as a way of assessing whether signals emerging from language use warrant closer (including audit) scrutiny of a firm’s financial reporting and governance. They should also be considered for use by monitors of entity risk, such as credit rating agencies and financial analysts. (shrink)

ABSTRACT Though accused by critics of helping to cause the current financial crisis, credit‐default swaps are blameless. The accusation is understandable, however, given misunderstandings about how a credit‐default swap actually works. A careful look into its mechanism shows that it is not only simpler than thought, but that it is also vital to keeping the financial system strong by enabling financial institutions to better manage their risks. The risk taken on in a credit‐default swap (CDS) is (...) no different from the risk of making the underlying loan. CDSs allow risks to be spread more widely instead of being concentrated at vulnerable points, but they do not add to the total amount of risk. (shrink)

This article investigates the nexus between bank-specific risks and the financial stability of the banks for a panel data set of 15 scheduled banks in Pakistan over a 12-year period from 2009 to 2020. Using the fixed-effect model, the study result shows that bank-specific risks, i.e., credit risk and liquidity risk are detrimental to bank stability, whereas funding risk has no significant impact on bank stability. Besides these, bank size has also a negative impact on bank (...) stability, whereas the return on assets revealed a positive influence. To ensure stability, bank management should establish policies that confirm secure loan granting and timely reimbursement from customers to minimize the credit risk. Besides this, management should keenly observe the liquidity position and should also effectively mobilize the customer deposits to attain financial stability. (shrink)

This paper contends that Marx develops in Volume III of Capital an incisive conceptual framework in which excessive credit creation, indebtedness and speculation play a critical and growing role in the reproduction of social capital on an extended basis; however, given the decentralised and anarchic nature of capitalist production, the credit system does so in a highly erratic and contradictory manner which only postpones the inevitable day of reckoning. The paper also highlights Marx's relatively neglected but highly important (...) analysis of the separation of ownership from management in the advanced capitalism of his day, England, and its modern-day implications for excessive risk-taking and debt-fuelled speculation up until the eve of the crash. More importantly, the paper argues that in Volumes II and III, Marx implicitly connected the expanding role of credit (which he associated with the development of capitalism) to a significant reduction in the turnover period of capital, thereby boosting the rate of surplus-value, and countering in a highly erratic and contradictory manner, the fall in the rate of profit. The growing role of credit has been relatively ignored in the Marxian literature as an important counteracting factor to the law of the declining rate of profit. It is not mentioned at all by Marx in his famous Chapter XIV, Vol. III of Capital where he discusses other important counteracting forces to the falling rate of profit, nor by Engels (in this particular context) who edited both Volumes II and III. (shrink)

We provide insight into how firms’ trade credit decisions respond to the coevolution of business ethics practices, technological innovation, and institutional reform for firms located in pilot cities of China’s social credit reform. The reform implements an external monitoring mechanism that potentially shifts the business ethics frontier by punishing or rewarding certain (un)ethical credit behaviors. Following the reform, pilot city firms enjoy greater access to trade credit financing. Three plausible channels include reduced default risk, improved (...) information quality, and enhanced legal protection. Suppliers provide more credit to young, small, private, politically unconnected firms, and those with geographically distant suppliers. Finally, we illustrate how increased access to trade credit translates into tangible strategic and performance benefits. Overall, this study underscores the importance of aligning business ethics practices with evolving societal values and technological advancements to facilitate companies’ willingness to provide trade credit within emerging markets. (shrink)

The issues of the optimum rate between risk and profitability of bank business have been investigated. The bank operation peculiarities in risk and uncertain conditions are studied. There has been revealed a matter of risk as bank and economic term, it has been presented interlink between various risks and the necessity to improve the managerial process by bank credit risk has been justified. Practical algorithms for solving problems on possible bank credit risks prognosis have (...) been considered and there has been justified the reasonability of their using by banks at practical assessment of creditability of a borrower. A situational simulation of the part of bank's overdue loan debts under different conditions was carried out. The variants of possible developments of bank's credit portfolio during financial crisis were forecasted using conventional examples. According to the calculation banks have been offered to develop their own credit strategy by simulating various situations choosing the most convenient as to risk value as well as to minimize their credit risks and improving an assessment of creditability of borrowers in addition to assessment models, developed by a bank, well-known assessment models of the bankruptcy probabilities, which, by comparing all of them, give the clear picture of possible financial deterioration in future and to use A-calculation method which is based considering subjective factors which, not less than objective ones, can indicate the risk of the loan debts. (shrink)

We study the effect of scarcity on decision making by low income Swedes. We exploit the random assignment of welfare payments to study their borrowing decisions within the pawn and mainstream credit market. We document that higher educated borrowers borrow less frequently and choose lower loan to value ratios when their budget constraints are exogenously tighter. In contrast, low-educated borrowers do not respond to temporary elevated levels of scarcity. This lack of response translates into a significantly higher probability to (...) default and an 11.6% increase in borrowing cost. We show that a difference in access to liquidity and/or buffer stocks cannot explain our results. Instead a framework, where the awareness of self-control problems is positively correlated with education can explain that high-educated consumers choose a lower LTV as a commitment device to increase their likelihood to repay. Analogously, low-educated with less awareness of their future self-control problems, do not tie themselves to the mast and thus ignore the consequences of their credit decisions when focusing on solving acute liquidity problems. Our findings highlight that increased levels of scarcity risk reinforcing the conditions of poverty through overborrowing. (shrink)

Recent research suggests that many microfinance institutions increasingly focus on financial performance at the expense of the social component of their dual objectives. Existing studies typically assume that capital providers and managers mainly drive this so-called mission drift. In this study, we investigate whether ‘personal mission drift’ at the credit officer level can further explain the reduced emphasis on poorer clients among microfinance institutions. We present both qualitative and quantitative evidence that more experienced credit officers tend to serve (...) fewer vulnerable clients. Specifically, we show that all else being equal, credit officer experience is negatively correlated with the provision of small loans, loans to young clients, and loans to clients with disabilities. Our qualitative analysis suggests that perceived client risk and preferences for increased time efficiency mainly drive more experienced credit officers’ relative neglect of more vulnerable clients. This drift appears to be reinforced by the industry’s incentive schemes. Therefore, credit officer incentives and training should be designed to prevent this mission drift, which is observed at the microfinance institution level but is actually initiated at the credit officer level. (shrink)

This article documents the response of cooperative institutions that were required to adhere to new capital adequacy regulations traditionally geared for profit-maximising organisations. Using data from the Australian credit union industry, we demonstrate that the cooperative philosophy and internal corporate governance structure of cooperatives will lead management to increase capital adequacy ratios through the application of accounting window dressing techniques. This is opposite to the intended purpose of template regulation aimed at efficiently increasing operating margins and lowering (...) class='Hi'>risk. Our results raise several debatable issues regarding the ethics of accounting management and the imposition of one-shoe-fits-all external regulation. (shrink)

This paper argues that some of the major theories in current business ethics fail to provide an adequate account of moral responsibility for the creation of systemic financial risk. Using the trading of credit default swaps (CDS) during the 2008 financial crisis as a case study, I will formulate three challenges that these theories must address: the problem of risk imposition, the problem of unstructured collective harm and the problem of limited knowledge. These challenges will be used (...) to work out key shortcomings of stakeholder approaches and Integrative Social Contracts Theory. I will argue that pluralist connection models used in political theory can help to overcome these shortcomings. Adopting an approach based on these models shows that financial institutions incur obligations in five main areas: managing their own risk profile; remedying some of the harms caused by financial crises; supporting the development of better epistemic methods; curbing the transmission and amplification of initial losses; and instigating structural reforms. (shrink)

Risk management of nanotechnology is challenged by the enormous uncertainties about the risks, benefits, properties, and future direction of nanotechnology applications. Because of these uncertainties, traditional risk management principles such as acceptable risk, cost–benefit analysis, and feasibility are unworkable, as is the newest risk management principle, the precautionary principle. Yet, simply waiting for these uncertainties to be resolved before undertaking risk management efforts would not be prudent, in part because of the (...) growing public concerns about nanotechnology driven by risk perception heuristics such as affect and availability. A more reflexive, incremental, and cooperative risk management approach is required, which not only will help manage emerging risks from nanotechnology applications, but will also create a new risk management model for managing future emerging technologies. (shrink)

The relationship of corporate social responsibility to risk management has been treated sporadically in the business society literature. Using real options theory, I develop the notion of corporate social responsibility as a real option its implications for risk management. Real options theory allows for a strategic view of corporate social responsibility. Specifically, real options theory suggests that corporate social responsibility should be negatively related to the firm’s ex ante downside business risk.

Risk management is certainly one of the most important professional responsibilities of an engineer. As such, this activity needs to be combined with complex ethical reflections, and this requirement should therefore be explicitly integrated in engineering education. In this article, we analyse how this nexus between ethics and risk management is expressed in the engineering education research literature. It was done by reviewing 135 articles published between 1980 and March 1, 2016. These articles have been selected (...) from 21 major journals that specialize in engineering education, engineering ethics and ethics education. Our review suggests that risk management is mostly used as an anecdote or an example when addressing ethics issues in engineering education. Further, it is perceived as an ethical duty or requirement, achieved through rational and technical methods. However, a small number of publications do offer some critical analyses of ethics education in engineering and their implications for ethical risk and safety management. Therefore, we argue in this article that the link between risk management and ethics should be further developed in engineering education in order to promote the progressive change toward more socially and environmentally responsible engineering practices. Several research trends and issues are also identified and discussed in order to support the engineering education community in this project. (shrink)

Accelerating global climate change drives new climate risks. People around the world are researching, designing, and implementing strategies to manage these risks. Identifying and implementing sound climate risk management strategies poses nontrivial challenges including (a) linking the required disciplines, (b) identifying relevant values and objectives, (c) identifying and quantifying important uncertainties, (d) resolving interactions between decision levers and the system dynamics, (e) quantifying the trade-offs between diverse values under deep and dynamic uncertainties, (f) communicating to inform decisions, and (...) (g) learning from the decision-making needs to inform research design. Here we review these challenges and avenues to overcome them. ▪ People and institutions are confronted with emerging and dynamic climate risks. ▪ Stakeholder values are central to defining the decision problem. ▪ Mission-oriented basic research helps to improve the design of climate risk management strategies. (shrink)

Fallacious anthropomorphic attributions such as 'risky technology' take ethical accountability out of the hands of managers and relegate it to the deterministic or accidental outcomes of complex 'high risk technology'. Equally fallacious mechanistic terms such as 'organisational inertia' are borrowed from physics to apply to human organisations. The responsibility for ethically accountable decision-making is taken out of human hands and either ascribed to the mythological entity "Technology" or to the mythological bureaucratic organisation which functions as if it follows the (...) laws of physics. I argue in contrast that disasters can be prevented by demythologising the belief systems that pervade risk management literature. Risk management must reclaim ethical accountability by replacing notions such as 'risky technology', 'high risk technology', 'risky work' and 'bureaucratic drift' with 'risky assessment', 'risky management', 'risky choice' and 'multiple responsibility'. (shrink)

This article explores how Anglo-American financial firms since the 1980s have operated and acted in an increasingly deregulated, risky, and uncertain arena. I look at these firms and their actions with a particular focus on “temporality” and requisite “emotion-rules,” where variations in emotion-rules correspond with organizational definitions of uncertainty. Firms impose specific emotion-rules, depending on national policies, official duties, and interpretations of each risk. In finance, caveat emptor (i.e., buyer or lender distrust) is an emotion-rule set in screening policies (...) and data collection for credit risks and risks of fraud by personnel, and it gives rise to actual emotions. I argue that three time-orientations are significant in creating emotion-rules. If a past, present, or a long-term future is deployed to construct a future, that creates and frames an institution’s attempts to manage uncertainty. Looking exclusively at Anglo-American corporate finance policies and strategies (often deemed the international “one best way”), six modes of certainty constructions are presented. Each is assessed against the dispositions and emotional strategies required in highly-skilled careers, in specific organizational settings. The relative influence of individual perspectives, institutional rules and general typologies of social action is assessed and found to comprise one past view, three present views, and one future-oriented perspective towards the future. Implications are outlined for emotion-rules relevant to financial careers and office. (shrink)

William F. Doverspike, PhD, is a licensed psychologist who holds a Diplomate in Clinical Psychology (ABPP) and he is also board certified in Neuropsychology (ABPN). He is an Associate Faculty member of the Georgia School of Professional Psychology, where he teaches graduate courses in professional ethics. As an independent practitioner, he maintains privileges at several local hospitals. He is a member of the Ethics Committee of the Georgia Psychological Association. Dr. Doverspike is Editor of the Georgia Psychologist magazine and has (...) authored over 50 articles and chapters. He conducts seminars on ethics, risk management, and diagnostic consultation. (shrink)

Investment Science, Second Edition, provides thorough and highly accessible mathematical coverage of the fundamental topics of intermediate investments, including fixed-income securities, capital asset pricing theory, derivatives, and innovations in optimal portfolio growth and valuation of multi-period risky investments. Eminent scholar and teacher David G. Luenberger, known for his ability to make complex ideas simple, presents essential ideas of investments and their applications, offering students the most comprehensive treatment of the subject available. New to this edition Three new chapters: Risk (...) Management, Credit Risk, and Data and Statistics Updated content and expanded coverage of many topics, including the capital asset pricing model, projection pricing, the Black-Scholes equation, computational methods, real options, the characterization of volatility, parameter estimation, and portfolio design New exercises reflecting advances in theory and practice provide opportunities to explore a wide range of concepts. (shrink)

Although enterprise risk management (ERM) has many benefits for corporations, there has been virtually no discussion of the extent to which its practice may be said to constitute corporate social responsibility. This article presents a prima facie case for the convergence of the two and examines this case through a consideration of four possible objections or challenges. The conclusion of this article is a tempered optimism that ERM has the significant, but as yet untapped, potential to constitute socially (...) responsible activity, which, if realized, would enable Adam Smith's invisible hand of the marketplace to have an expanded sweep. (shrink)

The key concept in Business Ethics has changed from ‘corporate social responsibility’ to ‘integrated risk‐management’. This change, first wrought by American laws, has been extended to other countries through globalization. The most important laws concern corruption, anti‐trust, consumer safety, environmental protection and insider‐trading. The ‘Federal Corporate Sentencing Guidelines’ have particularly been helpful in identifying and valuing business risks. The author proposes a ‘next‐generation’ Business Ethics integrating personal, professional and organizational ethics in the context of an institutionalized, country‐sensitive ‘corporate (...) culture’. (shrink)

Risk management has become a vital topic both in academia and practice during the past several decades. Most business intelligence tools have been used to enhance risk management, and the risk management tools have benefited from business intelligence approaches. This introductory article provides a review of the state-of-the-art research in business intelligence in risk management, and of the work that has been actepted for publication in this issue.

Although risk and uncertainty are inevitable aspects of the sustainability problem, they are often neglected in the sustainability discourse, especially in the economic analysis of sustainable development. We argue that this deprives the sustainability discourse of interesting connections to risk management. We show that defining sustainability as the obligation to limit the risk of harming future individuals provides a framework in which tools from risk management, like mean-variance analysis, can be employed to analyze planning (...) decisions and to calculate a risk-minimizing policy mix. Furthermore, we discuss whether such a notion of sustainability can be an ethically tenable sustainability concept and how a positive probability of harming future individuals might be defended. (shrink)

Ethical dilemmas involving tax issues were identified by members of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants as posing the most difficult ethical problem for them (Finn et al., Journal of Business Ethics 7(8), pp. 607–609, 1988). The KPMG tax shelter fraud case proves that the tax profession has not gone untainted in the age of numerous accounting and corporate scandals, such as the Enron débâcle (Sikka and Hampton, Accounting Forum 29(3), 325–343, 2005). High-profile scandals serve to highlight the problems (...) caused by differences in ethical judgement among accountants and tax practitioners and the issue of ethics has been brought publicly to the forefront of the profession. Nevertheless, the nature and dimension of ethical issues in tax practice have been largely unexplored (Erard, Journal of Public Economics 52(2), 163–197, 1993; Marshall et al., Journal of Business Ethics 17(12), 1265–1279, 1998; Frecknall Hughes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, The University of Leeds, 2002). This research aims to contribute to the debate on ethics in tax practice by reporting interview data on tax practitioners’ perceptions of ethics in the jurisdictions of Ireland and the United Kingdom and exploring the link or equation of ethics with risk management. (shrink)

Risks allow a probability calculation; uncertainties do not. The incalculability of uncertainties may depend on many different factors. It may be that one does not have all the relevant information and that by collecting more information one may eventually deduce the distribution of the relevant events. However, this chapter’s claim is stronger than that: it claims that uncertain events are such that no increase of available information will allow their treatment as risks. The uncertainty of uncertain events is structural and (...) does not depend on a lack of information. We shall distinguish uncertainty arising from incomplete knowledge from uncertainty inherent in the system. The former is a kind of risk, the latter is uncertainty proper. Risk and uncertainty pertain to two different classes of events and there is no crossable boundary between them.The vast majority of future events are uncertain in the sense specified. Put otherwise, only a tiny minority of future events are amenable to probability assessments.The difference between risks and uncertainties shows that the expression “risk management” is far from adequate, since it explicitly refers only to risks and sidelines uncertainties. On the other hand, both risks and uncertainties should be addressed. By adding a reference to anticipation, the expression “anticipatory risk management” suggests a perhaps less inadequate coverage of the field. (shrink)

The likely near future creation of artificial superintelligence carries significant risks to humanity. These risks are difficult to conceptualise and quantify, but malicious use of existing artificial intelligence by criminals and state actors is already occurring and poses risks to digital security, physical security and integrity of political systems. These risks will increase as artificial intelligence moves closer to superintelligence. While there is little research on risk management tools used in artificial intelligence development, the current global standard for (...) risk management, ISO 31000:2018, is likely used extensively by developers of artificial intelligence technologies. This paper argues that risk management has a common set of vulnerabilities when applied to artificial superintelligence which cannot be resolved within the existing framework and alternative approaches must be developed. Some vulnerabilities are similar to issues posed by malicious threat actors such as professional criminals and terrorists. Like these malicious actors, artificial superintelligence will be capable of rendering mitigation ineffective by working against countermeasures or attacking in ways not anticipated by the risk management process. Criminal threat management recognises this vulnerability and seeks to guide and block the intent of malicious threat actors as an alternative to risk management. An artificial intelligence treachery threat model that acknowledges the failings of risk management and leverages the concepts of criminal threat management and artificial stupidity is proposed. This model identifies emergent malicious behaviour and allows intervention against negative outcomes at the moment of artificial intelligence’s greatest vulnerability. (shrink)

This paper addresses the phenomenon of incomplete preferences in disaster risk management. If an agent finds two options to be incomparable and thus has an incomplete preference ordering, i.e., neither prefers one option over the other nor finds them equally as good, it is not possible for the agent to perform a value tradeoff, necessary for an informed decision, between these two options. In this paper we suggest a way to model incomplete preference orderings by means of probabilistic (...) preferences, and how to reveal an agent’s incomplete preference ordering within a behaviorist framework. (shrink)

In the paper we consider an electricity provider company that makes decision on allocating resources on electric network maintenance. The investments decrease malfunction rate of network nodes. An accidental event or a malfunctioning on underground system can have various consequences and in different perspectives, such as deaths and injuries of pedestrians, fires in nearby locations, disturbances in the flow of vehicular traffic, loss to the company image, operating and financial losses, etc. For this reason it is necessary to apply an (...) approach of the risk management that considers the multidimensional view of the consequences. Furthermore an analysis of decision making should consider network dependencies between the nodes of the electricity distribution system. In the paper we propose the use of the simulation to assess the network effects in the multidimensional risk assessment in electricity grid. The analyzed effects include node overloading due to malfunction of adjacent nodes and blackouts that take place where there is temporarily no path in the grid between the power plant and a node. The simulation results show that network effects have crucial role for decisions in the network maintenance – outcomes of decisions to repair a particular node in the network can have significant influence on performance of other nodes. However, those dependencies are non-linear. The effects of network connectivity on its multidimensional performance assessment depend heavily on the overloading effect level. The simulation results do not depend on network type structure – however simulation outcomes for random networks have shown higher variance compared to small-world networks. (shrink)

This revised 2nd edition of Engineering Risk Management presents engineering aspects of risk management. After an introduction to potential risks the authors presents management principles, risk diagnostics, analysis and treatments followed by examples of practical implementation in chemistry, physics and emerging technologies such as nanoparticles.

Using the work of Jacques Ellul on technique and its development, this paper criticizes the technological risk management discourse, which claims that risks are “managed” within reasonable limits. In fact, the inevitability of technological change and the uncertainty associated with technology-induced environmental risks, some of which are still totally unknown, undermine the very possibility of democratic governance of risk. Our reliance on technique and the common belief in its infallibility make it particularly arduous to the follow the (...) path showed by Ellul. (shrink)

It is widely recognized that endocrine disrupting compounds, such as Bisphenol A, pose challenges for traditional paradigms in toxicology, insofar as these substances appear to have a wider range of low-dose effects than previously recognized. These compounds also pose challenges for ethics and policymaking. When a chemical does not have significant low-dose effects, regulators can allow it to be introduced into commerce or the environment, provided that procedures and rules are in place to keep exposures below an acceptable level. This (...) option allows society to maximize the benefits from the use of the chemical while minimizing risks to human health or the environment, and it represents a compromise between competing values. When it is not possible to establish acceptable exposure levels for chemicals that pose significant health or environmental risks, the most reasonable options for risk management may be to enact either partial or complete bans on their use. These options create greater moral conflict than other risk management strategies, leaving policymakers difficult choices between competing values. (shrink)

This very short paper highlights some of my recent and forthcoming work on “good epistemic practices” in the financial services industry. It identifies some epistemic dimensions of risk management in banking and illustrates how managing for good epistemic practices might be helpful.

This volume explores various aspects of risk taking. It offers an analysis of financial, entrepreneurial and social risks, as well as a discussion of the ethical implications of empirical findings. The main issues examined in the book are the financial crisis and its implications for business ethics. The book discusses unethical behaviour as a reputational risk (e.g., in the case of Goldman Sachs) and the question is raised as to what extent the financial crisis has changed the banks’ (...) entrepreneurial strategy. The book presents an analysis of the reasons leading to the crisis and identifies them as ethical dilemma structures. In addition, it looks at general questions regarding ethical behaviour and risk taking, such as: To what extent does the social embeddedness or abstraction play a role in guaranteeing ethical behaviour? What conclusions can be drawn from institutional or evolutionary perspectives on risk management? Finally, the book discusses further issues that become factors of risk within and between societies, such as work insecurity, corruption or the problem of facilitation payments as a risk in international transactions. (shrink)

Lack of supportive workplaces may be depriving babies and mothers of the health advantages of breastfeeding. This citizen science pilot project set out to engage women in photographing and sharing information on the available facilities for breastfeeding and expressing and storing breastmilk in Australian workplaces. While some useful insights were gained, the project failed in the sense that 234 people ‘liked’ the project Facebook page set up to recruit participants, but only nine photographs were submitted. The heaviest loss of participation (...) occurred after the ethics committee requirements were explained, in particular, the requirement for employer consent to take a photograph, or alternatively, for a participant to agree to bear the risk of taking a photo without permission. The ethics committee also made stipulations about the formality of language to be used. Thus, the project’s potential role as an enabler for health action was neutered. We argue that the ethics requirements worked contrary to our purpose and possibly acted to reinforce the powerlessness some women experience at work. (shrink)

Risk, ethics and compliance requirements are a daily reality for most organisations. Regulators and stakeholders (including employees) demand more of most organisations, from equality, to anti-corruption, to supply chain ethics. Start-ups stutter and unicorns crash to earth when they get risk wrong. What should be done? Where should you start? How can risk management enable, not hinder, the organization's strategic goals? This book answers these questions -- rightsizing risk for every organization -- using frontline-tested tools, (...) tips, and techniques. Whether you're a purpose-driven changemaker or just struggling to comply with a seemingly unending stream of regulation, we will make risk work for you. (shrink)